Ye Olde Cold front - 10th & 11th June 2010

[Nev]

Had 1 or 2 brief dumps here, 7.5mm overnight and a few strikes to the east. Most of the action seems to have been around Northland, Great Barrier Island and the Coromandel ...
.

[Michael]

Front gone through now,rain stopped and wind completely dropped before that change.

[spwill]

Can see the affect of the Northland land mass on last nights frontal storm activity in this loop
http://wwlln.net/WWLLN_movies/Movie_of_ ... an_BIG.gif

[Tim S]

As I expected our rainfall was a bit lower than the 58mm we got from the last low pressure system, still 28mm to 9am so not too shabby at all. This means Nelson Aero will be almost at the average for June already if not past it and after getting almost double the average in May everything is looking quite saturated around here.

Its interesting looking at the photos I took when we first arrived in Nelson 6 weeks ago compared to now, the grass and parks were quite brown in comparison. Not as marked difference as we got in Perth were you go from sandpit to grassland in a couple of months but still quite noticeable.

Still its not making it any easier to explain to the better half this kind of weather isn't the norm for this area of New Zealand, she still thinks I told her porky's when I said Nelson's winter's were almost as sunny as Perth with less rain! At least I can listen to the rain falling on the roof of the dog house at night.

[Storm Struck]

Got a wee sneaky SW wind here this morning not predicted, but you can get these sneaking in under the NW flow.
Even abit of weak CU running inland parralell to the Southern Alps.
I see MS have snow to 100m over Southland tomorrow night, now thats cold air and pretty much says snow to sea level by Sunday for coastal areas.
Again its a pitty theres bugger all moisture around, the models havnt budged on precipitation numbers so i think its going to be more a brief event than anything especially for inland areas.
Banks Peninnsula will no doubt benefit from the icy southerly but i would be surprised if even Mt Herbert got more than 5cm.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Got a wee sneaky SW wind here this morning not predicted, but you can get these sneaking in under the NW flow.
Even abit of weak CU running inland parralell to the Southern Alps.
I see MS have snow to 100m over Southland tomorrow night, now thats cold air and pretty much says snow to sea level by Sunday for coastal areas.
Again its a pitty theres bugger all moisture around, the models havnt budged on precipitation numbers so i think its going to be more a brief event than anything especially for inland areas.
Banks Peninnsula will no doubt benefit from the icy southerly but i would be surprised if even Mt Herbert got more than 5cm.

The Southwest change was predicted, has been for a few days but with skies remaining clear from Yesterday which it is. Southerly at 30km.h here now. The winds will switch back to NE later today. Snow forecast to "near sea level" in Southland on Sunday. Yes, very little moisture, I see it should remain rather fine and chilly over the city through the weekend and Monday as well with just a chance of some wintry showers early Sunday morning perhaps. Looks to be a good system approaching next weekend (19th-20th), a long way off but big low area looks like it could feed heavy rain to the westcoast of the SI and then on the backend we may get a cold outbreak along the east, ofcourse nothing concrete and bound to change.

[spwill]

very little moisture

Given the very cold upper level air with a long sea track there should be some decent Cbs along the SI eastern coastal fringe Sunday, assuming the flow will go proper southerly.

[Razor]

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a completely dry weekend here in ChCh. Blue Skies I see have scaled the risk back to 60% now. Flip a coin, SW or S?

[David]

The models showed a strong SW change to follow the front, yet we still have a gentle breeze, hmmm...

[Razor]

The models showed a strong SW change to follow the front, yet we still have a gentle breeze, hmmm...

Michael will be gutted

[Michael]

Undoubtedly it will come,howling its nuts off,can feel it its presence not far off.Its still a westerly here now.

The models showed a strong SW change to follow the front, yet we still have a gentle breeze, hmmm...

[RWood]

Still its not making it any easier to explain to the better half this kind of weather isn't the norm for this area of New Zealand, she still thinks I told her porky's when I said Nelson's winter's were almost as sunny as Perth with less rain! At least I can listen to the rain falling on the roof of the dog house at night.

As I commented earlier, a large area has had abnormally low sunshine in the last 3-4 weeks. Here in Wellington we will not be far above the alltime low for any 28-day period (this case ending this Saturday).

[gllitz]

Most recent GFS run (00Z run) showing more promising numbers for at least a few flakes here around sea level in Canty (chch aero, anyway)...moderators, perhaps a different thread for the upcoming "antarctic blast of June 12/13th?"...It isn't really related to this thread and I have a sneaking suspicion the new thread may grow quickly!

