Winter weather predictions.

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Twizel Dave
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Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Twizel Dave »

Hello chaps. Although it is a little early do you have any predictions for our weather in NZ this year? The reason I ask is because I phoned my wife in Twizel today and while chatting she mentioned that all the farmers around the place are predicting a very mild and dry summer for that part of the south.

What are your own views for the upcoming NZ winter? Twizel hasn't had anything like the weather we used to get in the old days and I know that some are forecasting doom and gloom simply because they think it's overdue! By God it used to get cold around Twizel and we saw a lot of snow dumped but not for many years now has it been like that.

So fire away with your own prognostications! :-)
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by melja »

I just want to know if its going to be good twizel this easter dave :wave:
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Nev »

Twizel Dave wrote:By God it used to get cold around Twizel and we saw a lot of snow dumped but not for many years now has it been like that.
Does the severe snowstorms in June 2006 and 2002 not count?

June, 2006 South Island - Earth Observatory MODIS/NASA image
NIWA - June 2006 Climate Summary

Parts of South Canterbury and North Otago recorded their lowest June mean temperatures in more than 50 years of record...

A severe, widespread heavy snowfall event occurred in Canterbury over the night of 11/12 June, especially in the south, snow settling to depths of 75-90cm around Fairlie and Burkes Pass, almost 40cm in Ashburton, and more than 20cm in Timaru, some remaining in some inland areas until the 27th. Extended power cuts occurred throughout much of South Canterbury, due to broken power lines and poles. The roofs of several buildings also collapsed, due to the weight of snow. Many motorists were stranded in the snow, and many roads closed...
NIWA - June 2002 Climate Summary

Major snowfall 17–18 June: Snowfall occurred in high country areas of Canterbury and Otago on 15 June and again between 17 and 21 June. However, heavy snow occurred throughout mid-Canterbury and inland Otago over 17–18 June, being 10–40 cm deep in many areas. Christchurch airport was closed due to snowfall settling over that period and SH1 was closed due to snow from Dunsandel to Temuka for the first time in 26 years, leaving hundreds of travellers stranded. In and near Ashburton, powerlines failed due to the weight of snow leaving more than 4000 homes without power. Hundreds of rural people were also affected, isolated in their houses. The Milford road and high-country pass roads were also affected. Snowfall lay 1 m deep on the 22nd and 23rd at Mt Cook Village.
spwill
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by spwill »

Niwa outlook for the start of winter http://www.niwa.co.nz/our-science/clima ... -june-2010
I think for a warmer than average winter over the SouthIsland you need an active westerly pattern.
Twizel hasn't had anything like the weather we used to get in the old days and I know that some are forecasting doom and gloom simply because they think it's overdue! By God it used to get cold around Twizel
No such thing as a mild winter in Twizel ;-)
Twizel Dave
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Twizel Dave »

Hello!
The snow that fell in 2002 and 2006 wasn't at all deep in most places and definitely not around Twizel! So Nev it doesn't compare with the deep snow we used to get when I was ayounger man around here. My memories of Twizel will always be of heavy snowfalling every week and piling up in an impressive way. These days all we ever seem to get is dismal bloody fog which lasts for weeks on end and drives everyone potty. At least when it snowed the kids could get out and play in it!

Ha spwill, funny! What I meant by mild was that it's quite mild next to the harsh winters we used to see in Twizel. Back then you were sure to get strings of days when it was minus 20 degrees or colder and whole winters which never warmed above freezing! Those were real winters but they seem to be a thing of the past now. Not complaining because I am getting too old for that sort of thing!

That weather page is very interesting and it confirms what the farmers are saying about warm temperature and low rain fall for east Otago, so it's certainly looking as if we will be without snow again this year.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by spwill »

More precipitation is what is needed for more snow in your part of the world ( Twizel) rather than a colder than normal winter.
The snow that fell in 2002 and 2006 wasn't at all deep in most places and definitely not around Twizel!
Was it not about 30cm for Twizel, 06 event.
RWood
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by RWood »

I think twizel dave is exaggerating more than a tad. There were still relatively "mild" winters in the past, and lengthy fogs are certainly not new. One could easily prove the point by digging out the winter means (from CliFlo) over the period of record at Twizel, Tekapo and Omarama, but I don't feel like expending the effort. That said of course, most winters over NZ (unqualified) in the last 15 years have been significantly milder than the/any 30-year average.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by melja »

