1st weekend in July (South Island)

[Razor]

Still raining in town, about 22mm overnight. 3 degrees, but clearing soon I think

[Razor]

Looks like an awesome snowfall through Tekapo Basin on the Mt John webcam!

[Janos]

Hamner/Methven/Arthurs pass parts of Central have all had quite a nice dumping.

[Brassnz]

I'm off to my old stomping ground, Christchurch, this afternoon for a couple of days. The odd snow flurry in the city wouldn't go astray but sounds unlikely now, sadly from my perspective. Next week it's off to the Netherlands for a week, where temps will be rather warmer I believe!

(Incidentally I'll be competing there in the world brass band championships with the National Band of New Zealand - we have our only NZ concert this Sunday arvo in the Salvation Army Citadel in Chch if anyone's interested in coming along...)

[Razor]

Its hard to say any exciting weather hitting you Brassnz. Maybe drizzly rain and about 5 or 6 degrees.

[Storm Struck]

Only 12mm out this way in the end looks like the rain stuck around Christchurch for quite some time, sure is cold today though with that southerly last night was nicer because it was a fresh NE wind.
This weekend well doesnt look great really as it was intially showing there would need to be some dramatic change in the positioning of the lows, otherwise same old usual for us.
Turn the page maybe next weekend .

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yeah something needs to change. I really cant understand why the Metservice has moderate confidence of hevay snow aout inland canterbury even. There simply is not the mositure levels at all, infact there seems more about the coast if anything and GFS is picking under 10mm for the 2-3 day period anyways. 500 thickness values too high as well for me.

[Storm Struck]

The reason is because of the E-SE flow Mark directing the flow inland where sheltered places,valleys etc are most likly to recieve good amounts of snowfall.
It doesnt matter if there is bugger all on the models, just look at Monday out this way 16mm of rain from heavy showers,hail,sleet in a SE flow the models predicted hardly any precip.
Hanmer Springs might be a good place if you want to see snow more or so on Sunday i would imagine.

[mikestormchaser]

Well hanmer we go then!! Mark you up for that? haha
some areas i suppose might be worth a drive on Sunday morning i guess.
Woke up to an absolutely freezing morning though, i drove past a thermometer around 7am and it was showing 0C and the rain had only just started to clear.. hmm i wonder if there was anything MORE then just rain this morning in that case.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Haha, im up for chasing snow anyday! You know me! Unfortuanetly i am off to westport though early monday morning for 4 days, however hopefully the system lasts a bit longer into Late Monday so can see snow snow through the lewis pass, shall see. Will take the digital cam with me though.

[landd650]

Hi, Im new to register with the site but have been following all your weather predictions for many weeks as a guest. At 10pm tonight there was a huge halo around the moon - seen from Rolleston. Is this a sign of strong winds on the way - the halo later broke open in a south westerly direction. It has got to be the biggest halo I have ever seen - others have been very close to the moon.

[trickytiger]

A misty ring or a band around either the sun or moon is a sign of bad weather to follow. A halo around the moon is a sign of wind. The open side of the halo tells the area of the sky from which the wind or rain may soon come. If the moon is lying on its back, which is typical in February, in the northern hemisphere is can mean snow soon, in the southern hemisphere it can mean a dry period. A dark blue sky that looks gloomy means it will be windy, but a light blue sky means fine weather. A bright yellow sky at sunset indicates wind, a pale yellow, wet. A pale moon means rain, a reddish moon means wind. If the moon's outline is not clear and you are in an area that gets it, expect rain or snow soon.

Source= predictweather.com

[landd650]

hmmm ok - lets see what the halo brings then!!! it had completely dissapeared by 22.40

[trickytiger]

ok, I couldn't see it from here, but probably because thick drizzle set in here shortly after 6pm and has continued since then

[landd650]

we have just some patchy high cloud and a cold southerly breeze - got a rainbow arond the moon now.

[landd650]

Was keeping my fingers crossed for the snow over the weekend - although it looks like that might be a non starter for us. somehow seems to miss rolleston. last decent dumping we had was back in 2006. It overdue now.

[trickytiger]

I didn't think there'd be snow this whole time, I wouldn't mind another 2006 dump though i'm thinking a good chance for snow may come up end of this month or start of august. Don't have any good enough reasons for this thinking though, just have to wait and see what happens.

[landd650]

nice - the reason I started following the forum was because you all get so excited when there is a chance of snow. Its great - nice to know Im not the only grown up to turn into an excited 10 year old at the hint of snow and the chance to build a snow man

[mikestormchaser]

welcome to the forum landd650

[landd650]

Thanks tornadoman18, I just googled moon halos and moonbows and apparently the ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a warm front by one or two days. Typically, a warm front will be associated with a low pressure system which is commonly referred to as a storm.
It is believed that the number of stars within a moon halo indicate the number days before bad weather will arrive. There was one star in my halo so I will be keeping an eye on things for sunday - we could get the storm after all.

[mikestormchaser]

Thanks tornadoman18, I just googled moon halos and moonbows and apparently the ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a warm front by one or two days. Typically, a warm front will be associated with a low pressure system which is commonly referred to as a storm.
It is believed that the number of stars within a moon halo indicate the number days before bad weather will arrive. There was one star in my halo so I will be keeping an eye on things for sunday - we could get the storm after all.

Lets hope this comes to plan! a good snow storm!

[Lawrence]

Welcome to the forum landd650,nice to be hearing from some more Rollytonians
This system is very complex at the moment and giving me a headache.
There is a Low just East of us at 998 mb,moving South East
I think as the Low to the Southwest of New Zealand moves further North it will allow the presently stationary front to follow suit.
This will be noticed when the wind presently S.S.W will turn S.E. or Easterly.
I'm thinking that thats when the fun could start.
Presently 7.1c here.Baro @ 992mb and steady.
Can't really say what might happen in the next 24 hours.

[Storm Struck]

Well what do you ya know uncle joe , we are a day out if not starting tonight from the system and things are looking slightly better again.
A number of GFS models this morning ive looked at suggest an increase in precipitation levels now which is good, although thk levels need to come down i dont think it will be a problem for low level snow certainly.
I wouldnt rule out seeing sleet or hail in the rain tomorrow now, and again a good dumping inland.
Time will tell though, must say its been nice having the sun this morning breaking through the cloud at times .

[gllitz]

Still not convinced....

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Thick drizzle about an hour and a half ago but nothing at all out there now. Infact atm its rather mild. Nothing much on the rain radar either..