Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 23-27

[Philip Duncan]

I still dont know why Waikato hasnt got a warning, yet they give 1 out for Taupo? hmmm

I think it's because the heaviest rain will be east of the Kaimais. Im even doubtful if Auckland will see as much rain in the 24 hours from tonight as we did last Thurs/Fri.

[jamie]

I still dont know why Waikato hasnt got a warning, yet they give 1 out for Taupo? hmmm

I dont see us needing a warning Tim. I think we are only going to get at most 60mm out of this. Taupo is much much higher and mountainous than we are in the Waikato. As for the winds it is only going to be Te Aroha that has the possibility of strong winds and as the models are changing this is looking less and less likely.

[DT-NZ]

Long splatty rain now... though not heavy here.

[Philip Duncan]

"Chubby Rain" DT-NZ

[tgsnoopy]

I'm getting more and more concerned about this event. It looks too much like the May 05 event that seriously flooded us when it went stationary mixing warm moist air with cooler air and really dumping.

The council has done a lot of work on diverting water as I have too, not so much diverting though (I cut the top off the retaining wall below us at ground level instead of between 75 and 160mm above).

A lot of the water that we copped was from a stormwater manhole beside us that popped off and let a heck of a flow through from the street about 5m high and 20m away. It's now bolted closed. The upstream fence that collapsed and let a huge surge through, now has gaps in the bottom and holes in it.

Fingers crossed. In any case I intend to stay home, just in case.

[MoorfNZ]

Looks like us Cantabrians are in for a real soaking over the next day or so...

"The most significant rainfall with this event is likely to be in Canterbury south of the Waimakariri River and north Otago, with periods of heavy rain and southeast gales from Monday morning through to Tuesday. Expect 100 to 150mm of rain in these areas, although North Otago and the Canterbury foothills south of about the Rangitata River may recieve as much as 250mm up to midnight Tuesday. Heavy rain is also possible for Canterbury north of the Waimakariri River and Marlborough and there is a SEVERE WEATHER WATCH in place for these areas."

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... r-warnings

Should make for some great gorge swells down at the Waimak!

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Wow. Blue Skies forecast at the moment is very rear for here. I havent seen them have a 'NB' in their forecast like they have here. See below.

Source= Blue Skies

"Cloudy today with some drizzle patches or light rain developing during the afternoon, then more persistent rain tonight. Light southwesterly winds. Cloudy tomorrow with periods of rain, heavy for a time during the afternoon and evening. Cold southerlies freshening. Snow to 700m.NB � current computer model predictions suggest at least 150mm falling over Canterbury in the next 6-7 days, briefly heavy at times on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Saturday, and with significant snow accumulations above 5-700m.Heavy rain on Tuesday, easing slowly later on Wednesday. Falls of 60-80mm likely over 48 hours. Snow above 700m. Cold, with fresh to strong gusty southerly winds.More periods of rain on Thursday and Friday; snow to 500m. Fresh cold southerlies.A brief period of heavy rain on Saturday, easing later in the day. Snow to 500m. Cold southerlies easing.Mostly cloudy from next Sunday to Tuesday with a few showers or drizzle patches at times; cold, with moderate northeasterly winds."

[Storm Struck]

Getting some light rain here now from a sweep of the south Tasman low as it goes up to meet the the other low in the north.
So any precipitation now will be added onto and when the heavy falls start, although wont be much beforehand every mil counts.
Watch the Avon and Heathcote rivers if you are near them as i am sure they will burst, be great to get some photo's up of this event.
Also i am thinking there might be some big southerly gales on Wednesday as the low spins off near Wellington .

[carrot]

I have an Avon River boundary, even when we had about 8mm last week in a day the stream rose quite high. If it gets really high I'll try get some pics.

[TonyT]

Wow. Blue Skies forecast at the moment is very rear for here. ."

I really hope you mean rare. Otherwise people will start calling it a bummer of a forecast...

I have put in a few NBs over the years, but not many. When the weather forecaster puts his tractor away in the shed then you know something's up, meteorologically speaking.

One things for sure, no matter what happens, with all the extra info Met Service and ourselves have put out in the last few days nobody can claim they weren't warned, which is a credit to the state of computer modelling these days.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

"I really hope you mean rare. Otherwise people will start calling it a bummer of a forecast... "

Yes, your quite right. Correction = RARE!

I see the CHCH radar is down

[kaimaikid]

All I need now is a decent weather station to record this event....

Anyone ???

p.s. my website is updated

[melja]

Why dont we make a south island and north island topic for this system? makes it easy rather than troll through the pages that we will most likely get

[David]

Going by the metservice 7 day outlook it looks like low after low moving towards NZ!

[DT-NZ]

I'm getting more and more concerned about this event. It looks too much like the May 05 event that seriously flooded us when it went stationary mixing warm moist air with cooler air and really dumping.

Me too the base and height of these clouds that moved through here this evening were ominous... *gulp* stay safe Snoopy - everyone this evening.

[DT-NZ]

"Chubby Rain" DT-NZ

7mm so far.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

That light band through North Canterbury is moving very very slowly southwards, still no rain here yet, should be falling within next hour or so

[melja]

Light rain here in rangiora since 3pm.

[jamie]

i see Cape Reinga has been gusting over 90km/h since 4pm.

have had 7mm so far today.

[Chris Raine]

Advising farmers to shift stock and talking to people who live close to rivers to beware of rising water levels has been the task today.It appears Waimate and Waitaki districts will bear the brunt of this event according to Met Service . Computer models indicate the rivers in the district will be significantly affected with the amount of rain forecasted to fall.Cleaned the raingauges today , there are three of them on the property , one electronic and two manual.

[Andy]

Advising farmers to shift stock and talking to people who live close to rivers to beware of rising water levels has been the task today.It appears Waimate and Waitaki districts will bear the brunt of this event according to Met Service . Computer models indicate the rivers in the district will be significantly affected with the amount of rain forecasted to fall.Cleaned the raingauges today , there are three of them on the property , one electronic and two manual.

Is the ground still dry?, I drove through to Waimate about a month ago an it was dry as Central Otago.

[KiwiWeather]

Portable WX gauge has just kicked in (both cats have come inside and wanting to have wet wipes ie: ceremonial drying of wet fur with ceremonial paper towels). However, the rain is not steady (as yet).

[DT-NZ]

i see Cape Reinga has been gusting over 90km/h since 4pm.

Have only started to have the stronger gusts over the past hour or so - had some strong gusts come through about 10 mins ago - felt pressure in ear change, a few sec's later wham - wind slams into the front of the windows. Take care.

Cape Karikari (wind only)
at 9:00pm Sunday 23 May 2010
Wind Speed: 61km/h
Wind Direction: NE
Humidity:

[jamie]

10mm now and rain only getting louder on the roof. not sure how long it will last though. radar showing it is a bit patchy after this.

On a side note i am just about to tick over 300mm for the year. Pretty pathetic total when you consider 146mm fell in January and 80mm of that fell in one day.

[DT-NZ]

Had a couple of strong gusts about 10mins ago, could hear the wind coming sounded liked a freight train - then wham - windows creaking - house is whistling. Logging off, *yawns*.