I think dave was talking about snow and not temps and they have no connection and so cliflo will not give any indication of the snow falls over the years at all.
I would have to agree with him on the low snow falls, you only have to read books of the old days in farming the area to know the snow falls were much larger and longer lasting back then.
A book about bill hamilton farming at irishmans creek is a good insight to how the winters were down there or is that all bull sh#t too - me thinks not!
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by RWood »

melja wrote:I think dave was talking about snow and not temps and they have no connection and so cliflo will not give any indication of the snow falls over the years at all.
I would have to agree with him on the low snow falls, you only have to read books of the old days in farming the area to know the snow falls were much larger and longer lasting back then.
A book about bill hamilton farming at irishmans creek is a good insight to how the winters were down there or is that all bull sh#t too - me thinks not!
I'm referring to this: "...What I meant by mild was that it's quite mild next to the harsh winters we used to see in Twizel. Back then you were sure to get strings of days when it was minus 20 degrees or colder and whole winters which never warmed above freezing!". One was not "sure" of such winters, certainly not back as far as the 50s, anyway. Even before then one could find strong counterexamples.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by NZstorm »

2006 wasn't at all deep in most places and definitely not around Twizel!
It certainly looked deep in the photos and on TV. The storm had its origins in the North Tasman Sea. The heavy warm advective snowfalls wouldn't be correlated to long term temperature trends.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by spwill »

Niwa report on the 06 snow storm http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publicat ... 06-07-04-1
30 to 60cm snowfall across Mackenzie basin by the looks.
Twizel Dave
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Twizel Dave »

Gentlemen, I quote from that document : "Inland areas: The area around Fairlie and Burkes Pass had similar snow depths to the 1973 storm, while areas further west into the McKenzie Basin had significantly less snow than most previous notable snow storms with only 50cm being recorded at the Hermitage, as opposed to over 100cm in 2002, 1973, and 1967."

Now please bear in mind that the Hermitage is well into the Alps area! They always get more snow than the rest of this part of the country. My recollection is that we had much less than a foot of snow in our driveways in Twizel. Back when I was just a lad the so called snow storm of 2006 would barely have passed muster as a very typical wintry fall!

It has been such a long time since we have seen any real snow falls that even the paltry snow of 2006 seemed large to some people! I wonder though if the prolonged power outage which occurred at the time may have made it seem much worse than it really was? Many people shivered in unheated homes for days until the electricity was reconnected.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Myself »

Twizel Dave wrote:<Twizelspeak>
Twizel.
What is it about that place that leads its citzens into such hyperbole.
Ladies and Gentlmen of the MacKenzie Country. You do not live in Russia. You do not live in Canada. You do not live in Europe. You have a moderate climate that is extreme by NZ standards.
But, no, that cannot be the truth. In summer, it's always 40C. In winter, it's always -20C. And the weathermen conspire to keep this a secret from the country, nay, The World! This sort of nonsense passes as fact amongst Twizelites.

"Back then you were sure to get strings of days when it was minus 20 degrees or colder and whole winters which never warmed above freezing!"

Well what can you say about this? It's such rubbish. 3 months never above freezing? In New Zealand. Dammit, where do people get this stuff. You are lucky to get a week of "ice days" anywhere in NZ.

Across the MacKenzie in general, what is the average high in summer? About 22C. In winter? About 6C. Even London can manage a range like that, year on year.
I'd put reasonable money on betting that the winter much of the UK has just experienced would be unmatched by NZ in living memory. Especially what the Scots endured.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I think, personally, overall, that the winter will be a mild one, but there could be a few convective snow events, especially as we did not get much snow here last winter.
There will be the usual amount of frosts and the dull boring overcast days with the maximum temperature around the 5C mark, but then nothing much exceptional other than that.
I think May could be quite a thunderous month with a few thunderstorms around the country from rogue low pressure systems, especially in western areas with overflows over the Southern Alps.
When the anticyclones don't domimate, the low pressure systems should give us wintery outbursts.

