Looks like a good fat high is in charge for early February, so not much way for interesting weather for us, or will it be??
JohnGaul
NZThS
Anticyclonic start for February
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: Anticyclonic start for February
It will be for you David,down here high pressure means heat for me
Re: Anticyclonic start for February
Great example of a blocking high system around the Sth Island out to the Chats and further east, essentially since mid January and looking like holding firm until next weekend.
From a seasonal forecast issued in the 2nd week Jan 2010:
……well to the east of New Zealand, about half way between New Zealand and South America there is a large area of warmer than normal sea. It is reasonable to conclude that this is associated with a consistent weather pattern, favouring troughs of low pressure over the Chatham Islands…..
…….High-pressure systems are likely to linger in the Tasman Sea and occasionally cross the North Island, bringing periods of dry sunny weather. Low pressure systems in the Southern Ocean may occasionally pass by close to Southland. The pressure difference between these highs and lows may bring periods of strong west to southwest wind to central and southern New Zealand. Consequently there is likely to be an accumulating fire risk in northern and eastern parts of the North Island……
.
……. Some of these troughs may come from the subtopics and bring a day or so of widespread wind and rain. Many of these troughs, accentuated by El Nino, are likely to bring cool, wet, west to southwesterly winds to south-western areas.
From another
The current El Niño is well-established in the equatorial Pacific, and is likely to persist at moderate intensity through the rest of summer, before weakening during the autumn. Scientists at NIWA’s National Climate Centre say that spells more of the same over the next three months: similar conditions to those experienced in December, for most of the country.
According to the centre’s latest outlook, mean sea level pressures are likely to continue to be higher than normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, resulting in stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand. Current dry soil conditions are likely to continue in the north and east of the North Island, and in much of the eastern South Island, where below normal stream flows and soil moisture levels are likely through to March. The centre says late summer (January to March) rainfall totals are likely to be in the below normal range in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in Nelson-Marlborough, and in the normal range in other regions. Temperatures are likely to be average or below average in all regions, for the 3-month period (January, February and March) as a whole. There will, of course, still be warm spells at times, especially in eastern regions in north-westerly wind conditions. Rivers flows and soil moistures are likely to be below normal in the north and east of both Islands, but in the normal range in western regions.
Funny how nature likes to screw up the best of science.
From a seasonal forecast issued in the 2nd week Jan 2010:
……well to the east of New Zealand, about half way between New Zealand and South America there is a large area of warmer than normal sea. It is reasonable to conclude that this is associated with a consistent weather pattern, favouring troughs of low pressure over the Chatham Islands…..
…….High-pressure systems are likely to linger in the Tasman Sea and occasionally cross the North Island, bringing periods of dry sunny weather. Low pressure systems in the Southern Ocean may occasionally pass by close to Southland. The pressure difference between these highs and lows may bring periods of strong west to southwest wind to central and southern New Zealand. Consequently there is likely to be an accumulating fire risk in northern and eastern parts of the North Island……
.
……. Some of these troughs may come from the subtopics and bring a day or so of widespread wind and rain. Many of these troughs, accentuated by El Nino, are likely to bring cool, wet, west to southwesterly winds to south-western areas.
From another
The current El Niño is well-established in the equatorial Pacific, and is likely to persist at moderate intensity through the rest of summer, before weakening during the autumn. Scientists at NIWA’s National Climate Centre say that spells more of the same over the next three months: similar conditions to those experienced in December, for most of the country.
According to the centre’s latest outlook, mean sea level pressures are likely to continue to be higher than normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, resulting in stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand. Current dry soil conditions are likely to continue in the north and east of the North Island, and in much of the eastern South Island, where below normal stream flows and soil moisture levels are likely through to March. The centre says late summer (January to March) rainfall totals are likely to be in the below normal range in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in Nelson-Marlborough, and in the normal range in other regions. Temperatures are likely to be average or below average in all regions, for the 3-month period (January, February and March) as a whole. There will, of course, still be warm spells at times, especially in eastern regions in north-westerly wind conditions. Rivers flows and soil moistures are likely to be below normal in the north and east of both Islands, but in the normal range in western regions.
Funny how nature likes to screw up the best of science.
Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
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Re: Anticyclonic start for February
With 10 days of February and all of March to come, any post-analysis is decidedly premature.