Thunderstorm Potential Early Dec 2009 in the North

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jamie
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by jamie »

just a muggy showery day here.
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Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I dont know why M/S put a high risk on today. The upper air temps were/are too warm. The cloud cover stops any thing from starting so why would they post a "high" risk? hmmmmm
I had little confidence that today would pan out.....
Seems tomorrow is similar.....
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Vertigo »

im guessing that the expected convergence line would have pushed the lower levels up, effectively raising the cape.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Michael »

Nothing to see really,Rain hilted down most of the time with no wind,cleared about cambridge to clouds and hot here.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by spwill »

Norwester pushed away weak NE, Cu line with isolated showers, dry day here.
photo of covergence line out east mid afternoon from Airport
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks to have been a bit of early evening lightning around the top of Northland and in central Otago.

I think there may have been an issue with the low level moisture today, you can see it on Tims skew-t and then on the 00Z NZWP sounding. A dry slot just off the surface.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Nothing to write about from down here.

Very low cloud most of the day. It was so bad this morning it wouldn't have surprised me if the airports were closed.

Light occasional showers.

Worked in Whakatane this morning & Opotiki this afternoon.

I knew it wouldn't go off cause I bothered to refresh the Rain-X and charged the batteries for the camera. It Jinx's it every time.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

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NZstorm wrote:Looks to have been a bit of early evening lightning around the top of Northland
Oh... I missed it!!! of all the rotten luck... still... this is what it pretty much looks like outside there now over the bay in that darkness took this about an 45 mins.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by DT-NZ »

tgsnoopy wrote:Nothing to write about from down here.

I knew it wouldn't go off cause I bothered to refresh the Rain-X and charged the batteries for the camera. It Jinx's it every time.
Hi ya Snoopy - :wave: thanks for the smiles *chuckle*
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

big area of heavy rain heading towards the upper NI from the NW!
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by NZstorm »

GFS is forecasting 25mm for Auckland today.

Thunderstorm chances could be good tomorrow Thursday. The 500mb temps cool off nicely to -16C over Auckland and currently the gfs suggests we will still have some low level moisture in the afternoon. A bit of a fickle set up though as the moisture will be on the way out with a cooler drier easterly pushing in. Have to see how it looks tomorrow.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by borris89 »

nice thunderstorm over the hawkes bay ranges right now, can hear faint thunder from here.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by spwill »

Also thunderstorm activity just west of lower NI drifting SE, sat pic shows some nice development down there.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by borris89 »

Southerly has just come thru hawkes bay with pretty good lightning and extremely heavy rain and around about a 6C temp drop
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by jrj »

Yeah, I know! I was drivin' in it :wave:

20mm in the last hour.

60mm to 9am today :yum:
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by borris89 »

haha so was i, stuck in a line goin 30kph in a 100 zone
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Well... I diffinately heard a rumble out over the Tasman somewhere about 5 mins ago ... there was a momentary powersurge, the lights flickered... hmmm...
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I think Waikato is more in for a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow.
There is a definable unstable layer in charts im getting. MS have a high risk of thunderstorms with a low risk of severe ones.
This very much depends if the cloud cover goes......
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by jamie »

thick thick fog here so lots of low level moisture and a dew point of 15 right now.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

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Low overcast in Auckland this morn with temp 17C and dewpoint 17C.

Given the upper air is cooling due to the approach of an upper trough in the Tasman, today looks our best chance for thunderstorms in a long while. :smile: Also, tomorrow is looking good for storms/hail over Northland/North Auckland if the low level moisture doesn't get cleared out.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by jamie »

heck the sky is as black as the ace of spades to the north.. its building too. The main trough is still not here yet so i hope this doesnt cool our temp too much if we do get this black cloud. The sun was out at about 7.30 and it was warming nicely but now we have this overcast sky.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Totally agree Jamie, very dark looking north.....
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by dan »

You can see that convergence line forming just north of here
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by jamie »

Sure is building quickly on that convergence line as you pointed out Dan
Dan would you be interested in a chase if it is worth while chasing? Tim and i are looking at going. I just have to be back in time for milking at 3pm which is a bummer.
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Re: Thunderstorm Potential Early December, 2009

Unread post by dan »

Yeah me and my brother are probably about to head out to have a look. Might just head north. Maybe we could catch you guys in Ngaruwahia or Huntly
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