[Michael]

They go on about all these storms,yes we had some good winds from the E or N recently but this is up with these,typical now the trees have lost their leaves for he year,an easterly forecast now as foreign as space flight to arcturus.

[Lawrence]

Most recent GFS run (00Z run) showing more promising numbers for at least a few flakes here around sea level in Canty (chch aero, anyway)...moderators, perhaps a different thread for the upcoming "antarctic blast of June 12/13th?"...It isn't really related to this thread and I have a sneaking suspicion the new thread may grow quickly!

You bet ya! the numbers on the latest runs are fantastic,right over Christchurch too.Could be a hell of dump if thing stay this way, right down to sea level.

[snowstormwatcher]

Im thinking it will be more of a southland otago event possibly coastal canterbury north of ashburton im not exepcting any snow here in south canterbury.

[Richard]

Most recent GFS run (00Z run) showing more promising numbers for at least a few flakes here around sea level in Canty (chch aero, anyway)...moderators, perhaps a different thread for the upcoming "antarctic blast of June 12/13th?"...It isn't really related to this thread and I have a sneaking suspicion the new thread may grow quickly!

Given that i dont live anywhere near sea level or even anywhere near a coastline,i cant see myself getting too excited by what i see coming,certainly wont get any off those rogue storms that Jase got the other day.ya lucky bugger

[Dale]

Well the showers and winds have certainly ramped up here over the last couple of hours.. cross fingers something doesnt take off tonight.

[Storm Struck]

Yes latest model runs have a much better set up with more favourable moisture, i would actually not like to see it go any higher than that because generally when the precipitation numbers go up the freezing level follows.
But this is looking more of a Canterbury,Otago,Southland,Kaikoura event now as apposed to earlier on today where it was more a lower South Island event.
Yes Richard i even have a low risk of weak thunderstorms on Sunday on my website which you can view on my profile, maybe a clap of thunder or two with some heavier showers.
Often convective clouds as spwill mentioned earlier for near the east coast, can also bring some heavy falls of snow in those wintry CB's.

[Lawrence]

But this is looking more of a Canterbury,Otago,Southland,Kaikoura event now as apposed to earlier on today where it was more a lower South Island event.

Looking at the moment to start about Midnight Saturday or early hours of Sunday ,your right about Kaikoura,looking like they could get a fairly good amount overnight and morning.

[mattyj46]

Just a quick question for those who know alot more than me,

At the moment what are the chances of Fiordland (particulary the Te Anau) area of getting snow? The olds are heading off tomorrow afternoon and coming back Sunday night.

Cheers in advance.

[Lawrence]

Just a quick question for those who know alot more than me,

At the moment what are the chances of Fiordland (particulary the Te Anau) area of getting snow? The olds are heading off tomorrow afternoon and coming back Sunday night.

Cheers in advance.

Saturday Afternoon.Mostly cloudy with a few sleety showers.
Saturday Evening.Mostly cloudy with sleet. Showers possibly mixed with wet flurries.
Overnight.Snow showers or wet flurries
Sunday Morning.Persistant snow flurries or showers likely.
Sunday Afternoon.Cloudy with sunny periods with a chance of snow flurries or showers.

[mattyj46]

Just a quick question for those who know alot more than me,

At the moment what are the chances of Fiordland (particulary the Te Anau) area of getting snow? The olds are heading off tomorrow afternoon and coming back Sunday night.

Cheers in advance.

Saturday Afternoon.Mostly cloudy with a few sleety showers.
Saturday Evening.Mostly cloudy with sleet. Showers possibly mixed with wet flurries.
Overnight.Snow showers or wet flurries
Sunday Morning.Persistant snow flurries or showers likely.
Sunday Afternoon.Cloudy with sunny periods with a chance of snow flurries or showers.

Sweet as cheers mate

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Most recent GFS run (00Z run) showing more promising numbers for at least a few flakes here around sea level in Canty (chch aero, anyway)...moderators, perhaps a different thread for the upcoming "antarctic blast of June 12/13th?"...It isn't really related to this thread and I have a sneaking suspicion the new thread may grow quickly!

Iv'e created a new topic for you, Glen.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Talbotm]

Should be a good storm if models are to go by hopefully we get abit more snow here than last weekend. Just hope moisture gets up here. I see weather watch mentioned snow around mt Taranaki to a few hundred metres.