North Island Low - May 20-21

[DT-NZ]

Have just read M/S deepening low forecast issued @ 2:58pm today, I've not done one of these posts before ( so, take it easy on me ok!!) however, having alittle confidence this evening - I thought I would atleast give it go and start one, so here go.

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... er-outlook

[drew]

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND AUCKLAND BAY OF PLENTY GISBORNE HAWKES BAY

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 2113hrs 19-May-2010

DEEPENING LOW EXPECTED TO BRING A SPELL OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOUTHEAST GALES OVER NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND ON THURSDAY AND GISBORNE AND PARTS OF HAWKES BAY NORTH OF NAPIER ON FRIDAY

A spell of heavy rain is expected as far south as Whangarei from Thursday afternoon to early Friday morning and the watch has been upgraded to a warning.

This band of heavy rain should move over north Auckland, the Hauraki Gulf Islands, Coromandel Peninsula and eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty and the north of the Gisborne region on Thursday night and Friday morning, and further south in Gisborne and the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay later on Friday.
MetService will maintain a watch for these areas and advise people to keep up to date with weather forecasts as streams and rivers could rise quickly.

There will probably be a spell of south to southeast gales as the rain band moves over these areas. Depending on the depth and speed of the low winds could briefly reach severe gale about exposed hill tops and some headlands but at this stage are not expected to be widespread. However, forecasters will keep watch in the meantime.

A small slow moving low off the Wairarapa coast is starting fill and rain has eased. The watch for Wellington and Wairarapa is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9am Thursday 20th May 2010...

Mod Edit: Tided up above (titles and copy originally posted as one continuous paragraph).

[Storm Struck]

Might want to extend that date DTNZ as once it moves further south into next week its looking very rough from Gisbourne to atleast North Otago.
If it pulls through looks like some juicy rainfall totals for here and good strong winds too from the SE.

[Tornado Tim]

There are actually 2 lows, the one coming later on is the 1 that it seems will pack the "punch" it seems.

[Nev]

Yes, I think we're talking about 2 separate events here, both of subtropical origin (plus a minor south Tasman low affecting Coasters over the weekend).

As discussed in the General May Weather thread, next week's low is shaping up to be a real doozy , which should ultimately warrant another thread. In the meantime, I've changed the title of this thread for today and tomorrow's relatively brief event (see Severe Weather Watch posted above).

[Manukau heads obs]

wow, this first low has taken shape quickly over night, as the models suggested, with rain moving into the far north already
fog here again but the easterly wind has got up now

next weeks looks has been cranked up another notch on gfs
will be a damaging system!

[DT-NZ]

Yes, I think we're talking about 2 separate events here, both of subtropical origin (plus a minor south Tasman low affecting Coasters over the weekend).

As discussed in the General May Weather thread, next week's low is shaping up to be a real doozy , which should ultimately warrant another thread. In the meantime, I've changed the title of this thread for today and tomorrow's relatively brief event (see Severe Weather Watch posted above).

Morning Nev

I was thinking about this after I read TT's post last evening re: 2 separate lows and it occurred to me that next week's low would warrant a thread ultimately of its own, however, I did not know the how to go about creating a new topic and thread ie; dates etc for next week's low.


Morning skies overhead at the moment all thanks to the rusty anchor webcam

http://www.rustyanchor.co.nz/index.aspx?id=13

Only light spits here at the moment no wind as yet... currently 14 C out.

[DT-NZ]

Ok I'll keep this thread alive with reports from here during the re: this brief low and will end reports @ midnight tonight,
also have just got of the phone from Hukerenui and they are keeping a watchful eye on the second low next week.

Of course being that I am still new to learning weather which I do enjoy doing so much I welcome today's opportunity to learn and build on my confidence re: weather reporting, as I do take this seriously and recognize also the importance of accurate observing and reports.

Light rain falling with 2.5mm in gauge since my last post - currently 13.7 out - diffinately feels like winter today.

[DT-NZ]

Steady mdderate rain now falling - the winds have increased slightly.

[Nev]

Not sure why you'd want to 'end reports @ midnight tonight' DT. MetService are expecting 70-90mm near the eastern hills of Northland this arvo and early Friday morning. Winds are also expected to rise to gale for a time in exposed places, as they turn more SW early tomorrow morn.

I see Kerikeri-Weather has already had 6mm this morn.

[DT-NZ]

Hi Nev

Apologies in my rush this morning I entered the wrong time details am now correcting time to midnight tommorrow.

I have been out for the most part of the day and arrived back approx 1-1/2hrs ago - will upload soon a few pics and links to video clips taken of todays low.

17mm in raingauge since my last post.

[DT-NZ]

You will need to turn the sound off as I had the camera out the window whilst I was recording this *bubbly laughter*

Travelling north east alongside statehighway 10 this afternoon at 15:39hrs with stormy skies overhead.

[DT-NZ]

few snaps of todays low.

[DT-NZ]

Aprox 3mins ago I did feel a slight pressure (plugging) change in my RE (thought I would make a note of this).

[DT-NZ]

Am I dedicated or what - you bet

*Yawns*

Ok the moderate rain that we had up here for approx the past hour has finally stopped - thankfully no wind, yet that is, of course and recieved another 6mm from it bringing the rain total thus far to 23mm.

I have been at this comp on and off quietly plodding away uploading video's taken today of todays low honestly The Teenager only this evening said that it is not normal to have a mother who lives, breath's weather so much as I do (DT frowns).



Right, I'm logging off... yawns again!!!

[David]

Rain has been very light here so far, only totaling 6mm. Max rate only 2.6mm/hr...

[rawdon]

Your teenager should be proud of you!!! Mine turns all the lights out at night when we have a thunderstorm so we can observe... but I am mad also..
All the best
Steve
Upper Hutt...

[Manukau heads obs]

5:30am here
pouring down!
38mm so far!
the drought is over!
rain radar shows we are stuck under a front wrapping into the low in the outer hauraki gulf
southerly wind here now...

24mm in Waiuku at same time, 28mm at Ricky's in the city, and only 12mm in Drury (due to being away from this wrap around front),25mm or so at David's place in Howick
only 8mm in Matangi south Waikato (rain bands still to move down there)
(those last two stations are not using the NZ standard of 9am rain reset)
41mm at Mangaiwai heads

[Michael]

War zone here,time to pour roundup down the trees making them go to permanent winter....

[Vertigo]

very stormy indeed this morning, and has been all night - wind driven rain into my windows and roof, absolutely lovely. going to have to step outside to head to work soon....

[Tornado Tim]

No wind driven rain here, Just the occasional gust up to 30km/hr

[Manukau heads obs]

gusting to 38kts (74kmh) here now, and increasing
and still raining
46mm now!
rain radar shows its slow moving this low at the moment!

[David]

The rain mostly stopped here by 4am, still waiting for the windy weather to arrive here

[Brassnz]

Just checked the rain gauge and nearly fell over - 73mm in last 24hrs. Still raining heavily here, and has been for several hours.

[Manukau heads obs]

55mm here now!
the rain bands to the NW of you should move SE onto you David, slowly...