Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I see the coming SW now to the Sw.
Some Cu development and some 'fists' :D

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
gllitz
Posts: 1335
Joined: Wed 04/01/2006 11:45
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by gllitz »

Not so sure it's gonna get up to us, though, John... :-( More than likely to be pushed out to sea, by the looks of radar and sat loops...NI a different story, though!
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Razor »

SW just rolled into town, a few good gusts but hardly a cloud in the sky. Its a dry one, be back to NW by morning
Christchurch Rocks
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Razor »

I am staggered how fast Hagley Park has dried out to a bone dry surface in the past weeks. I regularly run round it and its looking more like December in terms of soil conditions than August. Not a good sign at all....
Christchurch Rocks
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

The actual SW came through here at 1753hrs from a previous westerly. Some spectacular cloud forms with the change. :smile: but it is getting dark now.

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Some fair biffo in the S-SW change probly the best we have had in awhile, reminds me of the typical spring like southerly busters we used to get just without the thunderstorms.
Showers are just jogging along around mid-south canterbury at the moment should be here in a few hours with this very strong SWer.
Noticed some CU along the wind change line too which looked quite cool as usual.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Here is a photo I took today.

EDIT: ...and another one

JohnGaul
NZThS
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Tim S
Posts: 379
Joined: Tue 26/09/2006 16:49
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Tim S »

I've been following this topic quite closely for the last few weeks as I'll be over there in a couple of weeks and was looking forward to some nice cold outbreaks! From my observations it seems to me that the Long Wave Trough has been a lot weaker over there in the past 3 weeks or so than it normally is with the peaks a lot less stronger but also the troughs not as deep. This can be seen in the sea level synoptics as over that period there has been an almost constant stream of moderate high pressure systems coming streaming across Australia on the 30 degree latitude line (they are well behaved highs :) ) resulting in the almost constant northwesterly to southwesterley flow you've been getting at your latitudes.

The good news is that this looks like it could end in a week or two with a relatively strong peak in the LWT forecast near us here in the SW of WA from the middle of next week, which will hopefully mean a week or so after that you guys should get that and will see a more 'normal' sort of winter. Of course all this could just be wishful thinking, but it would be good to see NZ with a proper winter. :lol:
mikestormchaser
Posts: 2711
Joined: Sat 03/06/2006 20:11
Location: Rolleston, Canterbury
Has thanked: 355 times
Been thanked: 607 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

I noticed some typical looking CU towards south aswel, typical looking SW change coming.
Nice and warm again today with that NW flow and some nice cloud formations over the alps, had some decent speradical drops this evening to and i went outside and with the brightness of the moon i could see the clouds.
It did look quite unstable for a time.
Mike
Stormchasers.co.nz
User avatar
Willoughby
Site Admin
Posts: 4433
Joined: Sat 14/06/2003 16:18
Location: Darwin, Australia: Storm city
Has thanked: 264 times
Been thanked: 288 times
Contact:

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Willoughby »

Tim, looks like the LWT is going to start peaking southwest of the African continent and build a large upper high or very weak upper level winds across two thirds of the Indian... so from that you could say a strong cold pool could hit WA later and then force something up in the Tasman for NZ within the day. Only speculating! :B
will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
Define normal!!
tich
Posts: 3467
Joined: Sat 15/03/2003 18:32
Location: Christchurch (St Albans)/Akaroa
Has thanked: 21 times
Been thanked: 91 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by tich »

Had a brief shower earlier this evening in central Chch - even sounded like hail very briefly. Looks like clearing now.
User avatar
CHCH Weather Chaser
Posts: 3460
Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Had 3-4 brief light showers tonight and not enough to allow a reading on the rain gauge. So technically another day without rainfall. No rain in the forecast for the next 6 days either!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas

2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Razor »

I called it 2 weeks ago. Its spring. Winter is looooooong gone from Canterbury, I tell ya!
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Had some very light drizzly stuff earlier but apart from that, not overly too much.
Showers forecast for tomorrow night Mark going by the MS, but then its possibly going to be the same thing as tonight.
I think winter will return in the last few weeks of August for awhile and maybe even into September, but i could be wrong.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Michael »

A so called normal one is plenty of southwesterlies which have been absent a lot the last couple of winters,I dont mind that.
will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
Define normal!!
Tim S
Posts: 379
Joined: Tue 26/09/2006 16:49
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Tim S »

