The Big Dry

[spwill]

Well done on the clips/ photos
No storm here but we had welcome rain last night, 12mm, perhaps our best fall since early December.


Mod Note: Split post from 'Chance of Thunder 24th March, 2010' thread due to ensuing OT discussion.

[Nev]

No storm here but we had welcome rain last night, 12mm, perhaps our best fall since early December.

Seem to recall heavy rain and flooding around Auckland, on the night of Jan 31/Feb 1.

[spwill]

Seem to recall heavy rain and flooding around Auckland, on the night of Jan 31/Feb 1.

The last flooding I can remember was early December, feb was the driest on record, there were some local thunderstorms at the end Jan mostly to the south and east of central Auckland.

[Michael]

8th february here have proof of heavy rain,have photo unable to u/l due to it too big

Seem to recall heavy rain and flooding around Auckland, on the night of Jan 31/Feb 1.

The last flooding I can remember was early December, feb was the driest on record, there were some local thunderstorms at the end Jan mostly to the south and east of central Auckland.

made it small but get the idea.

[Nev]

Seem to recall heavy rain and flooding around Auckland, on the night of Jan 31/Feb 1.

The last flooding I can remember was early December, feb was the driest on record, there were some local thunderstorms at the end Jan mostly to the south and east of central Auckland.

Getting a bit OT here, but this is from NIWA's National Climate Summary - January 2010 ...

Exceptionally heavy rain, associated with easterly conditions and numerous embedded thunderstorms, affected the North Island on 31 January... In the Auckland region, homes were flooded on the Whangaparaoa Peninsula, North Shore, Auckland City, and Howick. A woman was trapped in her car by rising floodwaters underneath a motorway overpass in Ellerslie, and another driver was trapped by flood water in Remuera.

[Manukau heads obs]

we had 25mm at the end of january here
if we had not had that, we would be a dust bowl here now!

[Manukau heads obs]

this is a good site for seeing who has had rain
http://www.rd1.com/web/content?in_section=5&in_item=8

[David]

this is a good site for seeing who has had rain
http://www.rd1.com/web/content?in_section=5&in_item=8

Except it says all of Auckland had less than 4mm rain...

[spwill]

from Niwa Jan summary

In the Auckland region, homes were flooded on the Whangaparaoa Peninsula, North Shore, Auckland City, and Howick. A woman was trapped in her car by rising floodwaters underneath a motorway overpass in Ellerslie, and another driver was trapped by flood water in Remuera.

looks like an error Nev, this event occured Dec 4th, was a mostly dry end to Jan around here, just a brief thundery shower.
Here is one news story from Dec 4th http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/heavy-d ... ld-3229162

[David]

from Niwa Jan summary

In the Auckland region, homes were flooded on the Whangaparaoa Peninsula, North Shore, Auckland City, and Howick. A woman was trapped in her car by rising floodwaters underneath a motorway overpass in Ellerslie, and another driver was trapped by flood water in Remuera.

looks like an error Nev, this event occured Dec 4th, was a mostly dry end to Jan around here, just a brief thundery shower.
Here is one news story from Dec 4th http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/heavy-d ... ld-3229162

See this page
http://www.weatherforum.org.nz/phpBB3/v ... &start=500

[Manukau heads obs]

humble pie at spwill's place 2 nite huh?

[spwill]

humble pie at spwill's place 2 nite huh?

Greylynn jan rainfall stats http://homepages.paradise.net.nz/tmcgav ... ather.html

[ricky]

Yep missed out on most of it here! http://www.greylynnweather.net/20100131.gif

[Manukau heads obs]

from memory yes I think some parts of auckland missed out that night

[Nev]

from Niwa Jan summary

In the Auckland region, homes were flooded on the Whangaparaoa Peninsula, North Shore, Auckland City, and Howick. A woman was trapped in her car by rising floodwaters underneath a motorway overpass in Ellerslie, and another driver was trapped by flood water in Remuera.

looks like an error Nev, this event occured Dec 4th, was a mostly dry end to Jan around here, just a brief thundery shower.
Here is one news story from Dec 4th http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/heavy-d ... ld-3229162

Thanks for the link spwill. Yes, it does indeed look like NIWA stuffed up (again) with that Auckland flooding report, the exact details of which match this story (also from TVNZ) from Dec 4th. There was however significant rain around Auckland on the night of Jan 31, although nowhere near that of Dec 4th. Here's a few obs from NIWA...

24 hr Rainfall (mm) to 9am Feb 1, 2010.
19.8 - Whangaparaoa
19.0 - Kumeu
15.0 - Albany
19.4 - Henderson
08.2 - Khyber Pass
11.0 - Mangere
08.2 - Auckland Aero
13.2 - Pukekohe

Re last night's rainfall, the 12.4mm to 9am at Ricky's, although intense, appears to have been relatively isolated compared to other figures around the region. And Akld Aero's 2.6mm was probably one of the lowest, which is not unusual for the airport - good for representative temps but not for representative rainfall.

