NZ Weather Forum

Looks like a bit of an easterly flow develops over the NI during Monday which should be good for afternoon convergence showers. Maybe inland thunder as well, particularly Tuesday/Wednesday pm when a weak upper trough will be across the NI. South Island will also see some inland pm convection this week.

over the NI during Monday which should be good for afternoon convergence showers. Maybe inland thunder as well, particularly Tuesday/Wednesday pm when a weak upper trough will be across the NI.

Thing to like about the next few days is the seabreeze convergence , looks like it will be east of here tomorrow but probably over West Auckland tues/wends.

I hope the SI, also, gets a bit of thunder from convectiveness, as it has been lousy so far this month here.

JohnGaul
NZThS

Hey, this looks pretty cool, almost cellular structure?

Signs of instability out there this morn with some Altocumulus castellanus. The mid level air on the 12Z NZWP sounding looked quite unstable. Looks like the convergence zone develops early afternoon from south Auckland to Taupo. Certainly some thunderstorms inland NI but I'm not sure about Auckland.

Yeah the Accas is a good sign, even better the shower we had around the time of your post, very typical precursor to a thunderday.. now a bit of heating through the day and fingers crossed
It has that feel in the air.

I saw that scattered big rain drops had fallen on our deck when I went outside this morning....sign of instability perhaps...

i sure like this... camera is charging. if its intense ill take the afternoon off and chase. Tim, are you free this afternoon?

Sure am, Jamie!
The DP's are looking depressing though, If storms start to fire they will have quite a high base.
But then again when a storms start to drop precip that increases the RH helping the storm to drop a little bit lower, A classic example of this was 12th of January Storm we got, that had a DP of around 13°C then went to 15 or 16°C after some rain had fallen.
500mb temperature is OK, but i dont think much hail will be produced, if it does it will be very very small.

whats wrong with the dew points? i have a DP of 17 currently.

Easterly Sea breeze is trying to develop here now closer to the east coastline. However can't see any cumulus and it's already nearly 11am

The midnight sounding was showing a low level cap which means the instability will develop above the cap. Convection could be explosive when the cap breaks.

I will probably drive south mid afternoon, good visibility today, clear skies around Auckland.

Don't forget to charge those camera batteries folks.

Can we all group together at a meeting place?

Never fear! The wind is westerly in Raglan so the convergence should start soon..

spwill wrote:I will probably drive south mid afternoon, good visibility today, clear skies around Auckland.

Do have fun....for me no car = stuck at home.....arrggghh!!

Go for it guys!

Am looking forward to this evenings run down, if your back by then!

Aaron

sounds like itll be a great day. lots of convection has pulsed in the tasman overnight already. that trough should make things interesting late afternoon. awaiting the latest sounding now. wish i could leave the office.

Can we all group together at a meeting place?

As today is a work day for me I need to stay flexible with my time so I wont commit to meeting up at this stage

spwill wrote:

Can we all group together at a meeting place?

As today is a work day for me I need to stay flexible with my time so I wont commit to meeting up at this stage

No probs
It would be good if we could get a group together and meet up at designated place when these events come to rise
I will be getting my new car soon and that has plenty of room

Anyway this pic taken earlier this morning around 11 AM:
Nice AC Castelanus!

Now that I think of it, this may very well turn into a night setup as no decent convection seen as of yet.
Good for photography

something developing to the south now..

Tornado Tim wrote: Anyway this pic taken earlier this morning around 11 AM:
Nice AC Castelanus!

[/quote]

Got lots of that here too! Few small cumulus starting to bubble up now. Also it's one of our warmest summer days here so far... 26.6°C and DP 18° currently!

dan wrote:something developing to the south now..

Some explosive development to SE over the Kaimais!

i have taken lots of pics today. might get time to upload some before i go milk. but heck the development was EXPLOSIVE. it still is too. the cells are building so quickly.