MetService Forecasts

[Manukau heads obs]

why does everyone on this forum give M/S such a hard time?
no wonder they never post here anymore (shame), its just become a M/S bashing ground

low risk is appropriate considering the showers are small in coverage and confined to the kaimai ranges and other ranges
i.e they are not widespread

[tgsnoopy]

Huh, they updated their forecast again to show low risk in the area experiencing a pretty good looking thunderstorm at the time.

Decent storm between Tirau/Tokoroa

Darn poor forecasting Metservice, they show a low risk

I stand by my comment. It's my opinion and I'm quite entitled to have one.

I note that their website is still very unfriendly to anyone on expensive and/or slow connections... Not exactly listening to the people of NZ are they.

I can't say I've noticed them posting to any extent previously, maybe they should look at posting more frequently and maybe we would cut them more slack.

In any case when the odd Metservice individual has posted, I can't say I've ever seen any of them chastised etc, quite the opposite really, I for one have really appreciated their comments, shame they aren't more often.

As for it being a Metservice bashing ground... Where? Are we looking at the same forum?

[RWood]

There are frequent complaints about M/S forecast maximum temperatures for Christchurch and Canterbury, so Manukau Heads Observer is certainly right about that aspect. Personally, I'd be rather bored if our local forecasts were too perfect - there would be nothing left to one's own local knowledge and understanding. As it is, I find the forecasts pretty good for my area.

[Richard]

Unlike say Akld, I'd imagine Canterbury would probably be one the hardest places to accurately forecast T-maxs, as it often boils down to the timing of fronts/wind-changes etc on the day.

exactly
not an easy place to forecast the days max temp, as small changes in the variables can make a big difference

I would not get too hung up on it

Having good level of local knowledge of Canterbury's climate helps,but due to M/S centralization this i feel this is somewhat lacking.

Luckily the 120km winds didn't arrive here today,what little wind did blow was coming from the wrong direction to have been as bad as what was forecasted

[tgsnoopy]

It seems to be different opinions in all of this too.

Whilst I recall comments on the maximum temperature forecasts and some concern/comment on how they generate them, I don't recall anyone bashing them, more interest in the technique they used to create them and concern they seemed to be inaccurate forecasts.

Maybe I'm just looking too much in the cup half full mode.

[spwill]

Forecasts are given for regions, often there is going to be weather variations within a given region, eg Auckland is not just Auckland City, it starts up at Kaipara/Wellsford and runs down to Pukekohe/Hanua and includes the Gulf Islands.

[melja]

I cant agree on not getting hung up on the temp forcasting, it whould be the most important thing to 99% of the general public.
The core job that M/S do for most people is generate the simple town forcasts that say how hot or cold its going to be and rain or sun and if they cant get that right then they arnt serving the majority of the public.

The differance between 14C and 25C is cold and hot.

[Manukau heads obs]

apply your own micro climate knowledge to the forecast,i.e fine tune it yourself
i.e for Canty in a NWer it could be warmer or colder than expected and so take that into cosideration

[03Stormchaser]

why does everyone on this forum give M/S such a hard time?
no wonder they never post here anymore (shame), its just become a M/S bashing ground

I would have thought a weather forum was the best place to question a MS forecasts?? If they choose not to answer any questions I guess its there decision, I do wish we could grill every now and again!! I can think of 3 thunderstorm forecasts for Canterbury that were so far off the mark this season, I got pretty worked up on here. If some of there forecasters have a problem understanding Canterbury then we should be on there back about it!!

*sorry for my OT rant

[spwill]

how hot or cold its going to be

With the likes of Canterbury there is the problem of the Fohn NW being unreliable for some parts and the cold sea temps down there can be a source for cold air .

Active west of the NI this evening

[Manukau heads obs]

personally I never look at the forecast max/min temperature for my location as I have a pretty good knowledge of what its going to be from my own forecasting (going on local knowledge/historical experiences etc)

hopefully you canty guys can forecast the next days or on the day max/min pretty well
and if you can, using local knowledge and historical experiences, then that is what will be missing for M/S: local knowledge to apply to the computer generated forecast (maybe they are relying on a computer generated model too much and more local knowledge needs to be applied?)

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, and thats the other thing
sometimes inland canty only gets the fohn NW wind (and so will be closer to the forecasted temp), and it does not make it to the CHCH city (which instead gets the colder NE wind)
what conditions make that happen is the key...and knowing when its going to or not...etc
maybe they need more recording stations in Canty...to know how strong and how far inland the Nwer is blowing, and if the NW change is advancing against that or not

[Tornado Tim]

Ok this is going way OT, LOL (can a mod split this)
But I feel like i need to post about this, hahaha

I agree with Richards Comments about them being too "centralized" they should have offices all around NZ as the meteorologists will be locals as well and they will get used to the type of climate different places have, therefor when it comes to forecasting to the public they will give out a more accurate forecast.

I dont think the BOM in Aus have 1 big huge office to predict the whole of Australia, it would be stupid if they did.

[Nev]

Ok I've split this thread from the Deep Subtropical Low 12-18th May!!! thread.

Nothing wrong with a bit of constructive criticism, but lets keep it civil please.

[tgsnoopy]

Nothing wrong with a bit of constructive criticism, but lets keep it civil please.

Umm, Nev perhaps you could point out what you are referring to? I'm having trouble locating anything I think needs a comment of that nature.

[David]

apply your own micro climate knowledge to the forecast,i.e fine tune it yourself
i.e for Canty in a NWer it could be warmer or colder than expected and so take that into cosideration

That might be fine for us on this forum and for other weather enthusiasts, but most of the population don't really have a 'micro climate knowledge'...

[Nev]

Nothing wrong with a bit of constructive criticism, but lets keep it civil please.

Umm, Nev perhaps you could point out what you are referring to? I'm having trouble locating anything I think needs a comment of that nature.

Example

[tgsnoopy]

Umm, Nev perhaps you could point out what you are referring to? I'm having trouble locating anything I think needs a comment of that nature.

Example

Then please put that comment in that thread, not in here where so far it has not been warranted.

[melja]

apply your own micro climate knowledge to the forecast,i.e fine tune it yourself
i.e for Canty in a NWer it could be warmer or colder than expected and so take that into cosideration

That might be fine for us on this forum and for other weather enthusiasts, but most of the population don't really have a 'micro climate knowledge'...

Very good point
Edit: I see its allready 8C in chch with the low tonight forcasted to be 10C

[sthguy]

Tv3 overnight lows in the south tonight:

Dn 7
Alex 4
Queenstown 2
Gore 2
Invercargill's 1C.

Low's below 5 very unlikely even in Lx given the cloudy wet SE flow - Invercargill a ridiculous prediction given a cloudy wet night with SE winds and the 6pm temp at 9.5C {from Metservice obs site}

[Andy]

Over night low for Alex was 7.2.

[NZstorm]

I would say there was a corruption in the system that put old forecasts in. I don't think these predictions would have been intentional.

[sthguy]

No oversight. They have Ingill at 1 again tomorrow night.

[Richard]

but i see Invercargill on 8C on the M/S site

[sthguy]

http://metservice.com/towns-cities/invercargill
10:15pm 25th

Tomorrow
26 May
Max 11°C
MIN 1°C
Periods of rain. Gusty southerlies.

1°C ? !!!