High Risk of Thunderstorms - SI, Sunday 10 January

[tich]

Now raining out here - hopefully it'll continue through the night, as it's been rather dry lately. Outer Banks Peninsula hasn't had much precipitation from recent southerlies.

[03Stormchaser]

Another typical weekend Canterbury forecast from metservice! 1 of 3 bust severe thunderstorms forecasts for the summer.
I guess we wont get an explanation as to why metservice had such a high risk for today. For the last couple of days, looking over the models I didnt see very much other than the fact there was a strong change coming thru but like the past 2 times when metservice have choked we were sucked in believing that there was something more that we couldn't see.....
my 2c worth for what its worth

lucky for me I couldnt chase anyway this time!!

[mikestormchaser]

Yes u were lucky in that sence Steve! didnt miss much at all.
Whats the beat it will all happen when im at bloody work again and im getting txts from all you guys giving me updates like last time
Absolutly guttering stuff

[dogmelon]

I wonder where Paul Mallinson is? I like reading what he has to say.

[melja]

Well the mackenzie basin had some awsome storms today, rain over night cleared and allowed some good heating and in fact it was steamy for a time.
Could here loud thunder from about 1:30pm and im guessing that was from omarama way then it moved right up the basin and out over burkes pass, we left the camp at benmore as it hit around 2:30pm and the thunder was every 30sec and we followed it right up to burkes pass were it went on up the foot hills.
Would have seen at maybe 15 lightning strikes and all to ground in fact one very close when on the cannal road with a blinding flash and very loud boom, very heavy hail and rain most of the way to burkes pass and could only travel at 40kph at some points.

So there was storms today and you guys that call your selves storm chasers maybe need to start chasing them rarther than going the same short distance to the same place all the time.

[NZstorm]

Yes, there was certainly some lightning activity from Mackenzie Country through to near Waimate so not a total bust today.
I never liked the cloud cover today which led to zero CAPE over the plains.

[melja]

Yes, tomorrow could be interesting over Canterbury with some good convergence in the modeling along the southerly change. Looks like some instability develops over inland South Canterbury middle of the day and moves northward with the system during the afternoon. The negative with this set up will be the overcast cloud cover.

In fact it was said in post 2 what may happen so spot on NZstorm

[Dean.]

Barely 5 minutes of sunshine today explained the lack of storms over the plains,as NZStorm mentioned yest!

[Weetbicks]

Here's a couple of vids

Vid 1
Vid 2
Vid 3

[03Stormchaser]

... and you guys that call your selves storm chasers maybe need to start chasing them rarther than going the same short distance to the same place all the time.

Point taken melja, Guys dont chase anymore, old melja doesnt like it when we chase to the same old place when there is a high risk in place!

[mikestormchaser]

... and you guys that call your selves storm chasers maybe need to start chasing them rarther than going the same short distance to the same place all the time.

Point taken melja, Guys dont chase anymore, old melja doesnt like it when we chase to the same old place when there is a high risk in place!

Agreed steve esp when its inforce for canterbury and not north or central otago.

[03Stormchaser]

I dont deny there was storms down in the Mackenzie country, I was watchin them in realtime online and the did look good. What im questioning is the accuracy of metservices recent thunderstorms forecasts for canterbury, Im not sure if meljas memory can go back 2 far but metservice has had a couple shockers recently, they might aswell cover the entire SI in a high risk then if a storm fires up anywere the forecast would be correct!!

Im just frustrated at there lack of accuracy and fact we dont ever hear anything after a storm event, the tax payer pays for these thunderstorm forecasts its the least they could do.

[melja]

Last time i looked mackenzie basin was still in canterbury and the high risk was for most of canterbury not just chch, storms arnt widespred they are localised thats why M/S draw a large area and not just a ring around rakiaia they will form anywere in that area were conditions suit.

[Dean.]

The main rain band has passed here now,leaving the odd shower.
Real chill in the air,feels like May,will be some fresh snow on the hills.
Round two tomm night with the low off the east coast of the South Island? Maybe very coastal tho.

[Manukau heads obs]

some good points there I think melja

[mikestormchaser]

some good points there I think melja

I too have to wonder how we didnt get anything.
And to be honest i dont think we were about to drive another 3 hours to get to Omarama when the time was 3pm.
Its just lucky you were in the right spot at the right time Melja.

[Andrew Massie]

So there was storms today and you guys that call your selves storm chasers maybe need to start chasing them rarther than going the same short distance to the same place all the time.

'There was'? 'Your selves'? 'rarther'? Sorry, struggling to make sense of that post.

Oh, I bow to your AMAZING stormchasing ability. I had a broken watch, and that was right twice a day. Oh, and your superiority complex too. You just keep patting yourself on the back.

[Thunder]

Well storms generally come from a southern direction, so most of the time we head south. The Rakaia area seems a good launching platform where you can then head off to other areas should storms fire, we are not necessarily expecting storms at Rakaia each time. But if they happen around there then that's good.

As NZstorm said yesterday that high cloud was an issue, I could see it in the models last night and this morning (well obviously because all you had to do was look at the sky, lol). Another thing I saw was while the air was cooling it wasn't particularly cold considering the conditions at the surface (lack of moisture). Still we go out looking for something interesting to happen, in the slight chance that something might.....lol.

Oh well, next time eh.

Aaron

[Lacertae]

Quite disappointing today, sitting for a wee while close to the milk factory in Dunsandel and later on Pudding Hill close to the Alford Forest, waiting for the whole thing to blow up and ... nothing ...
Nevermind, allowed me to get a clearer view on what happens on some "hot spots" like Alford Forest, Dunsandel and Malvern Hills.

EDIT : *angry after-midnight post about Melja's message*

[DT-NZ]

Great reading all those reports enjoyed all of the them - from the storm watchers on the ground to the storm chasers

Awesome!!!

[cantygal]

Yeah guys dont argue(which this forum seems to be notorious for!)

Great that you went out and did it and I can see both sides. At least you didn't sit on ya bum and just watch your pc all day

[Richard]

Here's a couple of vids

Vid 1
Vid 2
Vid 3

I see what you "plains folk" where saying about lots of low cloud,here right up to the front hit we had the typical high NW cloud and strong wind,so i wasn't getting to excited cause If the NW is blowing the chances of storms around here from the SW is damm near zero

[Lacertae]

Yeah guys dont argue(which this forum seems to be notorious for!)

Great that you went out and did it and I can see both sides. At least you didn't sit on ya bum and just watch your pc all day

Hard not to argue when someone comes and says that you're not worth much as a storm chaser ... as you say, WE at least do not stay in front of the computer all day. We spend time, energy and money chasing and therefore perfectly have the right not to go too far if that's what we want or can afford. And if mister melja thinks otherwise, let's see what sort of pics or vids he brings back from his own long-distance storm chasing ...

Anyway ...

What do you guys think of the North Canterbury alert for this afternoon ? And who would be on ?

[Richard]

What do you guys think of the North Canterbury alert for this afternoon ? And who would be on ?

Looks a hell of a lot more promising up here than yesterday,one the NW is gone,two a slight breeze is now coming from the east and three the cloud is now clearing.

[Lacertae]

All right, I'll go.

And from yesterday I only bring back one "interesting" video taken close to the Alford Forest :
Alford Forest (16MB)
I've missed most of the phenomenon but it did look great with heaps of very low clouds, spinning and going up !