NZ Weather Forum

I don't normally like to be to critical of the metservice in regard to there accuracy because largely i feel they do a fine job in there forecasting but Canterburys forecast temperatures for Wednesday the 17th leaves me somewhat puzzled.
Given that air pressure is expected to rise over the South Island tomorrow and also that its the middle of summer means that anyone who understands ALL of Canterbury climate will know that the coastal sea breeze will keep temperatures from Oamaru through to Kaikoura in the low 20's.But what i'm puzzled about is i see they have Christchurch,Rangiora and Amberley on 19C, that fine, but then they have Waipara also 19C which is a area less influenced by the cooling of the sea breeze behind the Mt Cass hills ,then two more valleys further inland to the north at 175m above sea level they again have Culverden on 19C ,while Hanmer Spring just up the road and much higher at 380m on 24C .Lake Coleridge at 510m 28C.
I would like to know how do they come up with these forecasts,is it done by computer??if it is and considering there's been a recording station in Culverden for many years (though it shown to be unreliable in the past)why would it give a forecast high the same as CHCH given the weather patten expected tomorrow.

Wednesdays high for my area of Culverden is 28C

Ashburton has a forecast high of 20.ChCh 19.I agree,looking at the GFS weather model,850 temps are quite high,was waiting for a 25 or 26 forecast for tomm.ChCh usually quite a bit cooler under a NE wind.

19 it is with the high cloud cover

What i don't understand is that Metservice is forcasting Christchurch -Fine with high cloud 20C. Hmmm so why is it raining?

Lukemyster wrote:What i don't understand is that Metservice is forcasting Christchurch -Fine with high cloud 20C. Hmmm so why is it raining?

Forecast for "fine with some high cloud" in Auckland today - been mainly overcast all day...

Yep, defintely raining in ChCh, been out in it for the last hour

Lukemyster wrote:What i don't understand is that Metservice is forcasting Christchurch -Fine with high cloud 20C. Hmmm so why is it raining?

Most annoying for sure but I've no doubt that they'll change the forecast soon to include 'possible showers' or the like.

Lyn

Think there was high cloud when there were breaks in the stratus but its hard to tell the varying mix of white and grey.

Have to say they had the inital forecast of High Cloud spot on today.

Ok so the bottom of the frontal system stretching from SE from Ozzie was unexpectedly sucked back up over the South Island as high cloud (and a shower or two), but given this the temperatures i predicted weren't to far off if the high cloud is taken into account.My high today 24C,where i live is 15km from Culverden(would have bin 30+if the sun was out),dont know what CHCH was but i was working down that way today and it was nicely pleasant.
I started this thread to raise this issue because ive seen 10 years of this type of inaccuracy in there forecasting for this area,along with our area not being included in any forecast area,after a resent email to MS raising the issue, i was told that we should look to the mountain and high country, WHAT,at 175 m are we considered to be high country.

I notice on MetService's New website, the current weather map and sattelite picture don't update very often.

JohnGaul
NZThS

I never look at MS satellite picture,i much prefer the BOM one as its updated every hour

Richard wrote:I never look at MS satellite picture,i much prefer the BOM one as its updated every hour

Yes, there are others but you would think that their official site would be up to date ALL the time

JohnGaul
NZThS