Deep Subtropical low to pass through NI, 10/7-13/7

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NZstorm
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Deep Subtropical low to pass through NI, 10/7-13/7

Unread post by NZstorm »

This system is possibly worth a mention as it is looking like it may direct gale force winds onto Northland as it passes. Certainly the anemometer at Cape Reinga is in for a blow and Norfolk Island will get a hammering as well.

The SE flow should give Auckland fine weather although thick high cloud on Saturday.

Prognosis chart for 6am Sunday

Mod edit: title change.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by jamie »

I have to fly over that thing on my way to Tonga on very early monday morning. Could be in for a bumpy ride.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

I checked in last night with this system and overnight the runs have put it more on track to hit the upper north island. At this stage nothing significant looks too likely but the fact it is changing for the better ( in terms of rain and wind) then this trend can allow for greater significance to develop. Meanwhile in the south the a cold southerly system looks like it will linger about southern and eatern coasts and weather watch have already mentioned this and the possibility of another late next week. It shows up on the maps but the usual clipping the coast looks the way it is heading. All the southerly systems that have had snow to near sea level have only really clipped eastern regions. GFS certainly is not in agreeance anymore as it shows partcially dry contions with thickness values of 532. However, so many runs have started of so good and gone crap, maybe this one will do the vice versa? Guess it is a wait and see scenario.


[Edited by Nev: Moved part of this post to the 'General July Weather' thread]
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by spwill »

A cold (wind chill) damp weekend coming up for Auckland.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by NZstorm »

The 00Z gfs certainly looks more interesting with a deeper low coming closer to Northland. And rain spreads as far south as central North Island at the weekend. Next few runs on this will be interesting.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

dang, we want to go to port waikato, motor camp, over the weekend, for a family get away in the school holidays...but looks like its going to be cold wet and windy !
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

What perfect timing eh Brian ;-) , GFS seems to pulling it more north atm, but that may change with the 9 PM run.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

latest GFS has saturday the worst day, and severe gales and heavy rain for the upper NI
at this stage!
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Razor »

Looks to me like this thread need a new title- looks to be a direct hit on the upper north island now.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

My forecast is pointing out Saturday Night as getting a nice dumping, around 30mm and Tuesday Night is another night to look at.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, heavy rain on Saturday, especially upper Northland. CAPE forecast points to the possibility of thunderstorms over the far north Saturday evening as high dewpont air moves through.

GFS CAPE/surface winds 9pm Saturday
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by David »

GFS seems to be dragging the rain and gales further south with each run. Metservice's current severe weather watch only includes Northland - doesn't match up with latest runs of GFS. It's less than 48 hours to the event, and I can't see GFS significantly backing off....
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Kimkliff »

Looks like we might see some weather action on holiday next week (since most of the snowfalls we've had have been at night). Flying into Auck early Sun morn with the family and taking the kids up through Northland incl the Cape Mon-Wed. It will certainly be fun watching an incoming system without the liklihood of snow!! A bit different to what I am normally watching :cool:
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Myself »

David wrote:GFS seems to be dragging the rain and gales further south with each run. Metservice's current severe weather watch only includes Northland - doesn't match up with latest runs of GFS. It's less than 48 hours to the event, and I can't see GFS significantly backing off....
Problem is the GFS is still playing "catch-up". A few days ago, the most the GFS had was a broad trough just south of New Caledonia, whereas the other main two were trying to spin up something more threatening. The UK model got onto it earliest, the ECMWF has been trying to push it out further east than the UK. The GFS has just realised that deep northern lows are in fashion and in turn has come out with its cheap K-Mart intepretation.
I just can't trust the model with this event.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by spwill »

A few days ago, the most the GFS had was a broad trough just south of New Caledonia, whereas the other main two were trying to spin up something more threatening.
ECMWF started to bring the Low movement close to Northland on it's Monday runs while GFS followed on Tuesday.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

wow, latest GFS has it tracking even closer, with ENE gales instead of easterly gales for saturday morning now, then easterly gales on sunday?
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by David »

Here is a GFS windspeed forecast for Saturday 6pm NZ time.
Certainly suggests a big blow for the northern half of the NI.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by NZstorm »

UKmet map for midnight Saturday. 850mb temps here showing the contrast in temperatures. NZ will be the battle ground between two different airmasses.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by Razor »

Is there a chance for the northern moist air to 'feed' the cold stuff down our way?
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by spwill »

Is there a chance for the northern moist air to 'feed' the cold stuff down our way?
The Low moves away east, next week may have snow for the SI. ;)
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by gllitz »

spwill wrote:
Is there a chance for the northern moist air to 'feed' the cold stuff down our way?
The Low moves away east, next week may have snow for the SI. ;)
Indeed...ECMWF showing a bit of a cold blast mid-late next week, but still early stages...GFS hasn't even picked it up yet...we'll see!
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by NZstorm »

The slopes of Mt Ruapheu should get a decent snow fall of this weekends system as should the eastern NI ranges.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:The slopes of Mt Ruapheu should get a decent snow fall of this weekends system as should the eastern NI ranges.
The ski fields would miss out on it though wouldn't they?.. especially Turoa
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by NZstorm »

Jamie wrote
The ski fields would miss out on it though wouldn't they?.. especially Turoa
Airmass looks like it will be cold enough and the precip should spread across the region.
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Re: Subtropical low to pass north of NZ this weekend

Unread post by jamie »

yep ski fields are at the level and above. Im thinking more on the lines of the sheltering effect the mountain will have on the fields though. Coming from the E-SE the fields would miss a lot of the precipitation? Turoa being on the SW and Whakapapa being on the NW. The eastern side should get a really good dump.
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