NZ Weather Forum

Wherever I go around the area (Darfield/Oxford/Springfield) the locals are talking about a big snow coming. Something about the crescent moon, the early nor'westers and spring-like conditions... is this just the usual gossip or is there something in it?

It could happen after this early NW/Westerly event is over and weather patterns change.
It has happened before.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Nothing in the models (ECMWF/GFS/etc) would seem to suggest anything of any significance over the next week or so...but John is right, it has happened before...many people have told me it was like this before the "big snow of '92" but without any write-ups (that I am aware of, will check M/S site in archives, etc) I couldn't say for sure.

Can't see it. El Nino is already putting pay to that thought given the persistent NW conditions. Just imagine if this spell was high summer!

Heavy snow is forecast for tomorrow - about the main divide and Alpine passes. And probably down to quite a low level in the southwest today, with Milford Sound, Manapouri, and Haast only on about 3C at 6pm, with recent precipitation in all 3 places.

Warm NW in mid winter seem to give the indication that something does come after such a weather pattern.
It has happened in quite a number of years really to be honest, and if there was a cold blast happening tomorrow witch unfortunately there inst, i think we would be in for something for sure

MoorfNZ wrote:Wherever I go around the area (Darfield/Oxford/Springfield) the locals are talking about a big snow coming. Something about the crescent moon, the early nor'westers and spring-like conditions... is this just the usual gossip or is there something in it?

a friend of mine used to up at sheffield and the farmers and the locals up there were always on the money when a snow event was coming so i think they could well be onto something be an interesting couple of weeks ahead to see if they are right

well the latest charts suggest almost permanent mild NW for Canternury for the next couple of weeks. I really doubt we are going to see any major events, this has the hallmarks of an early el nino driven spring and is terrible news for farmers, expect major moisture deficits to start early- here in ChCh it has already dried out!

I've been chainsawing a lot of firewood, today, to keep us going for the rest of winter but it looks as thought my wood pile will be there for next winter.

JohnGaul
NZThS

I agree something has to be on the cards after all this milder weather, it is nice weather but would be nice to get a dumping of snow before the end of this winter.

Seems that this maybe based on superstition....my wood pile seems to be lasting well this year and ill have some banked for 2010 as well.

Janos wrote:Seems that this maybe based on superstition....my wood pile seems to be lasting well this year and ill have some banked for 2010 as well.

Not a bad power bill either Janos. Amazing what you find out in the paper

I thought traditionally we got good dumps later in August? Surely it ain't all over yet.

I'm happy to wait and see what happens.

I was in the Cables valley last weekend ...west of Lake Wakitipu and it was certainly late spring conditions in there.
The valley was saturated with melt water and there were dozens of visible avalanche paths.
Even the bloody sand flys thought it was time to wake up.

Down here in Invercargill, I think we've had overall more in and around the city than we've had for a year or three, but no big dump like we tend to get once a year (and usually the only snow we get in the city). While I don't see anything on the radar, wouldn't surprise me at all if it happened (don't really want my Red Cross emergency response team activated though...).

Hmmm...don't think winter is quite over yet...still a ways out, but both ECMWF and GFS are showing some interesting things happening toward the end of AUG/early SEP...we'll see....

Well there was a cresenty looking moon last night and the day has been a stunner.
A big dump for August is looking very unlikely, as i wrote earlier it sounded very much like
a old wives tale.

Tahii wrote:Down here in Invercargill, I think we've had overall more in and around the city than we've had for a year or three, but no big dump like we tend to get once a year (and usually the only snow we get in the city). While I don't see anything on the radar, wouldn't surprise me at all if it happened (don't really want my Red Cross emergency response team activated though...).

Were you in Invercargill in 2003? We had a big dump then down to sealevel, got sent home from school at lunchtime it was getting that bad, wish we had another dump like that, unfortunantly I think it was at least a one in ten year event.

gllitz wrote:Hmmm...don't think winter is quite over yet...still a ways out, but both ECMWF and GFS are showing some interesting things happening toward the end of AUG/early SEP...we'll see....

Well Glitz a little bit of snow on the Dunedin hills this morning so your interpretations were bang on.

Hi all... my first post here. I live in Brisbane but only yesterday got back from a trip around the South Island touring the Christchurch - Hanmer - Kaikoura - Lake Tekapo - Waimate - Akaroa areas for about two weeks. Looking at the wx for the few weeks' previous, I was rather annoyed with the continuous NW'ers which was killing the snow, but on September 1 the weather had turned, just in time for our time at Lake Tekapo!

The following were taken early on September 2nd, mostly on the northern parts of the lake, on the other side of Mt John: (click for larger image)



Looking at the Tekapo webcam now, you'd never no it was so good just 4 days ago! The rest of the day's pics with descriptions are here.

interesting lighting in the photos
look good