NZ Weather Forum

Hi
Sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific are not all that much above normal now
and the SOI has been running above 0 for the last 3 weeks....
so, so much for a developing El Nino?

In 1982 didnt it go positive sharply in 1 or 2 days late September?

BOM is a little cautious, but the NOAA/NCEP outlook still expects El Nino conditions through the northern winter.

Ugh, mis-quote in the paper today - just pointing out I didn't say it would be 29 degrees in October due to El-nino conditions!

14th October update

"Central Pacific Ocean temperatures warmed over the past fortnight in response to weakened Trade winds, and remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above these thresholds until at least early 2010."

Storms are forming off the west coast of the USA,another sign of it plus watch Santiago in Chile,large durnial ranges well into early summer means it too.

Things are not looking too good for NZ over the next week if you dislike southwesterlies.

A high in the Tasman Sea has some effect over the country this coming weekend, but the trend of recent times continues with it then retrogressing out slowly to the west and allowing fronts followed by southerlies/southwesterlies to have an impact over much of the country.
This is a typical El Nino pattern, the highs being too close to Australia and inflicting a disturbed SW flow over NZ. I was hoping it would not happen...but it is. The difference with the last two Novembers (la Nina) is striking, both on occasion had broad ridging across the country, setting up high cells both east and west of us. Now, anytime the ECMWF hints at this happening, on the next run it backtracks and puts us even more in with the junk.
The long-wave situation must look pretty miserable over the country right now....I bet we are sitting under a long-wave trough.


BOM says:

Ocean surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have warmed further and now exceed levels typical of an El Niño event by their greatest margin of the year. Similarly, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index has fallen to its lowest value since 2007. Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010.

NOAA are calling for moderate El Nino conditions until next spring(USA). I'm not too sure what this means for NZ's weather but NIWA are saying our weather is most likely to stay 'normal' this summer.

When was the last one?2002-03? If its like the 1982-83 one we will never hear the end of it as people seem to be more aware than they were in those days.Who can remember it?.The 1997-98 one was relatively tame though Xmas/New Year was windy and showery I remember but the summer and autumn was warm and dry leading into a winter a bit like last year.
Did 1963-64 have one?

My guess is for a dry cool November here in the North with sunshine a little below the average.

Nov 82 was warm,I remember it well,December was the pits with cold wet days and Jan/February were westerly than SW

yes, I hoped it would not happen too, as ruins the surf on the west coast, being too much on shore winds all the time

very Elnino like weather pattern at the moment

NZstorm wrote:...NIWA are saying our weather is most likely to stay 'normal' this summer.

Yep, if 'normal' is the average over the past 30 odd years, then El Nino is pretty much the norm.