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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I am thinking Canterbury,Otago might see a big snowfall event this winter beating or equal to the 1992 snow event which hit Christchurch with over 30cm.
Reason i say this is with the seasons out of kilter now and the fact we are having our summer now when we should be into cooler temperatures.
Also the UK has just had a record breaking cold winter with lots of good snowfalls and still is, we tend to follow what they get for example last year they had a damp cooler summer and we seemed to follow a simular pattern.
Just my thoughts and its not just me who has said a simular thing for this winter.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

this whole twizel used to be colder (people tend to only remember the worst weather and not the average conditions in between) than it is now haa been done to death before many times on this forum and I am surprised to see it has come up yet again

just my opinion
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by RWood »

Myself wrote:
Twizel Dave wrote:<Twizelspeak>
...
"Back then you were sure to get strings of days when it was minus 20 degrees or colder and whole winters which never warmed above freezing!"

Well what can you say about this? It's such rubbish. 3 months never above freezing? In New Zealand. Dammit, where do people get this stuff. You are lucky to get a week of "ice days" anywhere in NZ.

Across the MacKenzie in general, what is the average high in summer? About 22C. In winter? About 6C. Even London can manage a range like that, year on year.
I'd put reasonable money on betting that the winter much of the UK has just experienced would be unmatched by NZ in living memory. Especially what the Scots endured.
I agree with you fully Myself. Since I started getting interested in weather at the age of 8, I have been listening to what one could politely call "hyperbole" - the older boy who lived next door told me that a place on the road to Queenstown (from Invercargill) had a recent temperature of 120F. I did not believe him, but said nothing.

A recent version on another weather forum had someone claiming a month of frost/fog at Wanaka with "no sun". Nonsense! The worst Alexandra has ever managed - and it is as bad as anywhere for winter fogs - even with the hills restricting the recordable sunshine, was 50 hours, comfortably over 20% of the recordable amount.

One succinct point I like to put to those who think any part of NZ is "continental" by world standards - Venice has a higher midsummer mean temperature than Sydney {let alone anywhere in NZ!}, and a lower midwinter one than Invercargill.
Last edited by RWood on Fri 02/04/2010 10:35, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by RWood »

Supplement on Mackenzie averages:

Looking at a variety of stations and averages periods (1941-70 to 1971-2000), one finds the July average daily max. values span only a range of 5.5C (Pukaki, Glentanner, 1941-70) to 6.7C (Tara Hills, Omarama, 1971-2000). The average July minima ranged from -1.5C (Glentanner, 1941-70) to -4.3C (Twizel, 1951-80: the value for 1971-2000 was -3.9C).

Average maxima in February ranged from 21.6C to 23.5C.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by RWood »

Jasestorm wrote:...Also the UK has just had a record breaking cold winter with lots of good snowfalls and still is, we tend to follow what they get for example last year they had a damp cooler summer and we seemed to follow a simular pattern...

Time that one was put to bed forever too!
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by tich »

What's most likely, is that like last winter (and many others before that), the season will vary alot. June 2009 was colder than normal, but August was the warmest in record for NZ.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Its to far out to predict what will happen this winter ive heard people predict hard winters time and time again and very rearly do they get it right. But we are overdue for some decent snow.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Nev wrote:Snowfall lay 1 m deep on the 22nd and 23rd at Mt Cook Village.
CONGRATS Nev on your 1000th POST!!!!! =D> =D> =D> \:D/ \:D/ \:D/
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Well i am hoping for a good dump of snow this winter for sure! as always to boot..
Maybe we will see a good snow storm in the city and maybe we wont see anything, but heres hoping.
Agree with you John there, typical to have those cold winter days with dull and overcast and maximum of 5c as you say.
I am going down to queenstown hopefully in july with leighton and few others for a week so hoping to catch a nice polar outbreak then.
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Re: Winter weather predictions.

Unread post by Twizel Dave »

It seems very odd to me that some of the ruder people here are so ready to criticise me and my memory even though I have lived around Twizel for a long time and they haven't! How would you feel if I claimed your experiences and memories of your own area were wrong? You'd think I was being very impolite and you'd be right about that!

There were many times in the past when the weather if Twizel was ferocious. We used to put bottles of milk into the fridge to stop them freezing! That was a regular sort of thing a long time ago, many around here share the same memories, but the thing of it is that we have not had to do such things in recent years. Or are you going to claim that isn't right as well?

Good night chaps.
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