Complex Trough and Heavy Snow Event - 2nd-6th Oct

[Storm Struck]

Looking good from my vantage point for a storm chase Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms and hail with the SW change.
Possibly more isolated and about the coast south of Christchurch from afternoon in a W-SW flow but a much better chance at night as a cold pool skirts past Banks Peninnsula and flow tilts S-SW.

[tgsnoopy]

Dry air equals just cold. Darn, where's that moisture to dump heaps of snow & close roads etc.

Oh well, lets hope that cold air leads to subsequent thunderstorms as things get unstable with warm air moving in.

I look forward to discussing this later at the event, closer to it happening.

[Richard]

Looking good from my vantage point for a storm chase Saturday afternoon/evening thunderstorms and hail with the SW change.
Possibly more isolated and about the coast south of Christchurch from afternoon in a W-SW flow but a much better chance at night as a cold pool skirts past Banks Peninnsula and flow tilts S-SW.

Getting near that time of year now Jason where the land warms enough for produce build ups more inland than coastal,even though the MS through summer months insist on using the terms "SW and showers about the coast"when acutely the opposite occurs

[Storm Struck]

Yes very much so Richard such as today weak CU build ups around the place from not only a SW dying but also the moisture from the last few days on land.
Should have a better idea from tomorrow how things are looking.

[Michael]

Big pool of cold convective air currently under Australia and the tasman.

[mikestormchaser]

My thoughts are the pre W-NW flow is going to dry out and kill of anything for Saturday night as also thought from other chasers.
Tomorrow afternoon could warm up nicely, just hope the wind stays down most of day!!

[Storm Struck]

This is why i think showers will do thier usual trick in a W-SW flow during the afternoon, showers from Banks Peninnsula southwards generally along the coastline and offshore some heavy and briefly thundery.
At night a colder S-SW flow moves in with wintry air and CB showers, this may be the onshore thunderstorm trigger i am thinking.
But we shall see, the snow level will definatly be down to around 300m atleast.

[NZstorm]

The cold snap in the south is certainly the weather story for the next few days but the talk should be snow rather than thunder. Any thunder activity will be south of Oamaru on Saturday but snow flurries to sea level look on the cards overnight Saturday/Sunday, settling to about 200m in the south by the looks.

[Storm Struck]

Yeah looks like that cold pool sits over the lower south for Saturday now, but i have no doubt we will get the typical wintry CB's on Sunday few claps of thunder in some heavier hail showers maybe.
Nice warm one so far today with breezy N-NW winds and 21.2C currently.

[borris89]

loud clap of thunder just heard here in central dunedin, heavy downpour as well.

[snowstormwatcher]

had a heavy shower this morning but otherwise a fine day here

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Currently 23.2 degrees outside. Lovely day with a breezy NW

[mattyj46]

Looks like we're about to get a bit of heavy rain here.

[Manukau heads obs]

looks like a thunderstorm moved through the Raglan area this afternoon...moving down on the frontal line...
I picked up a few strikes from there and the rain radar shows heavy rain in that area

[NZstorm]

700mb chart for 9am Monday. Suggests some snow over lower and eastern North Island to quite low levels early Monday.
I use the 700mb/-15C as an indicator for wintry showers to low levels.

[mikestormchaser]

Currently 23.2 degrees outside. Lovely day with a breezy NW

Was a good effort indeed to get to 23.2C r whatever the temp was today!! I didnt relise it was that warm at around 3pm until i went outside.. well i kinda was outside but was inside..
Few bits of weak CU around again to, good signs up and coming.
I think tomorrow is out of the question for storms by what iv heard and esp that pre frontal NW-W

[NZstorm]

Starting to look like a possible warm advective snow event over the eastern NI ranges and Volcanic Plateau Sunday into Monday. The low does stay quite shallow though, ideally we would want to see it deepening, for a good snow event. Certainly some wintry weather on the way for much of the country.

[Tornado Tim]

Early this morning (3AM to 5 AM) something strange happened, Cb's just started popping up around Hamilton (out of nothing) from the Westerly flow and dumped torrential falls around the area.
Here is 1 of the rain radar images, note the nice red blotch that came sweeping across around half past 5.
Here is my Graph when it came through, note how the barometer shot up when it came through.
haha past 1000 posts now, all in 1 year, haha!

[Manukau heads obs]

I saw those on the rain radar
we missed the rain here
barometer is rising here too, and the wind has eased a bit
so I would say the front has lost the battle a bit against the high to the north
the developing low to the west is the next thing to watch...getting lightning strikes recorded from that here now

[otagoshred]

Heavy snow in Arrowtown this morning. Big flakes and settling.

[Richard]

Dont know whether is say lucky you or bugger that

[Andrew Massie]

Snowing heavily in Queenstown at the mo... check http://www.queenstownairport.co.nz/faci ... ?x=35&y=22 out! Only works in IE.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Im thinking this is going to pack more of a punch than the Metservice thought! The coldest of the air for Central Otago and Southland looks from tonight but Queenstown already down to 1 with some fairly heavy snow falling, going by the webcams. Currently 15.5 here with a fresh NE

[gllitz]

I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility of seeing a few flakes here and there...nothing special though...more for the South (Otago, Southland, Fiordland)

[Manukau heads obs]

latest GFS model run is deepening this incoming tasman low alot!
(as we thought might happen at the weather meet today)