Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 23-27

[Manukau heads obs]

thundery rain refers to how heavy it is....i.e will not mean there has to be thunder...I would think

[spwill]

Perhaps there will be a few strikes over the likes of the Kaikoras( high Mnts) in the strong moist onshore flow, see how the models develop.

[Manukau heads obs]

from the M/S severe outlook:

This is likely to be a significant weather event for the country, and people are advised to keep up to date with the latest weather forecasts.

[Richard]

I see there are warnings of gale force SE winds for the East Coast of the South Island and down the west as well ,during weather events like what appears to be coming, quite a number of West Coast valleys have been,and will be hammered again if this event does eventuate.But on the eastern side it will be the opposite to when say a very strong westerly airstream is crossing the island, the West Coast will experience little wind as the lifts over the mountains but picks up speed on the east as the well known NW er
On the eastern side it doesn't matter if its a NE,E or SE,they are onshore winds and are blocked by the Southern Alps,these winds have and will NEVER will be gale force,unless maybe around Banks Peninsular.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

thundery rain refers to how heavy it is....i.e will not mean there has to be thunder...I would think

I've always thought of thundery rain in that sense, I don't know what MetService's explanation of 'thundery rain' is, say, as opposed to 'rain with thunderstorms'.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Storm Struck]

Yeah the winds generally from the E-SE even NE quarter dont tend to be gale force here most the time and with the big lows of the past which have taken simular routes.
But interesting in some of the latest models bringing the low further south again, overnight wednesday and into early Thursday gale force southerlies could develope.
Just been slowly making a new weather website which you can view here.
http://canterburynzweather.weebly.com/

[Manukau heads obs]

CHCH is much further away from the alps though for the alps to affect the onshore flow compared to the West coast towns for their onshore flow

Dunedin has had gale onshore winds before...

[melja]

Well done with the website

[Manukau heads obs]

re new web site, maybe reconsider the colours ?
a bit hard to read the text of the forecast due to the colour choice's?


I see the latest GFS has cranked the low up yet another notch and has is passing over the auckland area!!!!
batten down the hatches!
also I see that the new low forming in the north tasman is going to combine with the low now developing in the south tasman....hence the explosive deepening....a warm originated low combining with a cold originated low!

[Tornado Tim]

Its is a good time tomorrow if you are a PWS owner to check and or clear your rain gauge b4 the "beast" hits

[Richard]

CHCH is much further away from the alps though for the alps to affect the onshore flow compared to the West coast towns for their onshore flow

Dunedin has had gale onshore winds before...

I agree but its the areas on the coastal fringes are more exposed,also you will find its more the onshore winds that blow near to parallel to the coast line,eg NE and Southerly,same on the West Coast ,its the Northerly and SW that are the strong winds

[Richard]

re new web site, maybe reconsider the colours ?
a bit hard to read the text of the forecast due to the colour choice's?
;

Yes i agree,but still, good on ya having a go Jase

[Philip Duncan]

My Tuesdsay was booked up with meetings ... but thinking now of cancelling all of them.

Im not getting my hopes up of anything too dramatic... lets just say I/we get let down more often than not by the models! But, I gotta say, the models have been picking this since last weekend with very little fluctuation.

Agree with comments about damage to western areas - West Coast valleys, Horowhenua, Levin, Te Aroha, Eastern Waikato...also Coromandel and eastern parts of Northland. My picks for wind damage at this stage.

"At this stage" is like the equivalent of "special conditions apply".

[Philip Duncan]

Hey guys - quick poll - do you trust GFS, ECMWF, or a mixture of both? I have to admit I find GFS more reliable but I know others don't agree with that. Just curious.

[RWood]

CHCH is much further away from the alps though for the alps to affect the onshore flow compared to the West coast towns for their onshore flow

Dunedin has had gale onshore winds before...

I agree but its the areas on the coastal fringes are more exposed,also you will find its more the onshore winds that blow near to parallel to the coast line,eg NE and Southerly,same on the West Coast ,its the Northerly and SW that are the strong winds

Dunedin has had very strong N/NE gales in the past. Kaikoura can get very strong winds from the NE, but not from the SE.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Hey guys - quick poll - do you trust GFS, ECMWF, or a mixture of both? I have to admit I find GFS more reliable but I know others don't agree with that. Just curious.

I have always been a ECMWF follower.
Been OK. GFS OK as well but ECMWF have 'thrown around' better scenarios


JohnGaul
NZThS

[jamie]

this set up is reminding me of the bomb lows we got in 2008 i think it was. it is forecast to hang around for some time now too. models showing it hangs around until thursday. interesting week for sure. might have to do some gales/flooding chasing (possibly head to te aroha and time it for the winds to be peaking and head to the karagahape gorge and see if it floods).

[DT-NZ]

this set up is reminding me of the bomb lows we got in 2008.

Yes, we were talking about these storms the other day so, if this is likely to be a significant event for the country.. why then are there no storm warnings going out now? so people have ample enough time to atleast prepare ahead of time.

[DT-NZ]

Been doing abit of researching and found the date(s) for that first significant low event of 2008, 26 - 27 July. I remember it well the winds especially - and, also an image on METVUW of John's barometer... I thought it was the most beautiful instrument I had ever seen in my life.

[Michael]

I remember "the bomb" 1st one named that I think july 10 2002?

[Manukau heads obs]

I think there should be more advanced warnings out...press releases now...as this low has been in the models consistantly and is large and will affect almost all of the NZ for a couple of days

[Richard]

The models are certainly looking horrendous this morning and now looks like that the main area of nasty weather will affect areas further south,gees... its gone from bone dry to what looks like flooding coming up within a week.
Hold down ya frocks ladies if you live out west.

[Michael]

Hopefully go to the south in the tasman and across,as the models currently agree,could be advective snow in the east of the SI tues/wednesday?

[DT-NZ]

I think there should be more advanced warnings out...press releases now...as this low has been in the models consistantly and is large and will affect almost all of the NZ for a couple of days

I agree.

[Gary McConnochie]

This is really starting to look promising for some very heavy rain.