Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 23-27

[RWood]

I often check our gutters due to pineneedles of course also hate going up ladders and get the leaf blower on the roof it is dry plus the leaves from the east in autumn,a good west or WNW aides me clearing the gutters out as its a side wind and usually doesnt add or an easterly any other time than autumn.

Please cut down those blimmin trees for your sanity and most importantly ours!

That would spoil all the/his fun.

[jamie]

Please cut down those blimmin trees for your sanity and most importantly ours!

well said

[Myself]

Hey guys - quick poll - do you trust GFS, ECMWF, or a mixture of both?

I prefer the gfs, the worlds best weather model at the moment IMO. I use the ukmet to verify.

Uh.....dream on. ECMWF is better than GFS. This has been proven time....and time....and time....and time....again. Of course there are cases where it doesn't always go that way, and it doesn't help that we have access to much less information from ECMWF (expensive) than we do from GFS (free).

Here's the running chart of models:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/ ... zhist.html


Surprise, surprise. ECMWF trumps GFS consistently.

[David]

I noticed this morning's GFS has dropped the rain total and wind strength for here quite a lot for this event now

[Manukau heads obs]

you can see the low starting to deepen rapidly now, with an exhaust type jet developing over the back end of the cloud sheet in the central tasman

I would not worry about changes in the models at this stage
its the general idea that is important

it does look though like the BOP will bear the brunt of the rain

[NZstorm]

Yes, BOP will be better placed to catch the rain. Looks like Auckland gets into brighter unstable blustery conditions by Monday pm.

The east of the SI looks to be in for an extended spell of wet weather. GFS hints at possibility of an inland snow event for Otago later in week but thats a very uncertain forecast.

[Tornado Tim]

Uh.....dream on. ECMWF is better than GFS. This has been proven time....and time....and time....and time....again. Of course there are cases where it doesn't always go that way, and it doesn't help that we have access to much less information from ECMWF (expensive) than we do from GFS (free).

Here's the running chart of models:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/ ... zhist.html


Surprise, surprise. ECMWF trumps GFS consistently.

He was just stating his opinion! Everyone is allowed 1, you included but..
You dont need to bolster your way and try to prove that your opinion is best all the time.

Anyway back on topic.
There seems to be a thunderstorm risk with this low, YAY
Surface temperatures are set to be around normal while the upper air temp is set to cool quite significantly even down to -25°C it seems.

[Michael]

Yes its lucky we have the internet these days with models,can remember not that long ago we had to do with the radio,"YA" national stations used to give a detailed extended one we religously listened to at 1230,5pm etc or read the synoptic in the paper.
Cold and calm here,high thick cloud now.

[DT-NZ]

Cape Reinga
at 9:00am Sunday 23 May 2010
Temperature: 16°C
Wind Speed: 43km/h
Wind Direction: NE
Rainfall (last hr): 0.0mm
Humidity: 83%
Pressure: 1018hPa

[Andy]

Looking very wet for the east coast of the south island according to the latest GFS models for next week, with snow on the mountains and hills, with snow levels dropping towards the end of the week. This will kick start winter down here.

[DT-NZ]

Cold and calm here,high thick cloud now.

yep same here... views now all thanks to the rusty anchor webcam.

[Chris Raine]

For those involved in Civil Defence we have to view this coming rain event this week with some concern.The saving grace is that we have had a dry summer and autumn(118.6mm since 1 January) and rivers are low and the soils which have a moisture deficit will receive a good top up and hopefully not too much.

[Manukau heads obs]

note that very heavy rain onto very dry soil can lead to run off and flash flooding
e,g like what just happened to the Nelson area...

[Michael]

Be snow in the E of the SI with that high underneath as well and moisture from the north at least higher elevations ie port hills?

[melja]

I see Mr Duncan keeps calling them "STORMS".

Storms are forecast for Northland, north Auckland and Great Barrier Island this evening, with up to 90mm of rain predicted in some hill areas.

Makes me wounder what STORMS are

[Manukau heads obs]

it has become a very loosely used word over the years now...
often now used for thunderstorms...

[spwill]

Any severe weather is a storm ( in relation to wind /precipitation)but a weak shower with Lightning is also called a storm short for Thunderstorm.

[Philip Duncan]

I see Mr Duncan keeps calling them "STORMS".

Storms are forecast for Northland, north Auckland and Great Barrier Island this evening, with up to 90mm of rain predicted in some hill areas.

Makes me wounder what STORMS are

Actually sloppy editing on our behalf, that story was from the NZ Herald not WW.

I don't use the word "storms" unless I'm talking about more than one large storm. (ie, 2 cyclones). If they were thunderstorms I would use the full word "thunderstorms".

Actually, we hesitate using the word Storm altogether... our criteria is usually something severe and a bit 'out of the ordinary'.

The "storm alert" graphic we use at WeatherWatch is used for about 2 or 3 events a year from memory... certainly had to be dusted off this morning

[Manukau heads obs]

check out
http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... cast-3-day
shows very heavy rain event now for the auckland area...if it were to hold true...for monday afternoon..
and gale westerly winds for same area tues afternoon

[snowstormwatcher]

Metservice warning of 250mm of rain in the foothills south of the rangatata river on monday and tuesday. Looking like some severe flooding in this area if that eventuates.

[Tornado Tim]

I still dont know why Waikato hasnt got a warning, yet they give 1 out for Taupo? hmmm

[Richard]

Metservice warning of 250mm of rain in the foothills south of the rangatata river on monday and tuesday. Looking like some severe flooding in this area if that eventuates.

yep, thats a lot of rain alright

[DT-NZ]

Taken approx 30mins ago.

image descriptions

23052010-01.jpg - taken looking north
23052010-00, 23052010-02, 23052010-03 - taken looking west.

[DT-NZ]

Light rain fall now... wind has picked up slightly.

[Manukau heads obs]

amazing how fast the conditions have deterioted here
middle layer cloud appearing now, mama in the high cloud and some spotty rain even
rain radar shows the rain from the warm front moving in fast