Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

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spwill
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by spwill »

I wonder if there is a window of oppurtunity for a tropical system to move down towards us later next week????
GFS thinks so, moving a deep tropical low onto NZ at the end of month, loooong way out but something to watch .

Plenty of instability showing up for tomorrow, hope it delivers :smile: expecting thunderstorms.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tornado Tim wrote:While that is happening a cold pool is developing by the East coast of Australia and then will start orientate itself in a line as it starts to cross the Tasman (most likely in the form of a cold front).
But that is expected around monday next week (which no doubt the models will change)... but it is a thing to look out for in the models.
Typical, when I'm in Australia.

Fingers crossed for some action tomorrow.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Tornado Tim wrote:While that is happening a cold pool is developing by the East coast of Australia and then will start orientate itself in a line as it starts to cross the Tasman (most likely in the form of a cold front).
But that is expected around monday next week (which no doubt the models will change)... but it is a thing to look out for in the models.
tgsnoopy wrote:Typical, when I'm in Australia.

Fingers crossed for some action tomorrow.
Oh there you are :smile: G'day to you over there...

Well, you know TT when snoopy says Typical it means something - add to that he's also crossed his fingers - there has to be some action I reckon!!!!

Winds have arrived... some strong gusts.... very black out there now... toes crossed... :D
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

pic snapped earlier on today of what appeared to be an approaching (albeit ) weak front looking N ... some short time after that I saw an arc appear on the horizon out west with clear skies in the center of it - I had to take a pic of it.

See the appearance of this arch interested me as only a short time before that the skies were a gloomy, grey colour!!!!

so, we went down to the beach to take a look and from there I snapped another pic.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

All images below taken between 18:26hrs - 18:40hrs this evening looking W.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Ocassional powersurges with these strong gusty winds that have been coming through here over past hour or so.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I do like those photos :)
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Vertigo »

front dying out, probably wont be significant rain from it unless there is another blow up. the low tomorrow will be more interesting.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Manukau heads observer wrote:I do like those photos :)
Thanks Brian _b

Well, this is a significant report for me.

At approx 23:00hrs I observed my first 2010 night IC (flash) looking N - to awesome, see Tim... there was a little action somewhere *bubbly laughter* :rolleyes:
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Vertigo wrote:front dying out, probably wont be significant rain from it unless there is another blow up. the low tomorrow will be more interesting.
Just before my first significant flash for 2010 :mrgreen: ... I noted some heavy splattering of rain on the windows N... the winds picked up strong... quietened down now just abit.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by NZstorm »

The front is through Auckland city now with 7mm overnight. I see there was a little bit of lightning over E Northland/Coromandal. Looks like the weather should fine up a bit here this morning which is what we need. The upper air starts cooling off abit this afternoon with the low moving. So still looks favorable for pm thunder.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by ricky »

A quite active thunderstorm has fired up on the front passing into the Waikato.. should have passed near jamie.h around now
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, quite an active storm between Raglan and Hamilton, front looking more active for them.
Auckland dewpoints around 19/20C overnight.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

It hasnt crossed Hamilton yet, it should cross within the hour though. No thunder heard..... yet.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Its about to pass now, I have got heavy rain up to 100mm/hr! and Thunder heard :D
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by dan »

Awesome thunderstorm just passed over here. Super heavy rain and frequent thunder
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Wow, what a contrast to the other Hamilton Station! http://wx-matangi.dyndns.org/weather/wxwaikatomeso.php
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Vertigo »

quite a sight to see pretty much all of NZ included in some sort of thunderstorm risk!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by David »

that was pretty useless, 1mm rain :(
dryness seems to never end
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Michael »

Summer-Early autumn seems to be our dry season,winters the wettest though the opposite appears for southland and westland.We had a little more though it stopped soon after.
David wrote:that was pretty useless, 1mm rain :(
dryness seems to never end
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by jamie »

WOAAA Tim, you got 28mm? man that must have been intense. We got 8mm. Dad heard thunder hear but i didnt hear thunder where i was milking.
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by jamie »

about to get hammered again. very dark. very very low base to this
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

lucky buggers!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Tornado Tim wrote:Its about to pass now, I have got heavy rain up to 100mm/hr! and Thunder heard :D
Wow!!!
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Re: Convective Outlook Mid January- North Island

Unread post by Dale »

About 7:15am over the bombays I observed a land spout (very ropey) dancing around.
Lasted a good 2 or 3 minutes before roping out, no I dont have photos I was still 3/4 asleep and in the middle of pouring a cuppa, that comes first!

So, doesnt surprise me there was thunder in it, dumped a fair bit of rain as it came over here.
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