Queens Birthday Weekend Low

[Michael]

Thanks, I obviously misheard,newlands is quite high and exposed.

Newlands, not Newtown.

[RWood]

. Can i just remind you about the metservice report about the magatepopo stream canyoning disaster that killed 6 young people. There forecast came in after jodie had left to head to the gorge with the pupils. jodie had seen the latest forecast at the time. Which was not accurate as we all found out. They had put a new forecast out only hours before the storm hit but the kids were in the canyon by then.

Others at the OPC heard the same earlier forecasts - which suggested heavy rain - and made the only sensible decision to cancel activities. The guide in question made a terrible call, as was plainly stated at the enquiry. You can't pin incompetence on Met. for this one. Friends of mine in the outdoors and flying fraternities have stated bluntly that the woman's decision was a very bad one indeed (to put it much more politely than they did) - akin to the idiotic decision made in a Swiss tragedy some years earlier. The enquiry made it scathingly clear that the OPC's practices were very poor.

You'll have to do better than that.

I ignore all colloquial "metrics" of forecast accuracy - as they invariably show negative recall bias, just as gamblers use positive recall bias.

[Razor]

I expected abit of critisism as not everyone would agree with my view. Can i just remind you about the metservice report about the magatepopo stream canyoning disaster that killed 6 young people. There forecast came in after jodie had left to head to the gorge with the pupils. jodie had seen the latest forecast at the time. Which was not accurate as we all found out. They had put a new forecast out only hours before the storm hit but the kids were in the canyon by then.

Also recently Porirua had a major thunderstorm and i heard about it happening from a mate out there before the metservice had even put a warning or even a watch for it. I understand the metservice have a hard job but they have been forecasting our weather for many decades now which should make there job easier. I just seem to have noticed there forecasts lately have been more wrong than right.

This is one of the most distasteful attacks I have seen. Thats disgraceful Talbotm, whoever you are.

[Nev]

And I think we should leave it at that.

Any further comments not directly related to events over the last few days risk being deleted.

[Talbotm]

I apoligise to anyone for any offence i may have caused in the last post.

I looking forward to this sunday now as there looks to be something cold in the mix not to sure where it will end up but i will be keeping a close eye on it?

[Razor]

I apoligise to anyone for any offence i may have caused in the last post.

I looking forward to this sunday now as there looks to be something cold in the mix not to sure where it will end up but i will be keeping a close eye on it?

Fair enough, we'll leave it at that.

Bit early to tell about the next system, looks promising at this stage although I reckon its more a southland/ otago event so far, but a slight shift from SW to S flow will change that

[gllitz]

The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?

[Richard]

The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?

Yes

[Talbotm]

The metservice got low confidence of heavy snow for sun/mon most north canterbury and marlbourgh and central high country to low levels but its a long way out but the longer the model the stays the same the better the chance i think.

[Michael]

The weekend one primarily be west and north of course Otago/southland but the east tues wed according to far ahead models.

The next system, whilst cold, doesn't really show much for coastal Canty (CHCH, anyway)...little or no moisture with cold does not snow make... Still too early to tell, if you ask me...perhaps time for another thread, then?

Yes

[Gary McConnochie]

The weekend one primarily be west and north of course Otago/southland but the east tues wed according to far ahead models.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

This event has now finished so no more comments please unless they relate to last WE.

JohnGaul
NZThS