T-Storms, North Is. - Feb 25th

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 22/02/2010 20:43

Something could be coming up on Thursday

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 23/02/2010 07:36

Something could be coming up on Thursday

Does seem to be some convective possibilities with that front on Thursday. I would like to see the day warm up in advance of the afternoon front so thunderstorms can be triggered. Have to see how it looks on the day.

I notice the gfs plots some instability over the NI tomorrow (Wednesday) but does not break out any convection apart from East Cape. The flow will be NE which can favour convergence in the west of Waikato but I think the surface temps won't get high enough given warm upper level airmass.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 23/02/2010 17:40

GFS is still putting out some CAPE (instability) with Thursdays front over the North Island. Given the relatively warm upper air we'll have to see if this can eventuate. Timing of the front will be a factor, there needs to be daytime heating ahead of it.

David · Unread post by **David** » Tue 23/02/2010 17:51

NZstorm wrote: Timing of the front will be a factor, there needs to be daytime heating ahead of it.

At the moment, MS has 28Â°C for Auckland and 30Â°C for Whangerei on Thursday....may be revised down though

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Tue 23/02/2010 19:19

Thursday, will be stuck in Kawerau/Whakatane with he boss. Murphies law says an increased chance

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 24/02/2010 07:30

GFS brings that front in early tomorrow, with it well across the NI at 00Z. But Ukmet has it west of Taranaki at 00Z.
Also, with that colder trough crossing the SI tomorrow may see isolated pm TS inland Canterbury.

Interesting you've been getting warmer than here, especially with you being out on a small island in the gulf

Waiheke Island has been promoted in the past as being warmer than Auckland.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 24/02/2010 08:45

NZstorm wrote:GFS brings that front in early tomorrow, with it well across the NI at 00Z. But Ukmet has it west of Taranaki at 00Z.

Metservice is predicting it will cross NP at around 1 PM at this stage, if thats true there is quite a chance of hearing thunder

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 24/02/2010 11:52

MS rate our chances tomorrow for thunder. they have a high risk. might be time for a new thread

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 24/02/2010 12:32

Could a Mod make a thread by splitting the related posts up all the way back to my GFS post, Thanks

Saves us making up a whole new 1, LOL

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 24/02/2010 13:51

Wow the low is quite defined

Lastest NOAA MT-SAT Image attached.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 24/02/2010 16:41

Tornado Tim wrote:Could a Mod make a thread by splitting the related posts up all the way back to my GFS post, Thanks
Saves us making up a whole new 1, LOL

Done!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 24/02/2010 17:26

Thanks for doing that Nev.
How about some thunderstorms down here for a change?

JohnGaul
NZThS

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Wed 24/02/2010 18:52

Metservice have got low risk for tomorrow afternoon inland.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 24/02/2010 19:36

03Stormchaser wrote:Metservice have got low risk for tomorrow afternoon inland.

Low

JohnGaul
NZThS

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Wed 24/02/2010 20:55

yea, i have to say guys, it looks fairly marginal :/

edit: that said, they have upgraded it to moderate in the am, and high in the pm

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 24/02/2010 22:00

Vertigo wrote:yea, i have to say guys, it looks fairly marginal :/

edit: that said, they have upgraded it to moderate in the am, and high in the pm

I still think

"Computer says no"

JohnGaul
NZThS

Manukau heads obs · Wed 24/02/2010 22:39

there was a CB off the west coast Kaipara area around 6pm 2 nite I was surprised to see
anyone else see it?
I think it was elevated?
had a cap cloud and all!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 25/02/2010 05:13

Looks a few on the chart in the tasman....be here lunchtime.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 25/02/2010 08:48

Timing of the front will be a factor, there needs to be daytime heating ahead of it.

Overcast 22C with a dewpoint of 21C, Front just to the west, wont be much heating for Auckland perhaps locations further east will manage to heat up.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 25/02/2010 09:21

yea no sun here so dont rate our chances. MS have a severe thunderstorm watch out for a large area

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Thu 25/02/2010 09:54

No sun here either. Low of 20.6C here at 7:40am with 0.5mm of drizzle from around sunrise so far.

Noticed that this morn MetService have increased the heavy showers associated those thunderstorm-risks from 10-25mm per hr to 30-45mm per hr.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 25/02/2010 09:59

even though there is no sun the radar is showing a convergence line forming in the upper north island well ahead of this front. but it is mostly north of auckland. so maybe some sun up there?

David · Unread post by **David** » Thu 25/02/2010 10:05

jamie.h wrote:even though there is no sun the radar is showing a convergence line forming in the upper north island well ahead of this front. but it is mostly north of auckland. so maybe some sun up there?

Brightening skies here and can see a few blue patches appearing. 23 temp, 21 DP.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 25/02/2010 10:15

can see the base of a CB out to my west
low hanging jagged cloud

rain radar shows the best has moved into areas further south
hopefully it can re fire again up this way!

Manukau heads obs · Thu 25/02/2010 10:36

Westerly wind change arriving here now, with a line of light rain
disappointing amount of rain we are going to get here
places further in land by get more

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