Extended dry and sunny spell July- August-?

[Razor]

I'm becoming more convinced we are at the beginning of a drought for Canterbury and likely other eastern seaboards. About 5mm of rain in the past month for ChCh and there is no end in sight to the perfect sunny days on the lasted forecasts.

Couple the last month with the apparent emerging El Nino and it's not hard to read the tea leaves- we could be standing on the door of serious moisture deficits heading into spring. While May and June had good rainfall, I can confirm the soils appear extremely dry for August in my neck of the woods.

[Andy]

Thats because you have sandy soil over where you live and it's always needing water! other places still have lots of water available for plant growth. But come Nov, Dec a drought might be on the cards.

[melja]

I would think we have no soil moisture deficit at all, its only the top few cm of open soil that is dry and it will only take 10mm or so of rain and it will be all back to normal.
The dry at the moment will be great for the farmers as this will be warming up the soil much more than it normally would and in turn be giving better grass growth so should be a good spring for them.

[Razor]

We still need rain in the spring- I have farming contacts who are loving the lack of cold snaps, but have a weathered eye on what might be happening in a couple of months

[spwill]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 2009080712!!/
Yes it is a long way out.

[Chris Raine]

I have had no measurable rain for 17 days in Oamaru and there is none forecast for the next 10 days . The ground is drying out and fire danger is slowly increasing . We have fire restrictions in place i.e you need a permit to burn

[gllitz]

So the question I have, then, is when was it like this the last time? RWood, perhaps you would know? And then what happened afterward? This lack of precip is getting worrisome...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Sure is a fresh northeast out there today and the overnight frost that was predicted tonight was overidden by the strong Northeasterly overnight that didnt die away. Some increasing high cloud this afternoon and there is actually two little bands of shower/rain just out to sea of us. One looks like delivering a few showers to BP and the other in North Canterbury shows heavy shower around the coastline (just out to sea). That surprises me considering the 1040 high. SHouldnt even be hardly any cloud around The northeasterly flow should prevail for a good 4-5 days, hopefully a lot lighter from now on though! I would have thought the winds would be mainly light with the situation of the high. Perhaps frosty mornings following by an afternoon sea breeze but the breeze has been stiff all day.

Over and Out
Mark

[RWood]

W ould have to check, but in the winters of 1964, 1967 and 1969 much of the east of the South Island was getting very dry, though August gave some minor relief in 1967. There were plenty of "dry" episodes in the period 1969-mid-1973.

Then, from memory only, there was 1982 (haven't verified any info.)

[tich]

Some increasing high cloud this afternoon and there is actually two little bands of shower/rain just out to sea of us. One looks like delivering a few showers to BP and the other in North Canterbury shows heavy shower around the coastline (just out to sea). That surprises me considering the 1040 high. SHouldnt even be hardly any cloud around

No sign of any shower activity on BP - a fine day, with just some harmless high cloud.

[Richard]

Sure is a fresh northeast out there today and the overnight frost that was predicted tonight was overidden by the strong Northeasterly overnight that didnt die away. Some increasing high cloud this afternoon and there is actually two little bands of shower/rain just out to sea of us. One looks like delivering a few showers to BP and the other in North Canterbury shows heavy shower around the coastline (just out to sea). That surprises me considering the 1040 high. SHouldnt even be hardly any cloud around The northeasterly flow should prevail for a good 4-5 days, hopefully a lot lighter from now on though! I would have thought the winds would be mainly light with the situation of the high. Perhaps frosty mornings following by an afternoon sea breeze but the breeze has been stiff all day.

Over and Out
Mark

There's definitely no showers anywhere in North Canterbury,what gives you the idea that there's any precipitation within this area???

[Storm Struck]

It really depends because not everywhere will have the same drought affects, as we know if we go back to early winter when we had the SE flow there were a number of areas recieving shower activity while places like Christchurch were not.
I dont think we have too much to worry about as i believe an unsettled period is going to come in around late August, and continue on through to early October where there could be some rough low systems at times.
A warmer summer does look likly though i would think.