Edit: Amended Khyber Pass figure.

[spwill]

Thanks Nev.
khyber Pass max fall was 9mm on the 21st .http://www.niwa.co.nz/__data/assets/pdf ... y-2010.pdf
I see Greylnn had 7mm on the 31st

[Manukau heads obs]

i remember 1993 it was june before soil moisture levels got back to growing levels in inland parts of the south auckland region

[Michael]

i remember 1993 it was june before soil moisture levels got back to growing levels in inland parts of the south auckland region

June 93 was showery can remember then july was dry for auckland after then was quite normal few months then dry till june 94,but rained more in september 94.

[Nev]

Thanks Nev.
khyber Pass max fall was 9mm on the 21st .http://www.niwa.co.nz/__data/assets/pdf ... y-2010.pdf
I see Greylnn had 7mm on the 31st

Oops yes, NIWA's cliflo actually shows 8.2mm for Khyber Pass on Jan 31, so I've amended the above list as such.

Btw, much has been made about Feb being the driest on record for Akld, based on the 4.6mm recorded at Akld Aero. However, 8.6mm wasn't the lowest Feb rainfall for Mangere, as NIWA states in its Feb Summary for the main-centres. One doesn't have to go back far to see that Mangere only recorded 5.0mm in Feb, 2006.

[Dale]

Driest around here I have seen since I have been here.. havent had to mow any lawns since xmas, pumping up from the bore & to top it all off 0230 this morning I heard the water pump kick in and out every few seconds.. knew straight away a pipe had gone. Out with the torch, sure enough one had burst. Shut off tank, pump & got the plumber in this morning.. one of the poly pipes had been eaten through by mice/rats.. pump was pressurising the lines & lost nearly 3/4 of our tank undearneath the house.

He said he is getting 2 or 3 callouts per day for this problem.. being on the farm, vermin come with the territory. It is not restricted to here however, in central Pukekohe itself the same problem exists.. the fact it is so dry, the vermin are simply looking for water & can hear them running through pipes, hence eating through to get them. Like this piece of poly on the bench atm. No amount of baits work, they are just scavenging for food and water.

The cracks around the property are nothing to laugh at, even that twat cricket commentator Tony Greig would not only have lost his heys in them, he would have fallen down there too. It is just extremely lucky that I caught the pump bleeding dry & tank about to run out when I did.. luckily again I can replenish it by the bore sunk 247 metres into the ground over in the other paddock. Other people dont have that luxury & I feel for them. I spent 15 years back in Brisbane praying a storm would give us another day or so water so know what its like for people around here.

If you have a tanker and want to earn some real hard, fast money right now.. cart water. Have backup drivers too cause it will be a 24/7 job until we get some !@#$% rain.

[Nev]

Thought it might be worth posting a few excerpts from this article a couple of days ago...

Auckland heading for driest quarter in more than 50 years - NZ Herald
By Eloise Gibson
4:00 AM Friday Mar 26, 2010

Auckland is headed for the driest three months since records began more than 50 years ago. Niwa climate scientist Georgina Griffiths said 56mm of rain had fallen so far this year, the lowest of any three-month period in Auckland. "There's no question we're going to break the three-month dry record ... The next lowest was in 1974 for that same period and it had 68mm, so we've still got 12mm to go in one week." ...

Ms Griffiths said that the past two months were exceptionally dry even looking back at Auckland weather records dating from before 1959. "You would never have had, at this time of year or any time of year, two months in a row this dry." ...

Less than 10mm of rain fell in the Auckland region in February, 5-10 per cent of normal. Up until 9am yesterday there was 7mm of rain in March, about 9 per cent of normal.

Note that Georgina Griffiths is quoting figures for Akld Aero, rather than the Mangere figures used in her NIWA Climate Summaries for the main-centres. Mangere has recorded 13.0mm so far for March, or 72.4mm so far this year, but in the first 3 months of 1974 it only totalled 62.5mm, so no record-breaker for Mangere.

Also worth noting is that Jan's 1974 rainfall was 4.1mm for Akld Aero and 5.4mm for Mangere.

[spwill]

Also worth noting is that Jan's 1974 rainfall was 4.1mm for Akld Aero and 5.4mm for Mangere.

A La Nina period http://ggweather.com/enso/years.htm so I would guess North Auckland/Northland would have some rainfall out of easterly flows.

[Michael]

My ideal weather now,gale force N (NE NW ) then dead still after with pelting down with persistant Rain for several days.

[Manukau heads obs]

looking good for rain next week....low moving in from the NW, and becoming slow moving to the west of the upper NI
perfect for rain

at this stage in the models!

[NZstorm]

yes, I like the look of the gfs for next week with subtropical moisture and good instability moving onto the upper NI. Just hope it verifies. Still 7 days away.