Foggy wrote:Tim, looks like the LWT is going to start peaking southwest of the African continent and build a large upper high or very weak upper level winds across two thirds of the Indian... so from that you could say a strong cold pool could hit WA later and then force something up in the Tasman for NZ within the day. Only speculating! :B
will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
Define normal!!
By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' :P ) weather we get. ;-)

Speaking of which Darwin must be getting plenty of normal weather at the moment. :)
User avatar
gllitz
Posts: 1335
Joined: Wed 04/01/2006 11:45
Location: Perth, Western Australia
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by gllitz »

Razor wrote:I called it 2 weeks ago. Its spring. Winter is looooooong gone from Canterbury, I tell ya!
You sure did, Razor =D> ...It is actually becoming quite concerning with the lack of precip recently, esp. here in Canty... I don't think I have EVER had to water my lawn mid-winter (not that you should, but I think my grass is starting to grow and grass needs lots of water and fertiliser once it gets going in the Spring...at least, that's my understanding, anyway...)

NONE of the models have any kind of precip for Canty on the cards anytime soon (within next 10-14 days)...yikes! 8-o :-(
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Another SW change through this evening with some unstable skies again, scatterd towering CU lit up by the moon.
Also some sporadic rain drops too some the size of the new 50 cent coins, so certainly some instability about.
Little bit of rain next week Glitnz but again possibly the simular set up to this week just gone.
It will be concerning if the westerly pattern keeps up, but i wouldnt think its a problem just yet as we did have alot of rain from April-mid July.
So even if some top soils are drying out there will be enough water further down to last atleast 2 months.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Chris Raine
Posts: 952
Joined: Thu 17/04/2003 11:54
Location: Thornbury
Has thanked: 11 times
Been thanked: 69 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Chris Raine »

We have had no measurable rain for 14 days . Today scattered Cb's but any precipitation was isolated with lots of virga , RH got down to 32% before the southerly came in at 4pm. Quite concerning as no decent rain forecast in coming weeks , soils drying out and fire indices climbing
User avatar
CHCH Weather Chaser
Posts: 3460
Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

A very strong high looks as if it will dominate the whole of New Zealand for a good 5 or 6 days with the chance of a few showers about southern westland.fiordland and the far north only. Lows both sides of the high look nasty but the High is so intense at around 1038-1042hpa for most of the time period. Yes no rain in forecast for another 10 days atm, your right glitz. Just to get an idea. The last 23 days we have only had 5.8mm with 5.4mm of that falling on one day. In the last 28 days we have had just 8.6mm. We have now had 12 days without rainfall and a mean average high for August of 15.8 degrees so far! 5.2 degrees above the average. The last day of July saw a temp of 19.3 degrees so with this the average temp for the last 6 days is now 16.7 degrees. Very warm for midwinter.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas

2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
User avatar
Vertigo
Posts: 1184
Joined: Sun 09/12/2007 23:50
Location: Henderson, Auckland
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 12 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Vertigo »

Tim S wrote: By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' :P ) weather we get. ;-)
is normal the opposite of dazzling? :B
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by spwill »

In the last 28 days we have had just 8.6mm.
-4C at Christchurch Airport this morning, no doubt the dry ground conditions will have helped the overnight chilling.

Looks like more frosty weather next week with the slow moving High depending on where cloud cover is located.
Tim S
Posts: 379
Joined: Tue 26/09/2006 16:49
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by Tim S »

Vertigo wrote:
Tim S wrote: By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' :P ) weather we get. ;-)
is normal the opposite of dazzling? :B
quite possibly, or exciting. :) dazzling sounds too much like our Summers, they are far too dazzling in my opinion.

So what would be the prevailling wind conditions for most of NZ during the winter months, is it more SW to SE? I know you'd get a lot of local variations especially on or close to the Southern Alps though. I would look up the wind roses on the web for certain localities but finding meteorological info for NZ is about as easy as spotting a cloud during summer in Perth. ;)
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by RWood »

You can get them from Climate Explorer, but there's a small cost unfortunately.

Choose "regional" or climate stations" and look at the product list.

https://secure.niwa.co.nz/climate-explorer/home.do
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!

Unread post by spwill »

So what would be the prevailling wind conditions for most of NZ during the winter months,
A similar weather pattern to southern parts of Australia but with the odd sub tropical low moving down from the North tasman.

Looks like we will be stuck in a North to East flow for perhaps a couple of weeks with High preasure persisting just east of NZ
Locked