Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

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Tornado Tim
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Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

It seems there is a chance of thunderstorms tomorrow around Waikato Eastwards including BOP.
Upper atmospheric cooling it seems will assist with any convection that occurs.
LI is expected to be around -1 which is usually suffice for t-storms in NZ.
500mb temperature is looking good around -18°C
As you can see there is a definable unstable layer, so hopefully something gets going.
The only thing i can say would limit this setup is the DP.
So hopefully the actual DP will be higher.
Update: M/S has issued a high risk for BOP tomorrow.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Hmmm why is this thread so quiet when its set to happen tomorrow?
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by jamie »

from what ive seen we will be quite lucky to see anything here tomorrow but ill be happy to see anything considering the run we have had recently. there are only a couple of people on here in tauranga and i dont think any in the wide BOP.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tornado Tim wrote:Hmmm why is this thread so quiet when its set to happen tomorrow?
Jinx factor? I dunno, I'm not holding my breath, but must concede that it is looking possible tomorrow ;)
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by spwill »

Shame much of the cold upper air moves across in the morning hours.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Brassnz »

I'm currently holidaying at Ohope Beach. Typically warm and sunny here, but looking towards the SE there are some massive buildups. Something's going down somewhere - Waikaremoana I'd guess?
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

your in a great spot then for CB watching tomorrow Brassnz!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Achten »

Nice T-storm in the Hawkes Bay this Arvo, 10mm over about a hour.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Yes very nice red/purple blotch too off the coast!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

I'm not sure about the possibilities tomorrow. The best of the upper trough swings across the upper North overnight and shift a little eastward tomorrow. Tauranga 500mb temperatures sum it up, at 6am -22.5C, at 1pm -21.1c and by 7pm -19.0C. I don't like set ups where the upper level temps are warming as we go thru the afternoon. I prefer the air to be cooling as we go through the afternoon LOL. Especially in a situation where the moisture is not great. So I'll hold off final judgment on tomorrows prospects until tomorrow morn.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Vertigo »

yes, looks quite marginal, and as we know, things dont always fire up at the best of times...
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

I think something will happen tomorrow, but just what and where is the big question.

It's still a little too far away to really be judging it. I'm going to be looking at around 10 or 11 tomorrow and then deciding if I'll go look.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

The upper trough is moving away today so the thunderstorm risk looks low apart from East Cape where a storm or two is likely.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

The Dew points look far to low now :(
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Brassnz »

Thunder here at Ohope, campers scurrying for cover. Very dark towards the south and east.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

I'm sitting here at the Metservice Severe weather desk with Paul watching developments that were predicted! Paul showed me how he does it and it's very cool!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Andrew Massie wrote:I'm sitting here at the Metservice Severe weather desk with Paul watching developments that were predicted! Paul showed me how he does it and it's very cool!
K, lucky you *smiles* - right oh then... what's happening in the skies above right over me here in the DB region - I've been watching nice huge CU top buildups these past couple of hours.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by jamie »

Lucky you Andrew. Not only for being at MetService with Paul but being there on a thunder day.

Sadly there is not even the slightest sign of things happening here. Just a nice day here. We need some full time reporters from the likes of Whakatane/Ohope
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

There was a lightning strihe near Ohope but I think the thundery convection this afternoon will be over East Cape.
Lovely day here in Auckland.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Michael »

NZstorm wrote: Lovely day here in Auckland.
Yes the wind is less than of late,a few clouds going up to the east and clear west,but any decent breeze at present is a nuisance blows all the needles all across the front of the house as theres so many now and just replenishes them lately apart from a day here and there
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Brassnz »

There was some reasonable instability here earlier today I'd guess, but that seemed to conclude with our short sharp storm just after midday. Nothing much more here (Ohope) now than a few puffy CUs which may deliver a heat shower or two. Some fairly lofty buildups to the West of here, maybe Tauranga-ish, and East Cape looks to be getting the predicted activity.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

A storm cell is just developing inbetween Otorohanga and Tokoroa, some strikes are currently being pickd up by it too.
Update: some strikes are now bring picked up around cambridge area.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

Michael wrote:
NZstorm wrote: Lovely day here in Auckland.
Yes the wind is less than of late,a few clouds going up to the east and clear west,but any decent breeze at present is a nuisance blows all the needles all across the front of the house as theres so many now and just replenishes them lately apart from a day here and there
I told you - cut the damn pine trees down!!!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Update as it looks now:
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Last edited by Tornado Tim on Tue 12/01/2010 17:00, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

can see them from here Tim
garden variety looking CB tops at the moment
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