RWood wrote:
Newlands, not Newtown.
Queens Birthday Weekend Low
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Michael
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
Thanks, I obviously misheard,newlands is quite high and exposed.
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
Others at the OPC heard the same earlier forecasts - which suggested heavy rain - and made the only sensible decision to cancel activities. The guide in question made a terrible call, as was plainly stated at the enquiry. You can't pin incompetence on Met. for this one. Friends of mine in the outdoors and flying fraternities have stated bluntly that the woman's decision was a very bad one indeed (to put it much more politely than they did) - akin to the idiotic decision made in a Swiss tragedy some years earlier. The enquiry made it scathingly clear that the OPC's practices were very poor.Talbotm wrote:. Can i just remind you about the metservice report about the magatepopo stream canyoning disaster that killed 6 young people. There forecast came in after jodie had left to head to the gorge with the pupils. jodie had seen the latest forecast at the time. Which was not accurate as we all found out. They had put a new forecast out only hours before the storm hit but the kids were in the canyon by then.
You'll have to do better than that.
I ignore all colloquial "metrics" of forecast accuracy - as they invariably show negative recall bias, just as gamblers use positive recall bias.
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
This is one of the most distasteful attacks I have seen. Thats disgraceful Talbotm, whoever you are.Talbotm wrote:I expected abit of critisism as not everyone would agree with my view. Can i just remind you about the metservice report about the magatepopo stream canyoning disaster that killed 6 young people. There forecast came in after jodie had left to head to the gorge with the pupils. jodie had seen the latest forecast at the time. Which was not accurate as we all found out. They had put a new forecast out only hours before the storm hit but the kids were in the canyon by then.
Also recently Porirua had a major thunderstorm and i heard about it happening from a mate out there before the metservice had even put a warning or even a watch for it. I understand the metservice have a hard job but they have been forecasting our weather for many decades now which should make there job easier. I just seem to have noticed there forecasts lately have been more wrong than right.
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- Nev
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
And I think we should leave it at that.
Any further comments not directly related to events over the last few days risk being deleted.
Any further comments not directly related to events over the last few days risk being deleted.
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
I apoligise to anyone for any offence i may have caused in the last post.
I looking forward to this sunday now as there looks to be something cold in the mix not to sure where it will end up but i will be keeping a close eye on it?
I looking forward to this sunday now as there looks to be something cold in the mix not to sure where it will end up but i will be keeping a close eye on it?
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
Fair enough, we'll leave it at that.Talbotm wrote:I apoligise to anyone for any offence i may have caused in the last post.
I looking forward to this sunday now as there looks to be something cold in the mix not to sure where it will end up but i will be keeping a close eye on it?
Bit early to tell about the next system, looks promising at this stage although I reckon its more a southland/ otago event so far, but a slight shift from SW to S flow will change that
Christchurch Rocks
- gllitz
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
- Richard
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
gllitz wrote:The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?
Yes
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
The metservice got low confidence of heavy snow for sun/mon most north canterbury and marlbourgh and central high country to low levels but its a long way out but the longer the model the stays the same the better the chance i think.
- Michael
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
The weekend one primarily be west and north of course Otago/southland but the east tues wed according to far ahead models.
Richard wrote:gllitz wrote:The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?
Yes
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
Michael wrote:The weekend one primarily be west and north of course Otago/southland but the east tues wed according to far ahead models.
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Re: Queens Birthday Weekend Low
This event has now finished so no more comments please unless they relate to last WE.
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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