System 9-10th October affecting central/eastern areas

[Michael]

A nasty system similar to the last though it looks shortlived affecting mostly the NI with southerlies in the east.From ecmwf.

[Storm Struck]

Atleast the top half of the South Island will get something from this low system, as the last one was rather rediculous for us.
I still can't wrap my head around the fact MS seems to think snow to low levels is 400-500m, i always thought snow to low levels would be 100-300m either or for some though i surpose.
I see also the MS have now changed the names for the rain radars, New Plymouth is now Taranaki rain radar, Christchurch is now Canterbury rain radar which sounds better as it is based near Rakaia.
Invercargill is now Southland rain radar also.
But very nice to see the sunshine for a second day , get rid of this dry southerly flow for abit i reackon .
Back into much needed rain here tomorrow/Friday/Saturday.

[Richard]

And a frost tonight too Jason.
I see that the MS had being saying snow down to 300m in North Canterbury and Marlborough.The one thing ive noticed with living in this valley is that's when a particular low level is issued, most times falls 100 m lower.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Interesting to see what happens with the oncoming system?
Hope we get a bit more rain out of this one.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Richard]

Yes John,we need it here,we have only had 18mm in the last 6 weeks

[NZstorm]

There looks to be a thunderstorm risk over Northland/Auckland on Friday but at this stage the risk looks lowish due to marginal instability but its a set up that could deliver on the day so worth watching out for. The wind shear with the front is looking good with a strong low level NE under a 50kt NW mid level flow. If any thunderstorms do develop, a spin up tornado could be possible.


This next system doesn't look as good for snow as the last one.

[Storm Struck]

I am assuming you mean for the North Island NZstorm, as the South Island will be marginally colder as the low runs into the up coming southerly.
Interesting to note tonight on the one news weather for Friday they had the Snow shower symbol for Christchurch area but it was for snow above 300m.
That seems abit confusing to some if its 300m it wont affect the CBD so why put the symbol up when they havnt done this in the past before when there's been snow to 300m.
What if grandad hasnt got his hearing aids in and sees the snow symbol for Christchurch .
I was going to quote tonights weather from TVNZ but its not online yet, so you could see what i meant.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice already have now upgraded snow for Cantebury north of Rakaia to warning. They say "up to 20-30cm to 400m with lesser falls as low as 200m".

[melja]

I am assuming you mean for the North Island NZstorm, as the South Island will be marginally colder as the low runs into the up coming southerly.
Interesting to note tonight on the one news weather for Friday they had the Snow shower symbol for Christchurch area but it was for snow above 300m.
That seems abit confusing to some if its 300m it wont affect the CBD so why put the symbol up when they havnt done this in the past before when there's been snow to 300m.
What if grandad hasnt got his hearing aids in and sees the snow symbol for Christchurch .
I was going to quote tonights weather from TVNZ but its not online yet, so you could see what i meant.

The snow symbol is an area one not for chch but for that area of canterbury, three on the coast-buller, westland, south westland etc.

[snowstormwatcher]

it would be nice to see some snow here in south canterbury as we have had hardly any snow this year

[Michael]

Heard reports of light snow around the hills of Taihape this morning.

[Razor]

So where are all our Canterbury friends jumping up and down in excitment?

Its a juicy looking front!

[Richard]

I'm not Razor,i'm a gardener,its all right getting snow in winter when theres nothing much in the ground,but this time of year.....

[barrybob]

Hope its not too bad

My only free weekend of the month and I am supposed to be heading across to Chch to pick up a boat.

[Storm Struck]

Good luck Barry i would say the passes will be closed unless you have a good set of chains.
Interesting weather today nothing like what was first intially predicted, low cloud burnt off this morning and the wind swung NE which it still is.
It was sunny for quite some time actually reaching 15C by midday, but high cloud is thickening with a CU line runing from SW-NW.
Had a few light spots of rain before, looks like that could change soon with rain clouds closing in feels abit muggy too.
I have a feeling this might be our best system coming so far this year, the timing of the system in colision with the cold air from the south is reasonably close.
With heavy snow down to 200m forecast we are likly to see sleet and some good steady wanted rainfall.

[Michael]

Looking at the metservice chart it has the centre over about Hamilton tomorrow and the easterly fetch seems to be furthur south than ECMWF originally prognozed.

[Razor]

Yes it really does look to be developing raidply right now, rain band already sweeping down from North Canterbury. Just imagine if this was a June/July event....

[Lawrence]

So where are all our Canterbury friends jumping up and down in excitment?

Its a juicy looking front!

Mmmm,yep,I'm here.Just waiting for the next runs.Friday morning looks pretty cold.Trying not to jinx it.

[MoorfNZ]

*jumping up and down*

I've logged in, which means only one thing... there's bad weather on the way!!! At 300m I'm hoping for some snow, hubby isn't as he's worried about the garden... but then, he has Bathurst!!!

[MoorfNZ]

Pouring with rain here - has been for about an hour. What's it doing in your neck of the woods?

[Storm Struck]

In my neck of the woods or wood i just brought in for the night , its been patchy rain only light though.
Looks like the majority of it is focused inland at the moment, lots of instabilty underneath the extensive high cloud this afternoon.
What develops overnight and into tomorrow will be something to watch for.

[Lawrence]

Steady rain at the moment with a brisk south easterly,temp 7.9c with a wind chill of 4.0c.Log burners on full whack and knocking out 24kw.

[Lawrence]

The latest charts are looking fantastic, right down to 100m,I am very confident that I may not be going to work tomorrow,snow looks very likely to be very heavy for Canterbury region at the moment,north Canterbury is a definite warning for most of the precipitation. What a sting in the tail for winter

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Raining here since 4pm with a light SE.
Cloud eventually building in from the south but now seems to be from the NE.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Storm Struck]

Light to moderate rain has set in now with a fresh NE wind, although cold on 9C.
If its heavily snowing down to 200m by tomorrow morning then i would expect the freezing levels to drop down past that to a possible near sea level event .