Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

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Tornado Tim
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Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Seems that we have some CAPEable air in a row ranging to the West of the SI and crossing the NI around North Waikato all the way to Northland.
During that time, thunderstorms are predicted to form according to the metservice.
GFS is predicting that the Unstable air will move in a NE direction, and much of the NI is predicted to be receiving a flowing Easterly wind as the High down in the SI moves up a bit more.
Hamilton isnt looking so good atm and i think this may be a Auckland/Northland event, unless the GFS decides to flip flop.
Days of Interest:
2nd of July (according to the metservice but the GFS has backed off)
4th of July (possible night time event)
5th and or 6th based on the GFS.
Anyway take what you want from this....
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Last edited by Tornado Tim on Wed 01/07/2009 17:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July

Unread post by Michael »

Its July now. :lol:
Tornado Tim wrote: 2nd of June (according to the metservice but the GFS has backed off)
4th of June (possible night time event)
5th and or 6th based on the GFS.
Anyway take what you want from this....
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Re: Unstable period, Early July

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Woops, thanks for pointing that out.... Fixed!
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Re: Unstable period, Early July

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, several days of unstable weather coming up for the north, always hit and miss who gets the thunder, hopefully Auckland skies can light up again.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July

Unread post by NZstorm »

Not too sure about the front tomorrow evening, the gfs has kept the instability over northern NZ Thursday evening very marginal thus far.

Friday and Saturday should be more unstable with good thunderstorm prospects for the north. But as spwill says it is hit and miss.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Vertigo »

fingers crossed here.. if it works out, should be a good show
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looking better overnight :)
Image
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Vertigo »

looking very nice now, and i see Metservice warning for severe thunderstorms up top. lucky you, DTNZ :) still, thunderstorms should make their way to auckland!
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The active front looks quite severe looking at the google lightning overlay!!!!
The AM radio is cracking and popping quite a bit too.
Update: Cirrus cloud is thickening to the north, signifying the oncoming approach of the front.
It may hit before night time it seems.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by mattyj46 »

Nice little blotch of red appearing on the Auckland radar out to sea.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Vertigo wrote:looking very nice now, and i see Metservice warning for severe thunderstorms up top. lucky you, DTNZ :) still, thunderstorms should make their way to auckland!
Hi Vertigo,

It's been crazy here looking up there (@ the sky -clouds (that is) within an hour and a half we have had sunny blue skies, sun halo... then rolling and forming quickly were layers of chunky grey clouds - 10 mins ago we had light shower's - unbelieveable - looking very nice out towards west and north presently.

Did check MetService morning forecast - awesome - thunderstorms - possible weak tornado activity - great camera - sound recording gear all setup - ready to go :)
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Vertigo »

hmmm... worried that itll stay put north of new zealand, which it looks like itll do in its current track. reckon land interaction will make them fire off nearer to us?
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Man that rain band to the West of the North Island has grown and intensified quickly. Now the 5pm radar is out of order for Auckland, signs of something brewing up there maybe affecting the satellite? Someone up north will get something special me thinks!
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Took these images looking east about 15-20 mins ago - these clouds came in quickly from the west (tasman side )and moved out over towards the east (pacific side), and the two lower image's are the partial sun halo and chunky grey clouds which I believe are nimbus possibly (DT presses her thumbs to her temple applying a firm light pressure ) erm.. your'll have to forgive me for a moment... the cloud name will come to me... got a headache at moment, take care.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Peter »

As usual MetService radar for Auckland at 5pm is missing just as some severe weather threatens! #-o
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by mattyj46 »

DT-NZ wrote:Took these images looking east about 15-20 mins ago - these clouds came in quickly from the west (tasman side )and moved out over towards the east (pacific side), and the two lower image's are the partial sun halo and chunky grey clouds which I believe are nimbus possibly (DT presses her thumbs to her temple applying a firm light pressure ) erm.. your'll have to forgive me for a moment... the cloud name will come to me... got a headache at moment, take care.
Nice photos, would be much appreciated if you could get some more when the action heats up if you can _b
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by spwill »

I flew from Sydney to Auckland this afternoon, I was surprised to be able to see Lightning with the Cb clouds over the Central Tasman, looked very unstable out there. The Front near our west coast looked less active.
Photo, looking down on a Cb from 37000ft, central Tasman.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Vertigo »

unless the front undergoes significant intensification when it interacts with land, i dont see lightning on the card for northland or auckland tonight. the majority of the electrical activity is well northwest of northland, and heading up up and away.

perhaps more to come in the next few days - a shame tho.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by NZstorm »

perhaps more to come in the next few days - a shame tho.
There seems to be a good thunderstorm chance for Auckland on Saturday night and again overnight Sunday as low pressure systems come through.

As for tonights system, the cold front comes in during the early hours. The rain on the radar will be warm frontal effect. The GFS has always been a bit iffy with the instability over the NI on tonights system.
Photo, looking down on a Cb from 37000ft, central Tasman.
Interesting photo spwill.
Last edited by NZstorm on Thu 02/07/2009 18:51, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Vertigo wrote:unless the front undergoes significant intensification when it interacts with land, i dont see lightning on the card for northland or auckland tonight. the majority of the electrical activity is well northwest of northland, and heading up up and away.

perhaps more to come in the next few days - a shame tho.
From here we have a good 180 degree view of the horizon looking out over towards the west, north and east - and have had no visual on any flashes out there - shame!!!! it's raining now... steady... nevermind...

Btw... great pic spwill.. nice one _b
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by DT-NZ »

mattyj46 wrote: Nice photos, would be much appreciated if you could get some more when the action heats up if you can _b
hi mattyj46 :wave:

thank you, look's like it's moving up and away furthur north from here - nevermind - hopefully another time... take care.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Dale »

Likewise down here.. not even the faintest sight of a flash and have an uninhibited view along the hunuas, skytower, out west and down past tuakau out to bombay.. nada, zip, nothing as yet.

Top shot spwill.. if i had to pic any favourite type of weather photo it is ones like that, from way up high where you dont get the sort of view from the ground.. great structure shots!
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Peter »

As I read the MetService forecast they seem to think that this will intensify as it approaches the North Island
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by Vertigo »

rainband moving over auckland now. it sure did have potential, but just went the wrong way.
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Re: Unstable period, Early July (North Island)

Unread post by spwill »

I see some isolated thundery Cbs have developed on the cold Front.
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