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Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 23-27
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 07:48
by Nev
Ok, thought I better start a new thread about this low. Even though it's still a ways out, models seem to be in good agreement with this scenario.
MetVUW's GFS has it at 984 hPa and packing some mean winds...
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 07:51
by Manukau heads obs
someone has left the door open to the tropics at the moment!
suddenly we have gone from persistant highs across the NI to lows from the north
bring it on!
(the rain will be good, but the wind could be damaging in places east of the NI ranges)
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 08:32
by Richard
Looking impressive aright,still needing more rain down this way,hopefully this will be the beast that gives the land a real soaking.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 09:14
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Its backed off for us Cantabrains big time compared to a few runs yesterday!
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 09:28
by jamie
GFS is showing a pressure difference of 20hpa between cape rianga and wellington. winds should be howling!
Its forecast to hang around for while too. Some place like east cape should see some high rainfall totals.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 10:06
by Tim S
I'm not sure if I am reading the models right or not but it looks as if the path this low will take is dependent on the timing of an upper level trough/low moving through. Although I'd imagine that would be the case quite often with lows such as these? With GFS it has the upper level trough moving through on the saturday/sunday, well before the low deepens significantly, meaning it is forecasting the surface low to take a more SE track. Whereas the ECM model has this trough or low moving through on the monday when the low is a lot deeper and has this upper low dragging the surface low more to the east and consequently missing most of the North Island.
Either scenario though still has Northland getting heavy falls though which is good news for you guys up there, although not so with all this rain forecast up there over the next 12-24 hours I am guessing?
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 10:32
by Manukau heads obs
latest GFS has cranked it up again
will be a damaging storm if holds true!
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 12:19
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Latest run has the really intense stuff well to the East of the country now
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 12:31
by Manukau heads obs
the models will do that, this far out,next run could easily have it back over the NI
interesting times
in fact
NOGAPS has it tracking south west of the NI, and not as intense, and making it all the way to the SI with rain for eastern areas there
so its still not nailed down yet (heck, the thing does not even exist yet! (but you can see the precursor cloud pulse coming aross ozy now)
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 12:53
by spwill
The general trend in GFS/ECMWF has been for the Low to pass just east of the NI with a Ridge over the south of the country, heavy rain will be in the east and mostly over the NorthIsland, gales as well. The interest for us in Auckland will be how strong the winds get.
Still quite a long way out,yes models often change
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 17:20
by Richard
Manukau heads observer wrote:the models will do that, this far out,next run could easily have it back over the NI
interesting times
in fact
NOGAPS has it tracking south west of the NI, and not as intense, and making it all the way to the SI with rain for eastern areas there
oh you beauty
so its still not nailed down yet (heck, the thing does not even exist yet! (but you can see the precursor cloud pulse coming aross ozy now)
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 18:09
by Storm Struck
First time METVUW MSLP is bringing this low further south now, with some good steady rain for the east coast of the SI to about South Canterbury.
Strong SE winds likly too and the snow level will be down abit maybe 400-500m.
North Island looks in the firing line for this beast, down to 980hpa by Tuesday.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 18:15
by Dean.
Jasestorm wrote:First time METVUW MSLP is bringing this low further south now, with some good steady rain for the east coast of the SI to about South Canterbury.
Strong SE winds likly too and the snow level will be down abit maybe 400-500m.
North Island looks in the firing line for this beast, down to 980hpa by Tuesday.
And very similar to what Blue Skies have forecasted!
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 19:38
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
I noticed that Jim Hickey was getting excited about this event on the TV One weather this evening.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 20:12
by Michael
I dont notice much difference each/any night,you can be a tv forecaster if you say on the east side,over the other side,on the top,westside,useless if your not seeing the screen.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I noticed that Jim Hickey was getting excited about this event on the TV One weather this evening.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 20:20
by melja
Deano wrote:Jasestorm wrote:First time METVUW MSLP is bringing this low further south now, with some good steady rain for the east coast of the SI to about South Canterbury.
Strong SE winds likly too and the snow level will be down abit maybe 400-500m.
North Island looks in the firing line for this beast, down to 980hpa by Tuesday.
And very similar to what Blue Skies have forecasted!
Yeah they have forcast rain or showers for the next 12 days and snow on 10 of those days too but we all know that will never happen
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 21:21
by NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Michael wrote:I dont notice much difference each/any night,you can be a tv forecaster if you say on the east side,over the other side,on the top,westside,useless if your not seeing the screen.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:I noticed that Jim Hickey was getting excited about this event on the TV One weather this evening.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Each night the forecaster on the TV on the screen is different but I'd say westside down the top side of the screen is on the side of the other side that is screen is useless as well, not noticing the difference
JohnGaul
NZThS
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 21:32
by jamie
As time goes on the models are getting this low deeper and deeper. Thats a good trend to be seeing in the models for us severe weather junkies. Latest ive seen is 976hpa just east of NZ.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Thu 20/05/2010 21:52
by Dean.
jamie.h wrote:As time goes on the models are getting this low deeper and deeper. Thats a good trend to be seeing in the models for us severe weather junkies. Latest ive seen is 976hpa just east of NZ.
976 hpa just east of NZ!
Would be on cyclone watch if you were in North Queensland
Shops would be going beserk
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 11:12
by Storm Struck
Models continue to be on cue with this low affecting us as well especially late Tuesday and into Wednesday with heavy rain possible.
I do question the MS though how can there be light winds forecast for Christchurch City but in the rural forecast it has gale force winds
.
Unless they think Banks Peninnsula will shelter the city from the SE flow, its the only thing i can think of even so if that is the case the winds will be far from light strong and blustery more like.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 11:28
by spwill
Yes, models have the Low on a more westerly track now so the heavy rain will be more widespread.
Probably some thundery falls for the far NE of the NorthIsland as well.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 11:37
by Manukau heads obs
I see they now have a NW change for the auckland area, meaning M/S now think the low will track down the west side of the NI (like NOGAPS was showing)
sure is going to be explosive development (cyclogenesis type development?))
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 12:21
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Jasestorm wrote:Models continue to be on cue with this low affecting us as well especially late Tuesday and into Wednesday with heavy rain possible.
I do question the MS though how can there be light winds forecast for Christchurch City but in the rural forecast it has gale force winds
.
Unless they think Banks Peninnsula will shelter the city from the SE flow, its the only thing i can think of even so if that is the case the winds will be far from light strong and blustery more like.
Monday and Tuesday under the Christchurch forecast now says" Rain, Heavy and Thundery. southeasterlies. "
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 12:26
by spwill
Rain, Heavy and Thundery. southeasterlies. "
would need an extremely cold air mass for thunder on a SE flow East Coast SI.
Re: Even Deeper Subtropical Low - May 24-28?
Posted: Fri 21/05/2010 12:28
by CHCH Weather Chaser
Yeah seems rather bizzare to me, Ive never seen a forecast like that!