The Big Dry

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Manukau heads obs
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the models are having a real hard time deciding what is going to happen
GFS back to looking like good rain again from the low from the NW
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Michael
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Perhaps theyre april fooling us :lol:
Manukau heads observer wrote:the models are having a real hard time deciding what is going to happen
GFS back to looking like good rain again from the low from the NW
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David
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by David »

Could this be the beginning of the end of the Big Dry?
rainfcst.png
Although the GFS has been inconsistent on this scenario so I'm not convinced yet
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

David wrote:Could this be the beginning of the end of the Big Dry?
Shh, don't jinx it!
Manukau heads obs
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the models still cant decide and keep putting back the day its gonna rain....
2004 was 14mm here, this march as 18mm here...more than the airport....
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Nev »

Thanks Brian. I recorded 11.4mm for March, 8.5mm for Feb and 45.0mm for Jan (total 64.9mm).
Be interesting to compare what other members recorded in the last months (and not just for Akld).

I suspect there may be more rainfall records broken in March than in Feb.
Here's a few 'official' rainfall totals from around Akld...

Code: Select all

NIWA - Auckland Reginal Rainfall (mm) for 2010

Jan    Feb    Mar
64.4   28.3   12.0   -  Warkworth 
45.0   17.6    6.6   -  Whangaparaoa 
55.0   11.0   12.0   -  Kumeu 
44.2   13.2    4.0   -  Albany (Campbells Bay)
66.5   11.3    -.-   -  Henderson, River Park 
41.2   17.0   22.0   -  Khyber Pass 
50.8    8.6   13.0   -  Mangere 
37.6   31.7    -.-   -  Ardmore 
44.0    4.6    7.6   -  Auckland Aero 
92.2   11.6   13.6   -  Pukekohe 
Interesting to see Ardmore apparently recording 32mm for Feb, with 22mm of that falling in the 24 hrs to 9am on the 26th.

Also worth noting that for March, more central Khyber Pass (near Akld Grammar) recorded 22mm, with 17mm of that falling in the 24 hrs to 9am on the 25th.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by David »

Thanks for posting the comparisons Nev :smile:

Adjusting to the 9am-9am times, my totals for Howick were:
Jan 64.6mm
Feb 21.0mm
Mar 17.8mm
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Michael
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Its raining here now,hearing it on the roof........ =D>
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Please let it rain in the far North where they really need it.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest run of the gfs has some unstable air crossing Northland/Auckland overnight Monday into Tuesday associated with a shallow low. Forecast LI's of down to -4 suggest thunder could be on the cards as well. I don't think they'll be a lot of rain but Isolated heavy falls look possible.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by DT-NZ »

NZstorm wrote:Latest run of the gfs has some unstable air crossing Northland/Auckland overnight Monday into Tuesday associated with a shallow low. Forecast LI's of down to -4 suggest thunder could be on the cards as well. I don't think they'll be a lot of rain but Isolated heavy falls look possible.
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Michael
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Did everywhere have the showers overnight (auckland) the leaves have drops etc but looked as it lasted only a couple of hours.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, a couple of brief shower here. Good to see the dewpoints have come up, hopefully we catch some good showers here in Auckland over the next day or two.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by iomkiwi »

tgsnoopy wrote:Please let it rain in the far North where they really need it.
We had a few mm in Kerikeri overnight, don't know about further north where they really need it.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

is that low to the NE moving SSW ?
if could keep doing that...might get a bit of rain from it..maybe more east cape way
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes. It looks like it plus that one in the Tasman Sea moving over there to join it.
Shame the lows are not moving over NZ to produce some interesting weather rather than this uninteresting stuff we're getting at the moment. :(

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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by spwill »

Drove through a heavy shower near the Airport this evening, rain for a few South Auckland gardens :smile:
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

spwill wrote:Drove through a heavy shower near the Airport this evening, rain for a few South Auckland gardens :smile:
Yea it was good shower, I drove through it too :)
If the convection wasnt so shallow it might of let out a clap :)
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, I noticed the line of t/cu yesterday, NE versus SW breeze.

The front moving onto Northland today is looking a bit weak still. The question is, can a thunderstorm fire up on it today? If it was summer I would say yes, but April, not so sure.

The upper air is colder tomorrow and the gfs is pointing to a thunderstorm risk over the Bay of Plenty/Waikato.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

We had a couple of mm I guessing last night from the showers spwill drove through at about 6pm.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Area's in the FN moreso places on the eastcoast do need rain - the rains are coming - we know this.
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

can just about smell the rain now...not far away now :)
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by GraemeWi »

Good solid rain on the roof here in Henderson :)
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Michael
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Funny "tapping sound" on the roof tonight,havent heard it a while...
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Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Only 0.4mm in total from the light period of drizzle this morning so no relief.
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2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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