Temperatures are looking a little cool for my likingNZstorm wrote:Thunderstorms look possible over the west and upper North Island late Friday/early Saturday as a trough/SW change moves through. The trough brings ok moisture (dewpoints 15C) with cooling air aloft (500mb-20C). A little bit of speed shear there too with mid to upper level flow 50kts+ which will also favour cb development along the front. GFS is forecasting between 10-15mm with the front in the west.
It seems If any Cbs pop up they will be the fibrous (cold topped variety) and they will struggle to put out any lightning (based on that data anyway)
I really hope the actual is different.... but I am not holding my breath.