General October Weather

[DT-NZ]

Was not sure nor certain if these images belonged in the bigga trough topic, so I have placed them here - well snapped these pics approx 15 mins ago - October 2009 morning skies in DB area.

First 2 pics looking west and the last pic looking NW.

[Michael]

Congestus isnt it??

[DT-NZ]

Congestus isnt it??

[Storm Struck]

Nice spider in the first photo there DTNZ, looks like its doing sit ups with arms behind its head .

[Tornado Tim]

It seems to me its a fibrous toped CB.
They are not like a normal CB as there is either a lack of moisture aka your Dp's are lowish and or your surface temperatures are too cold or the upper air is a little too warm.

[Michael]

Thers hail and thunder warnings in the BOP.

[DT-NZ]

Well, its true... seems like we have had almost 4 seasons in one day her... fabulous blue skies quickly turned stormy grey within only a short space of time - weather colours and light today have been visual shades of grey hues-n-blues - atmospherically gorgeous for optics - for rainbows etc - anyway, these pics were taken (in sequential order) between 14:00 - 14:30hrs today - sometimes it feels tropical if your in a sheltered area - then the wind comes along and you feel the cold in it.

[DT-NZ]

Nice spider in the first photo there DTNZ, looks like its doing sit ups with arms behind its head .

The tarn thing got in the way of my pic - take care Jase.

[Storm Struck]

So much for the forecasted rain dry as a bone so far, and sun is trying to appear with blue patches to the south.
I dont even think its gone SW winds are generally light but currently NE.
A few scraps of cloud developing here and there, didnt someone say today could be unstable for Canterbury.
See what the day brings.

[NZstorm]

A few scraps of cloud developing here and there, didnt someone say today could be unstable for Canterbury.
See what the day brings.

Certainly some cold upper air there with 500mb -27C modelled for this afternoon. Met Service think Nelson will be the spot. I guess there will be the heating there being a sheltered area from the south.

The front out to the west of the North Island is looking quite convective atm. But GFS suggests Auckland will not see much from this trough.

[Thunder]

I've been keeping an eye on it Jase, like NZstorm says cold upper air modeled to come over this afternoon.

Tottot's are up, problem is this cloud cover. Looking on the weatherzone sat pics there may be a clearance to the south moving north? If some sun come out then maybe? It does feel rather cool at the surface though with dewpoints a little low.

MM5 Auckland university model going for inland showers this afternoon so who knows, looking at it's cloud cover model I think it's expecting less to be around first off so if we factor the cloud in then that would dampen down it's enthusiasm for heat showers a bit. We'll see.

Cheers
Aaron

[Storm Struck]

Yeah the sun has been trying to come out here so it might break up eventually, i notice from the sattelites as you say Aaron that it is clearing in south Canterbury.
From that there is isolated showers on the midday radar.
NE has picked up abit more now too.
Edit. 2:30pm looks like some heavy showers around South Canterbury going by this radar.
http://www.eldersweather.co.nz/radar.js ... &lc=160061
The Met Service radars dont seem to be working.

[trickytiger]

Edit. 2:30pm looks like some heavy showers around South Canterbury going by this radar.

Correct, had a heavy shower pass through a couple mins ago now just a light shower and looks like it wants to clear up again.

[Storm Struck]

I didnt think it would take Paul long to update the thunder outlook, although i might have put it out for the rest of Canterbury as its starting to clear up out there now just had an interval of sunshine before.
Blue patches appearing around the sky, also had a few light spots of rain.
So a thunderstorm inland from Timaru at the moment with 10-20mm hail.
http://www.metservice.co.nz/public/weat ... storm.html

[Storm Struck]

Just had a brief heavy shower from a convergence line by the looks, a nice dark grey line moving northwards now.
Wind is now breezy westerly instead of NE.
Good to see thundery activity again today in Canterbury even if it wasnt on our doorsteps, more chances to watch for next week.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Too much cloud around today so not much chance of thunderstorm development, other than in south Canterbury. I did notice something around in Thunderstorm Corner but lack of sunshine and 'weak atmospherics' despite the NE from the internal low,didn't produce much ummmph. Too settled, although if the sun did shine to produce ground warming, there may of been something different.
Interesting wind flow imterfurents, though.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[NZstorm]

That cold air is over the North Island tomorrow but can't see anything more than isolated afternoon heat showers inland at this stage.

[Michael]

One can markedly see studying the maps the southerly ridges are getting weaker each passing week now and soon be absorbed by the general W-SW flows and northern ridges will influence more from now.

[RWood]

One can markedly see studying the maps the southerly ridges are getting weaker each passing week now and soon be absorbed by the general W-SW flows and northern ridges will influence more from now.

If so, it's more than overdue. I have analysed Octobers here which were "rainiest" - first restricting the selection to those that were also "wet", ie more than about 50% above average rainfall. Of these, I listed the top 5 for raindays totals "across the board" in 3 categories of rainfall total. Their overall totals were all 18 or 19 days (cutoff level 0.5mm). This month is up to 14 after 22 days and has a fair prospect of catching them. It has been very unpleasant, also being colder than average.

[Storm Struck]

Had some more persistant falls overnight and a few lighter showers this morning with the southerly, totaling up to 5mm in the gauge.
That puts the rainfall maximum for the month so far to exactly 50mm, possibly average rainfall for October although i think higher totals for some further north places which got the snow a few weeks ago.
As long as the rainfall totals keep coming i think it would be safe to say that the start of summer wont be a near drought starter.
Mid January to March could be though i would think.

[spwill]

The Niwa Oct-Dec outlook is for average rainfall for Canterbury and near average to below average temps so no early drought expected with this El Nino by Niwa. A wet spring is important to the NZ economy, dont need the cold though.

[Manukau heads obs]

heat low showers over the north waikato this afternoon

[Manukau heads obs]

picture
they are cold topped!
otherwise only shallow

[Richard]

Yer Jason up here in North Canterbury weve had 71mm for the month so far and more coming early next week.

[dan]

Apparently there was a big hail storm in Cambridge around midday