1st weekend in July (South Island)

[Kimkliff]

Maybe another snow event, CRT website predicting some snow. Mr Murphy is working overtime here, as of course, its the start of the school holidays, so there will be snow, as no schools will have to close (and I am a teacher ). Of course, anything extra for the sno' bunnies out there will be appreciated.

[NZstorm]

Not sure about the weekend snow prospects but should be some in Central Otago on Friday with the front crossing.

[Lawrence]

Mod's looking to suggest some good chances of a fair amount of snow to sea level all down the east coast of the south this weekend,been degrading all through the last few runs at 500mb.

Bit of a way out but seems fairly a solid bet at the moment

[David]

I see metservice have a high risk of thunderstorms posted for Auckland and Northland tomorrow night

[Lawrence]

Yes.
This is it folks,the one we have been waiting for.
The sea level snow event for Canterbury.
Everythings on track.
We will not fail with this one,It's our best yet.
I Don't care what anyone says,but we will have snow to less than 100m this weekend.Or at least by Monday

[Razor]

Oh dear....that killed it

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Yes.
This is it folks,the one we have been waiting for.
The sea level snow event for Canterbury.
Everythings on track.
We will not fail with this one,It's our best yet.
I Don't care what anyone says,but we will have snow to less than 100m this weekend.Or at least by Monday

I think we will see some good rain totals from this event. I think snow will fall to about 500-600m from Friday afternoon and lower to 400m Saturday and then to around 200m Sat Night / Sun morning. Sleet to sea level is likely for a time too but to me unfortunately seems a bit too warm for sea level snow. We will see what the 11pm run puts out this evening but i have low confidence of heavy snow to sea level, but moderate to high confidence of heavy snow to 400-500m. Conditions outside are somewhat surprising with fog and clear skies all of a sudden. The forecast is for drizzle and cloud but its very still, clear and fog patches are obvious about the fields.

[Lawrence]

I think snow will fall to about 500-600m from Friday afternoon and lower to 400m Saturday and then to around 200m Sat Night / Sun morning. Sleet to sea level is likely for a time too but to me unfortunately seems a bit too warm for sea level snow. We will see what the 11pm run puts out this evening but i have low confidence of heavy snow to sea level, but moderate to high confidence of heavy snow to 400-500m. Conditions outside are somewhat surprising with fog and clear skies all of a sudden. The forecast is for drizzle and cloud but its very still, clear and fog patches are obvious about the fields.

Yeah your proberly right
Yeah, as you said it's got very clear now and mist and fog patches all round here at the moment.
I think we might wait till the next run, but I've looked at all the old runs on GFS and it seems to be clicking into place quite nicely at the moment with very small margins of errors,Best I've seen this Winter any way.
Certainly excited but could really do with more moisture to make it a good event like you said.
Hopeful of of colder temps at the 500 level, and more moist air moving in from the North.

[Storm Struck]

What you have to remember is its a more SE flow kinda like what Monday did except obviously much more widespread persistant rain Friday/Saturday that is with the snow level around 300m.
This would for a start cause problems inland and about the high country, with the heavy snow falling.
I think there is an interesting point to be made when it comes to the more E-SE flows as apposed to the southerly qaurter or SW.
If i am correct there is a form of more advective influence due to the fact its a cold SE flow, this would bring heavier precipitation values than the models are leading on and would go the same for Sunday, Monday when the values are lower again.
Snow showers later Sunday,and into early Monday do look likly to me at this stage, but i could be wrong.
There will be one problem though and thats i am not so sure how much Christchurch will get as BP may act as a shelter belt like Monday just gone did.
I am with Karsh on this one.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I totally agree that inland will see decent snow falls and yes it will be the talking point as to whether or not Christchurch gets sheltered from BP. Karsh, mositure levels look good but hopefully the moisture stays reasonble into Monday, at this stage it backs right off. However, chain showers are quite likely/possible Monday and i think we will see possible wintry showers Monday morning. Im driving to westport Monday so hope to catch some snow through the lewis pass but it will probably be coastal come Monday.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

11pm run just through and its changed dramatically with just 18mm showing now as oppose to 40mm from 5pm's run. Thickness values all above 532 so snow wont even get below 400m with numbers like that. In fact doesnt look like much moisture or anything now at all. Yet another fizzer? The last 30 days or so have been incredibly dry! Rainfall well below normal with just 28mm for June in my area. Maybe next time folks but i think this one is a flop too! Christchurch just seems to repell the rain !

Ill give it once last chance to change back overnight or im calling it a fizzer. Every system we have had this winter has been a fizzer so far. Its got to change sometime! Check 5am run in morning. Bye for now.

[gllitz]

Oh dear....that killed it

Yup....fizzer.... For coastal Canty, anyway...higher elevations will probably see a decent amount.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This mornings run is even worse again. Infact apart from 5mm forecast later tonight GFS has literally 0mm forecast from Friday onwards. It should be dry from Friday onwards. Absolute non event. Thickness values at 552 so snow to about 1000m lol. Infact the warmest days of the week to come it seems going by those.