[Nev]

Apart from this winter being preceded by Chch's wettest May for 50 years, I would say 2005 is looking almost identical to this one. Rainfalls ranging between 31mm and 42mm followed for the next 6 months. 2003 also had similar June and July rainfalls, but totals for the following 7 months were far more volatile, ranging from over 85mm in Sep and Feb to just 1mm in Dec.

EDIT: Figures based on Chch Aero.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Sure is a fresh northeast out there today and the overnight frost that was predicted tonight was overidden by the strong Northeasterly overnight that didnt die away. Some increasing high cloud this afternoon and there is actually two little bands of shower/rain just out to sea of us. One looks like delivering a few showers to BP and the other in North Canterbury shows heavy shower around the coastline (just out to sea). That surprises me considering the 1040 high. SHouldnt even be hardly any cloud around The northeasterly flow should prevail for a good 4-5 days, hopefully a lot lighter from now on though! I would have thought the winds would be mainly light with the situation of the high. Perhaps frosty mornings following by an afternoon sea breeze but the breeze has been stiff all day.

Over and Out
Mark

There's definitely no showers anywhere in North Canterbury,what gives you the idea that there's any precipitation within this area???

I was going by the rain radar.

[Richard]

There are times when the radar shows a possible shower of rain when there is clearly no way it could be happening.I remember an occasion back last summer when the radar showed an area 20km by 50km sq in yellow off the Kaikoura coast,the weather on the day was a clear with a blue sky, i could see that particular area and there was no clouds that could have produced any rain shown.

Is there a way to look back at that particular radar image,i'd love to see it.

[RWood]

I have had no measurable rain for 17 days in Oamaru and there is none forecast for the next 10 days . The ground is drying out and fire danger is slowly increasing . We have fire restrictions in place i.e you need a permit to burn

Lowest rainfalls at Oamaru Aero June-Dec 1941-2008 (several years missing in period 1983-1999):

1958 152 mm
1982 175
1964 181
1965 203
1969 205

Lowest June-Dec rainfalls at Timaru Gardens 1897-2008 (1902, 1909 missing):

1988 146
1914 160
1915 164
1897 192
1923 196
1997 211

Lowest June-Dec rainfalls at Christchurch Gardens 1864-2008 (1883-1897, 1902, 1904 missing):

1959 152 (followed a very wet May)
1988 156
1958 187
1915 191
1903 196
1969 197
1878 214
2005 233

[gllitz]

Thanks for that, RWood!

[Nev]

Hi RWood. Had a quick look at those figures for Chch Gardens and thought it might be worth noting that the average rainfall for the following Jan to Mar periods were mostly (apart from 1988 and 1878) above the 1971-2000 average.


Re last nights (and this morns) rain-radar imagery, looks like relatively stationary false coastal echos or 'sea clutter'.

[Storm Struck]

There are times when the radar shows a possible shower of rain when there is clearly no way it could be happening.I remember an occasion back last summer when the radar showed an area 20km by 50km sq in yellow off the Kaikoura coast,the weather on the day was a clear with a blue sky, i could see that particular area and there was no clouds that could have produced any rain shown.

Is there a way to look back at that particular radar image,i'd love to see it.

Richard I wonder if this could be either, Fog or mist out to sea even drizzle as sometimes the radars might pick this up.
Considering it could be a high pressure system with sunny weather on the day, we all know how the fog and anticyclonic crud behaves around Canterbury.
Other thing could be rain in the upper level high cloud if there was scrappy high cloud that day?.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I find that sometimes the weather radars need to be 'cleaned' as the Wellington radar quite often had a yellow circle around it on clear, fine sunny days.
Weather Watcher, what is your comment on this?
JohnGaul
NZThS

[Michael]

Its radar bounce around the hills (in Wellington) or rain that evaporates before reaching the ground?

[TonyT]

radar is probably seeing Inversion layers after morning frosts here

[RWood]

I've seen that Wellington radar "halo" many times, in a variety of weather types.

[MoorfNZ]

Looks like a brief spell of rain this week - after that back to warm, spring weather.

[Tornado Tim]

My Wxsim forecast is picking up on Wednesday Night to bring some rain here and then Friday and Friday night to bring some more, next forecast will upload around 10.23 PM.
This is a forecast so I am expecting it to change, but just outlining something that could happen.
http://wx-matangi.dyndns.org/Matangi_We ... ecast.html