A Bigga Trough's' a'Comin' and a Goin'

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/10/2009 22:55

I noticed yesterday on MetService's noon, well 1pm, chart, over Tasmania, there was a nice H moving over the island state of 1035hPas. Nice sunny day there. However on today's 1pm,chart the high is moving away to the NE into the Tasman Sea and the anticyclone pressures are dropping away dramatically as it does so.
Will this be the last anticyclone for a while, from that way hense the cold weather?
In behind looks as though that there is a big trough coming with some weather on the way for most parts of the country for well into the coming week and into the week after, especially for western areas.
....and there seems to be more after that.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sun 11/10/2009 22:59

Will it be a big enough trough for your horses to drink from John

, or will some unexpected thunderstorms fill up your troughs in the paddocks

.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 11/10/2009 23:04

Jasestorm wrote:Will it be a big enough trough for your horses to drink from John , or will some unexpected thunderstorms fill up your troughs in the paddocks .

Hope so. Jase

$\:D/$

JohnGaul
NZThS

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 12/10/2009 06:44

They were my thoughts also when i saw the charts this morning John,here's hoping

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 12/10/2009 11:03

This looks fantastic on the GFS

Since this is associated with a High pressure system, There will be minimal cloud cover so hopefully it will intensify a bit.
Hopefully it will move in more of a easterly direction rather than a NE.
I have attached a GFS CAPE chart and a SLP model from M/S:

Linkback Chart: http://www.metservice.co.nz/public/maps ... atest.html
LinkBack SLP Model: http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus6.24hr.png

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 12/10/2009 17:10

I see MS have a low risk of isolated thunderstorms for us tomorrow, and a moderate risk for South Canterbury/eastern Otago.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 12/10/2009 18:14

This NW wind would have to die out here for this area to get any build ups,

MS have been saying light winds inland in the forcast in the last few days,got that wrong we've had two days in a row of 30-40km NW winds

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Mon 12/10/2009 18:39

Jasestorm wrote:I see MS have a low risk of isolated thunderstorms for us tomorrow, and a moderate risk for South Canterbury/eastern Otago.

As usual it has to happen on a Tuesday ... someone or something must have put a spell on me !!!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 12/10/2009 20:08

Looks to be a thunder risk over many parts of NZ later in the week. I guess northerners will be watching Thursdays front in the models. A nighttime lightning show could be on the cards but thats more wishcasting at this stage.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 12/10/2009 20:26

NZstorm wrote:. A nighttime lightning show could be on the cards but thats more wishcasting at this stage.

'Wishcasting' - nice terminology for lots of us wishing for thunderstorms to develop from a scenario

JohnGaul
NZThS

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 13/10/2009 07:05

I see the high cloud coming up the South Island in morning,if that hangs around, there goes any chance of a Canterbury storm event

for now anyway $\:D/$ as you said Steven,looking good for later in the week.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 13/10/2009 07:23

there goes any chance of a Canterbury storm event

yes, thunder not possible over Canterbury today with only marginally cold upper air. Looks like thunderstorms reach Westland/Buller tommorrow and we'll we see what happens later in week.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 13/10/2009 10:07

That high cloud line is now clearing to allow daytime heating, i think MS are also referring to the NE/NW affect.
Its currently a typical morning land breeze from the westerly quarter, but will change in about an hour to NE.
MS seem confident for areas south of Timaru with 10-20mm hail, we will have to wait and see.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 13/10/2009 10:22

Yer and its is clearing quicky,a SE wind here this morning instead of a NW,so who knows.

Ya heading down Timaru way Jason??

CHCH Weather Chaser · Tue 13/10/2009 13:10

The last 2 or 3 runs have shown a southerly here on Friday with some rather decent looking rain, this next one looks the same as well. Its strange that the Metservice are forecasting around 18-19 degrees with cloud, occassional rain and light winds....It does look very unsettled for here from friday onwards with wind directional changes in all directions and showers on and off.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Tue 13/10/2009 16:29

So much for even any showers this afternoon, although looks like a good isolated shower just SW of Dunedin inland abit.
What a great day otherwise again, very changeable from tomorrow onwards.
Could be a thunderstorm chance in there somewhere between Wednesday-Sunday

.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 13/10/2009 18:51

Mainly clear skies but I did notice one or 'fists' in some weak isolated Cu to the west of here later this afternoon

...just north of 'Thunderstorm Corner'

JohnGaul
NZThS

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Tue 13/10/2009 22:42

I know where that is! $\:D/$

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Tue 13/10/2009 22:45

Andrew Massie wrote:I know where that is! $\:D/$

You cunning stunt

JohnGaul
NZThS

Lacertae · Unread post by **Lacertae** » Wed 14/10/2009 00:28

It would be good if you could share the location guys !

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Wed 14/10/2009 00:43

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Andrew Massie wrote:I know where that is! $\:D/$

You cunning stunt

JohnGaul
NZThS

Lacertae, It'll co$t ya!

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 14/10/2009 07:08

It seems Northland could be in the firing line.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 14/10/2009 08:14

Low risk for Canterbury for friday at this stage. Luck, happen to have the day off. The cloud cover may kill it but if it was to clear then anything is possible.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 14/10/2009 09:20

Nice mild sunny morning after (except a few hours after 2pm yesterday) of 2 days of almost wall to wall anticylonic gloom.

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Wed 14/10/2009 11:06

Shower just roared through here like a freight train, funny that, there was one heading down the NI trunk.
This babys going to pack a punch, have been watching the buildups since early afternoon yesterday.

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A Bigga Trough's' a'Comin' and a Goin'

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