[gllitz]

This mornings run is even worse again. Infact apart from 5mm forecast later tonight GFS has literally 0mm forecast from Friday onwards. It should be dry from Friday onwards. Absolute non event. Thickness values at 552 so snow to about 1000m lol. Infact the warmest days of the week to come it seems going by those.

Are we reading the same model runs, Mark? make sure you look at the 0-180 hr option for NZCH...12Z run shows approx 31.6 mm of precip for the period...the SAT/SUN event has quite a bit of precip with it...probably not sea level snow for coastal canty areas, but inland (Oxford, Darfield, Springfield, Methven, etc) stand a good chance of getting a decent amount, I'd say.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This mornings run is even worse again. Infact apart from 5mm forecast later tonight GFS has literally 0mm forecast from Friday onwards. It should be dry from Friday onwards. Absolute non event. Thickness values at 552 so snow to about 1000m lol. Infact the warmest days of the week to come it seems going by those.

Are we reading the same model runs, Mark? make sure you look at the 0-180 hr option for NZCH...12Z run shows approx 31.6 mm of precip for the period...the SAT/SUN event has quite a bit of precip with it...probably not sea level snow for coastal canty areas, but inland (Oxford, Darfield, Springfield, Methven, etc) stand a good chance of getting a decent amount, I'd say.

Hey Glitz

Yeah your quite right. I dont know what the heck i did earlier this morning. It showed 5mm and 552 thickness values. Thought that was a dramatic change this far out! I must have typed the wrong numbers or something in somehow. I dont know how as i use them everyday! Yes i agree with you then. I think inland will see some decent snow falls. With this being easterly before southerly i think this rain could hang around a bit longer than expected or be quite persistent. May get sheltered by BP. See what happens. Drive on the cards this weekend . Wonder if ill hit snow in the Lewis Pass Monday. Probably too coastal come then.

[teanaumalone]

only 7 degrees in Hokitika and I can see snow falling to fairly low elevation moving in from the south now around the hills. I wouldnt be surprised if inland Canterbury does get significant snowfalls in the next few days. I reckon you guys are right in that the models do tend to under do E and SE systems precip for Canterbury. I am heading to Craigieburn tonight so looking forward to our local effect we get from E and ESE systems where it seems to come straight up the Waimak gap and the northern end of the Torlesse Range and socks right into the Craigieburn Valley. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I think much is going to depend on the where the various low centres end up tracking as where the heavier falls end up.

[tich]

Snowing in Wanaka this afternoon (-1C there at noon!) according to Trademe poster, and Haast Pass highway is closed. Tekapo webcam show light covering down to the lake.
Chch is on a comparably balmy 7C.

[Kimkliff]

Just checked Transit NZ website. Haast Pass and Lindis Pass now closed due to snow. Chains are essential on SH 6 Queenstown to Cromwell, and Cromwell to Wanaka.

[Storm Struck]

It sure feels alot colder than 6C outside overcast with some lower level starting to come over, just had a brief few light spots from it but certainly looks like the rain clouds are closing in.
If its snowing in Wanaka then the snow is falling to lower than the predicted 4-500m by MS because even Queenstown is about 350m as is Wanaka around that level.
But certainly this weekend could be quite a significant event for inland areas and the high country, heavy snow to about 300m and lighter falls down to 200m maybe 100m in pockets at times at this stage.
But then there are so many other factors to include as to how high tempertures will be in certain places etc.

[mattyj46]

I see MS have dropped their road snowfall warnings for the Alphine SI Roads tonight. I seen also at around 2pm they changed Queenstown's forecast to "Some rain, and brief snow tonight. Northeasterly."

[tich]

Considering how cold it has been over the South Island up to now, any moisture bearing system can bring snow to inland areas of the South Island, not just a southerly.

[Storm Struck]

Heavy snow through most central areas now, Cromwell,Wanaka, Twizel,Tekapo and i suspect that Arrowtown and Queenstown wont be far off from it.
Even keep watch for this system over Canterbury provided there's not too much warming .

[mattyj46]

I see MS have dropped their road snowfall warnings for the Alphine SI Roads tonight. I seen also at around 2pm they changed Queenstown's forecast to "Some rain, and brief snow tonight. Northeasterly."

Sratch that about the road snowfall warnings, they're back up!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Moisture levels are down again unfortunately and thickness values at 530. However, i think the models are not picking up the full potential of this system so lets wait and see.

I see Niwa is also saying Coastal Canterbury and Otago are in the firing line for a very wet 3 months and much colder as well with SE Systems dominating.

[Storm Struck]

Geez temperatures taking a dive inland 2.1C in Methven 3C in Oxford hmm