The Big Dry

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

I got a text from a friend in Coopers Beach, he says the drought has finally broken, first decent rain in 6 months!

Lets hope they get enough to fill their tanks.
User avatar
DT-NZ
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon 09/02/2009 10:55
Location: Northland, NZ
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by DT-NZ »

tgsnoopy wrote:I got a text from a friend in Coopers Beach, he says the drought has finally broken, first decent rain in 6 months!

Lets hope they get enough to fill their tanks.
Awesome _b

Be great to know what the rainfall amounts were.
Lightning in NZ
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
User avatar
CHCH Weather Chaser
Posts: 3460
Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Few climpses of sun earlier this afternoon. Perhaps Hawkes Bay will get some decent rainfall from later tonight through tomorrow morning which will be welcome and hopefully some heavy and persistent shower lines become slow moving over the areas that need some rain. Below is the outlook for Christchurch/Canterbury from Blue Skies for the next 10-12days. No rain forecast except a 50% chance of 1-3mm on Monday with NW and warm temps dominating over the period.

Wednesday 10% Cool Light S
Thursday 10% Average Light N
Friday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Saturday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Sunday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Monday 50% 1-3 Warm/cool Moderate NW/SW
Tuesday to Thu 10% Warm Moderate NW
Friday to Sun 10% Warm Moderate NW
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas

2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

latest GFS shows an active trough crossing the country from the tasman next week :) :)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by spwill »

A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

gotta happen eventually!
just hope May stays in the normal to above normal temperature range after we get some decent rain, so that pasture cover can build before winter
(and not like last may which was one of the coldest on record with early frosts etc)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Better believe it,ECMWF had a large complex low in the tasman,revised to tasmainia,now not there apart from some trough now.
spwill wrote:A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
User avatar
DT-NZ
Posts: 1010
Joined: Mon 09/02/2009 10:55
Location: Northland, NZ
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Michael wrote:Better believe it,ECMWF had a large complex low in the tasman,revised to tasmainia,now not there apart from some trough now.
spwill wrote:A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
Fabulous :bounce:
Lightning in NZ
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

hummmm
it might go back to just weak fronts and SW winds continuing next week now?

hopefully a pattern change does occur...the models cant decide at the moment.....does your head in watching them!
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZstorm »

The front due next Monday will hopefully have some good moisture with it so a spell of rain then. The big dry of 94 didn't break untill well into June. Hopefully this one will break sooner than that.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Maybe it will be a slow "decline" into winter,without much activity from the north which has been the norm for months,the troughs will eventually become elongated more from the south which now seems to be hinting in the current pattern.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yes, that front does look promising,...might be 10 to 13mm or so?
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:Maybe it will be a slow "decline" into winter,without much activity from the north which has been the norm for months,the troughs will eventually become elongated more from the south which now seems to be hinting in the current pattern.

I don't think so.
I think the hinting of the current pattern will lead to shorter troughs and more stuff coming from the north in the months ahead and SW gales will become less likely in places like Auckland and Tauranga.

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

since this year seems to be like the the big dry of 93 ,also an el nino year, it might carry on like that year....which had big westerly gales in june from memory....that just kept on re building with new fronts into the western tasman from tasmania area
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looking more hopefull this next system early next week, and it might be an ice breaker and hearld in a new weather pattern of more active fronts from the tasman?
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, starting to look more like a mobile autumn pattern in the models. Rain is on the way!
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by RWood »

Manukau heads observer wrote:since this year seems to be like the the big dry of 93 ,also an el nino year, it might carry on like that year....which had big westerly gales in june from memory....that just kept on re building with new fronts into the western tasman from tasmania area
In the ONI classification system 1993 was a neutral year sandwiched between El Nino phases, though on the "nino" side of neutral. Pinatubo after-effects were still around and 1993 was much cooler (to end-April) than this year. June was exceptionally mild with persistent northwesterlies and westerlies. Enhanced frontal activity in June led Metservice (not NIWA) to make a projection that such weather would continue - however July was one of the driest and most anticyclonic winter months ever, and was followed by a rather dry August with anticyclonic southwesterlies.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Michael »

Of dry winters my memory 1985 was dry but not the N&E and more pronounced in 1989 in winter/early spring.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I remember july that year....anticyclonic gloom condtions the whole month...with mild temperatures and night, cool temperatures by day
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by RWood »

Manukau heads observer wrote:I remember july that year....anticyclonic gloom condtions the whole month...with mild temperatures and night, cool temperatures by day
Sunshine was down somewhat in some parts of the north, though not exceptionally so - 106 hours at Mangere.
User avatar
CHCH Weather Chaser
Posts: 3460
Joined: Thu 26/06/2008 16:10
Location: Halswell / Hoon Hay Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Just been looking at the weather section in the press and although we have had 110mm here in my area of Christchurch, the actual CHCH rain measurements to date this year is only 84.4mm when the average rain to this date is normally 173mm so not even half of the average. Sunshine hours are normally at 98 hours for april to this date where it is at 124.6 hours so far so well above the average.

Outside at the moment, not a cloud in the sky and a northeast breeze sitting on 17 degrees with a dew point of 12 currently. Should be some warm days ahead with the chance of some rain at the end of the weekend/early next week.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas

2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by Nev »

Mod Note: Split thread - see 'Developing Tasman Low - Apr 26-28'
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by David »

I entered the NZ Herald rain figures in a table, so I'll post it in case people are interested:
The data goes up until 6pm 23 April.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: The Big Dry

Unread post by melja »

I see chch is sitting very dry on that chart, the lowest in fact.
Locked