Chance of Thunder 24th March, 2010

[Tornado Tim]

M/s have a moderate risk for Waikato southwards because of a trough then a cold front later on..
WXSIM has LI values to drop below zero around 3 PM with a temperature around the mid to lowish 20's°C mark.
A total totals index is expected to be around the low 50's mark, which means any storms that do develop can be quite healthy.
The upper air temperatures will cool quite significantly throughout the day it seems around -15 to -17°C according to the GFS.

Its my day off Tech tomorrow so I will be chasing if its good....... Jamie are you available?

[DT-NZ]

NEAT

[tgsnoopy]

Sigh, no car & working with the boss. The lil bomb is getting it's 4th engine in 4 months.

[NZstorm]

Yes, I have to agree, looking like a thunderstorm set up tomorrow afternoon over the west of the North Island as the cold front comes in. Also, GFS suggests the weak slow moving front across northern NZ may find some life in the morning with embedded ts possible tomorrow. We need a decent drop of rain!

[David]

Yes, I have to agree, looking like a thunderstorm set up tomorrow afternoon over the west of the North Island as the cold front comes in. Also, GFS suggests the weak slow moving front across northern NZ may find some life in the morning with embedded ts possible tomorrow. We need a decent drop of rain!

Yeah check out MS 3 day rain model, shows some heavy rain over Auckland tomorrow morning:
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... cast-3-day
Although it is modeled to be rather narrow

[NZstorm]

There would be a tornado risk for Taranaki today if surface winds can stay in a N direction. Currently NP airport has 340deg/15kts.

[Manukau heads obs]

can see yesterdays front is getting re activated to the NW of the auckland area on the sat pic
heading our way
yeah!

[David]

I am wondering if we are even going to manage 10mm today?
I would hope so, but seeing how fine and sunny it is this morning is worrying!

[Manukau heads obs]

sunshine ahead of the front is a good thing..the day time heating thing...

[spwill]

Yes, perhaps daytime heating will help fire up the Front given dewpoints are 18C, reminds me of winter with all the action in the Tasman..
Mid April to early May is usually when our summer ridge breaks down properly .

[Manukau heads obs]

what we need is the new trough in the tasman to shove onto us the old frontal boundary out to the west...hopefull that will happen this arvo

[Tornado Tim]

Some decent thunderstorms by the west of the south island.

[NZstorm]

Also a recent strike over the Waikato.

[Tornado Tim]

The trough has got very well defined on the radar now

[Kimkliff]

Saw a flash and heard a couple of good rumbles at lunch time, but hard to hear as the rainfall was torrential. All gone now, fine blue skies, with some cloud, and the hills are now visible as the cloud level has risen considerably. Quite fierce wind associated with this, and some damage to trees and fences etc out back of Westport towards the hills.

[DT-NZ]

Quite fierce wind associated with this, and some damage to trees and fences etc out back of Westport towards the hills.

Wow... any pics!!!

[Kimkliff]

Sorry - I had a Paid Union meeting and was stuck inside watching with awe (while I was supposed to be listening to our rep )

[Manukau heads obs]

was in waiuku, at the dentist
good heavy rain there ,9mm recorded at one station (the sandspit road station has the power off)

[spwill]

Just enough rain here to wet the pavement
Coast between Taranaki and kapati looks to be in the firing line for some thunderstorms , also there are some thundery Cbs coastal North Otago .

[jamie]

7 mm here so far. was in huntly today and they had far more than that and my uncle in raglan has had close to 30mm today

[Chris Raine]

Thunderstorms and small hail in Oamaru since 2.30pm . Active cell Nth of the town currently

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks as though TC is starting to develop

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Captain Salty]

looking SW from the port hills.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I wasn't going to put up a seperate topic on this, but it looks as though it may deliver here,

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Andrew Massie]

TC producing lightning on the tracker now.