Deep Subtropical low to pass through NI, 10/7-13/7

[DT-NZ]

pics taken between 8.30 - 9.00 am around DB area - very few people out on the beach's (lol) not many vehicles travelling around on the the road's when we went out. take care

[Tornado Tim]

Its looks quite pathetic on the rain radar atm, its says we are getting light rain but not even 1 drop to prove it.

[Dale]

Its been on the lightish side since about 8am here, the wind got up for a while but has now tapered off & heavier precip is starting. Were hunkered down, just spent the last hour chopping timber & rightly so, its just barely 12ºc inside here so ive kicked the fire in the guts & not before too long. Baro hasnt swung either way as yet but its being monitored closely.

Love the shot on the Heralds website

[spwill]

Sat pic shows heavy showery rain just north of Northland.

Light rain here and rather cold 10C

[David]

Can't even call the wind gusty and the rain is nothing spectacular yet....

[Dale]

Be patient... good things come to those whom wait.

[Nev]

Hi Catatonic and welcome - great to get some figures from Warkworth.

Great shots DT

How's the wind up there folks? Ain't too bad here yet, but I see Mean-winds at 12pm were 74 km/h at Cape Karikari (85 km/h at 9am), 65 km/h at Cape Reinga, 80 km/h at Tutukaka Harbour and 87 km/h in the outer-Gulf. E'erlys howling through the Colville Channel at 87 km/h, with Tiritiri receiving 72 km/h on the other side of the Gulf. A little quieter on the Waitemata Harbour at about 44 km/h.

Steady light 5mm here since about 8am.

Just preparing for the inevitable power-cuts. Might get some Akld ferries cancelled tonight.

(Btw, NIWA says Warkworth broke it's 43 year June T-min record with -1.3°C on the 5th. )

[Vertigo]

moderate rain and a bit gusty in auckland at the moment. the good stuff is still to come!

[Catatonic]

Hi Nev, DT, thanks for the welcome

Starting to get a bit gusty now, still not much though I expect it will get worse tonight, we usually get a power cut, last years big storm we were out for 5 days! The generators full though and a bucket on standby for the watertank.

We're getting sustained winds of about 35kmph now, gusting more but my weather station doesn't register gusts, not much rain to speak of.

wouldn't fancy being on the ferry tonight!

[Manukau heads obs]

I see the marine forecast for the auckland harbours has eased the forecasted windspeed a little bit and delayed on the onset a bit
the main low center has slowed down its se movement now, but a new low center is developing to the north of north cape on an increasingly active front there, and its that one which will increase and spread the wind field further south

[David]

The east breeze is easing off here. Very odd.

[Manukau heads obs]

the latest GFS run looks worse again...big squeeze is going to occur 2 nite...at the moment the wind is using the hauraki gulf as a pressure release, but eventualy that will not be enough and places further south will suddenly get the strong winds

[Dale]

Which we are at present, starting to howl through the usual places with bits and pieces of tin crashing around.. this is only a warm up. Knew I should have bought my stunt kites over from Aussie.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looks like the rain band is starting to form a connection now and i would expect in the next couple of hours for persistent heavy rain to be falling from Auckland northwards.

[rawdon]

meanwhile the Hutt Valley .. has more cloud and light southeasterlies... When will the sunshine ever return.
at 15:25hrs Saturday 11th July 1018, falling slightly, 9c and dull.. First thing this am thick fog and a slight frost.
Steve
Upper Hutt

[Tornado Tim]

The rain radar is telling fibs, there is no rain by hamilton, it says it is light but there is no rain at all.
bar Horsham Downs which is North of Hamilton which is getting rain.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Maybe its so light that the rain isnt reaching the ground but the radar beam is picking up precipitation falling up at the higher levels? I can understand your frustration though!

[Nev]

Mean-winds at 3pm about 95 km/h at Tutukaka, the Colville Channel, the outer-Gulf and 89 km/h at Cape Karikari - 52 km/h on the Waitemata. Only about 20 km/h at Akld and Whenuapai Aero.

[rawdon]

Latest MetService models weaken the low as it passes east of the upper North Island tomorrow.. unlike the low of 26th July last year.. You may recall..
Steve Upper Hutt
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[Michael]

Nothing unusual windwise here, a light E now been hardly any wind all day,our anticyclonic SWer is has far higher speeds than this.

[Tornado Tim]

The system looks quite good on sat map, still quite some distance away it seems.

[David]

Wind has dropped way back down to a light breeze here. Highest gust hasn't even topped 40kph here so far today.

[RWood]

meanwhile the Hutt Valley .. has more cloud and light southeasterlies... When will the sunshine ever return.
at 15:25hrs Saturday 11th July 1018, falling slightly, 9c and dull.. First thing this am thick fog and a slight frost.
Steve
Upper Hutt

Sunny if hazy morning in the city. Cloudy afternoon. 15-day total 25 June - 9 July is 20.9 hrs, low but not a record-breaker. 21-day low record (1954-present ) is 27.9 hours during June 1978. That won't go either.

[rawdon]

latest 00z 11th July UK hi res models show its all on track to pass to the upper north then pass on into the Pacific and deepen slightly.

Steve
Upper Hutt

[Dale]

Well this wind here right now is just like my 18 month old son cutting his molars.. Angry & something to keep you up all night.
Hasnt really been any sort of disappointment, not for myself anyway, its been playing out so far the way ive modelled it.. but those sat pix sure look sexy.

Huge gust just now, i could spend 5 minutes to remove the loose guttering from the cow shed and the loose sheet of tin from the bobby calf pen but they are my windspeed indicators.. when they start banging and crashing, its bloody windy!