MetService Forecasts

[NZstorm]

No oversight. They have Ingill at 1 again tomorrow night.

It's proof these forecasts are machine generated and not necessarily viewed by a forecaster.

[melja]

Yes to much use of the computer these days, and no local input like in the past.

[Andrew Massie]

I would have thought a weather forum was the best place to question a MS forecasts?? If they choose not to answer any questions I guess its there decision, I do wish we could grill every now and again!! I can think of 3 thunderstorm forecasts for Canterbury that were so far off the mark this season, I got pretty worked up on here. If some of there forecasters have a problem understanding Canterbury then we should be on there back about it!!

*sorry for my OT rant

You should rather be sorry for your poor use of their/there/they're !!!!

[RWood]

I would have thought a weather forum was the best place to question a MS forecasts?? If they choose not to answer any questions I guess its there decision, I do wish we could grill every now and again!! I can think of 3 thunderstorm forecasts for Canterbury that were so far off the mark this season, I got pretty worked up on here. If some of there forecasters have a problem understanding Canterbury then we should be on there back about it!!

*sorry for my OT rant

You should rather be sorry for your poor use of their/there/they're !!!!

More forecaster-bashing.

Judging by the spelling and sentence construction I see on this forum (and others), I could make some useful money if a few people were prepared to pay for lessons.

[melja]

Oh and that makes us all dumb then does it? i bow to your superiority!

[RWood]

Oh and that makes us all dumb then does it? i bow to your superiority!

I didn't say that. I'm simply an advocate of a higher standard of English usage than that commonly encountered nowadays.

[Nev]

Ok folks, this thread's gotten completely OT. Perhaps it would be more helpful to start a thread on Spelling and Gramma Grammar, in a more positive and light-hearted way .


Re the aforementioned forecasted overnight T-min for Invercargill, yesterday M/S revised that to 3C ... actual recorded temp this morn was 2.8C at Invercargill Aero.

[Richard]

I wonder how much longer its going to take before the M/S realizes that Alexandra is now in winter,they've been forecasting highs of 10's and 11's for days now its only been getting to 3's and 4's,tomorrow again they have 11

[melja]

Clear sky and no wind in chch oh and its june and they have a low of 3C for us but wait its 1.8C allready.
Computers cant learn but the ones that use them can - one day

[jamie]

Thinking the same for here melja. 4.7 so already smashed the 7 MS has for hamilton.

[melja]

I see chch on -2C at 6am.

[Michael]

theres a slight breeze here so 7 was about right here.

[Razor]

I know some poeople here think it churlish to attack the metservice, but some of the erroneous detail that gets on their website these days is so poor that it is appalling.

As per the above cited examples re Alexandra, Invercargill, etc. Is it too hard to have someone with a "weathered" eye to even proof read the site?

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Metservice says 0.2mm last hour for Christchurch putting us as wettest in the last hour lol. yet not a cloud in the sky! Must be the moisture from the frost or something..

[Manukau heads obs]

most likely dew building up enough in the rain gauge to form big enough drops to fall down the sides of the rain gauge

[RWood]

most likely dew building up enough in the rain gauge to form big enough drops to fall down the sides of the rain gauge

One of the main reasons I think rain day counts based on a threshold of 0.2mm are not all that useful. 0.5mm, or even the "wet day" count for 1mm or more are more meaningful IMO.

[Richard]

I know some poeople here think it churlish to attack the metservice, but some of the erroneous detail that gets on their website these days is so poor that it is appalling.

As per the above cited examples re Alexandra, Invercargill, etc. Is it too hard to have someone with a "weathered" eye to even proof read the site?

I agree Razor, after all that's what they are payed to do.

[Storm Struck]

Sometimes i do have to wonder where MS get some of thier forecasting ideas from, sometimes i think even a kindergarten kid could do better.
I cant remember the so many things i have come across that they have put up and it makes no sense at all.
Although i do remember the other day in the forecast that comes up for the regions had Canterbury Otago and Southland for snow possible to low levels on Monday.
But when i went into the UPDATED! rural forecast which is i might add for the Plains and Foothills, there was no mention of snow for the Canterbury region only for Otago.

[tgsnoopy]

Sometimes i do have to wonder where MS get some of their forecasting ideas from, sometimes i think even a kindergarten kid could do better.

Unfortunately forecasting isn't an exact science. Whilst one model might be good on one occasion and another lousy, the next scenario might be the opposite.

So long as they do not rely on just one model and keep an open mind and try to apply local knowledge were applicable then I guess that's all we can ask of them.

I know, I too get frustrated when it feels like they are changing a forecast close to the actual event to suit the actual conditions as they unfold. Reality is, if they didn't in a severe thunderstorm type scenario then we would be even more frustrated with them.

(Someone recently had a real crack at me in PM and I must admit it got me thinking)

[Razor]

I don't get frustrated with changing forecasts as events get closer- its the nature of the beast.

What rankles me is the shocking inconsistencies that seem to occur regulalry between things like rural forecasts and mountain forcasts (as one example), which here in the South Island in many areas can be one and the same.

There are too many cases of conflicting forecasts for the same scenario- and thats where I see the metservice website of suffering from a terrible case of laziness

[Richard]

I don't get frustrated with changing forecasts as events get closer- its the nature of the beast.

What rankles me is the shocking inconsistencies that seem to occur regulalry between things like rural forecasts and mountain forcasts (as one example), which here in the South Island in many areas can be one and the same.

There are too many cases of conflicting forecasts for the same scenario- and thats where I see the metservice website of suffering from a terrible case of laziness

You and a few others including myself may also see it as laziness but to the M/S they will only cover themselves by saying that they work within a limited budget.
But if only they could somehow use more local knowledge in there forecasts,they then would become a hell of lot more accurate.

[RWood]

I don't get frustrated with changing forecasts as events get closer- its the nature of the beast.

What rankles me is the shocking inconsistencies that seem to occur regulalry between things like rural forecasts and mountain forcasts (as one example), which here in the South Island in many areas can be one and the same.

There are too many cases of conflicting forecasts for the same scenario- and thats where I see the metservice website of suffering from a terrible case of laziness

You and a few others including myself may also see it as laziness but to the M/S they will only cover themselves by saying that they work within a limited budget.
But if only they could somehow use more local knowledge in there forecasts,they then would become a hell of lot more accurate.

They are required to be a profitable business. Blame the neo-liberal economics that led to that.

[Michael]

It can only get worse before better,it be another SOE they will possibly sell

They are required to be a profitable business. Blame the neo-liberal economics that led to that.

[Lukemyster]

Hehe, and i never thought it would reach 15C today in Christchurch. Metservice have now dropped it down to 9

[Richard]

and a over night low of 8,what was it in the end??,1??