NZ Weather Forum

...moderators, perhaps a different thread for the upcoming "antarctic blast of June 12/13th?"...It isn't really related to this thread and I have a sneaking suspicion the new thread may grow quickly.

Oh.. OK Glen here it is. You can create a new threade if you want to


JohnGaul
NZThS

Or renamed the brief Antarctic flick ?

Its just another standard winter trough,we had plenty in bygone years,thunderstorms dont really occur in sw flows unless a low forms on the trough,thunderstorms probably be a better bet like 2008 where there was a high to the south and tasman lows parked over the NI dumbelling in the tasman,yes there can be small tornados(mostly after effects) but how often you see them?Anyway here it just in a SW is a constant wind especially once the high sits in mid tasman and pressure above say 1005hpa,showery and the squalls just bring more pine needles.

I see it is snowing to 500m around Qtwn this morn, a good start to winter for the Qtwn skii fields this year.

Later it should setup turoa as well,theyre exposed to it (westerly) for them.

You have all probably noticed the snow forecasts produced by the Metservice before but I only just noticed them yesterday, yes I am very observant! http://metservice.com/mountain/snow-forecast

Anyway it looks as though as Queenstown could get some good accumulations today and tomorrow, it has them getting snow almost all day tomorrow. Although I have a feeling the map's resolution doesn't show variations in topography as well as it could. Still good news for the ski fields as you said Spwill, especially for the ones around there opening this weekend and next.

Also shows some good accumulation on the Rainbow ski field, fingers crossed we don't get too much rain from NW flows before they open.

Tim S wrote:You have all probably noticed the snow forecasts produced by the Metservice before but I only just noticed them yesterday, yes I am very observant! http://metservice.com/mountain/snow-forecast

Anyway it looks as though as Queenstown could get some good accumulations today and tomorrow, it has them getting snow almost all day tomorrow. Although I have a feeling the map's resolution doesn't show variations in topography as well as it could. Still good news for the ski fields as you said Spwill, especially for the ones around there opening this weekend and next.

Also shows some good accumulation on the Rainbow ski field, fingers crossed we don't get too much rain from NW flows before they open.

Lol and I have just noticed them now, thanks for pointing it out.

These models are all over the show i think its best to just say we are going to get a brief wintry flick tomorrow at this stage clearing by evening.
The models yesterday had it on a more Southerly track but now its flicked back to a S-SW flow, that was idealically what was going to bring the increase in precipitation and no doubt the models will change again tonight.
I think we might see some deeper shower clouds near the coast during the morning which could bring those snow showers to near sea level, maybe a clap or two of thunder.
Interesting how Blue Skies have always stayed with snow to 200m but the MS have been up and down with the levels, even the lower South had snow to 100m yesterday which changed to 200m at night and now its back to 100m.

I see even Queenstown now has fine weather with below freezing overnight lows for the next 3 days.

Looking very brief now unlikely to see any shower activity here at all.

might be a fizzer

I'm thinking fizzer now, as well...but not for down south...time to just sit back and watch, really...

There's a CB to the SW from here, and two trackers are picking up strikes that way.
3pm radar doesnt pick anything up perhaps its quite far offshore as its on the horizon.

Looking like a fizzer alright the models just keep changing. Maybe a few heavy showers but looking like tuesday the better day for round here now. The metservice saying widespread showers with low level snow welly and wairarapa.

Here after about mid day tomorrow it be like yesterday afternoon/evening except 2 solid days of it before easing,today its a WNW with occasional showers and 15c.

17 or 18C max for Auckland today Michael, 13C dewpoints.
Some heavy showers moving across Auckland now, some thunderstorms down Waitomo way with a Cb line down there.

Yes, quite a mild day really considering its mid June! This front out to our west is struggling to find instability. The odd cb on it and yes, isolated lightning activity.

The showers are supposed to be squally, but they are the opposite....wind has died down instead

N.W.tending W wind at the moment here,models have backed off with snow to low levels < 100 m ,looks like Malvern Hills area Kaikoura area could get something out of it though.

edit 17:02 Sky looking a bit matumus like over head

We havent had anything like last year with maximums 11 or 12 let alone 2 for minimums yet this winter.

NZstorm wrote:Yes, quite a mild day really considering its mid June! This front out to our west is struggling to find instability. The odd cb on it and yes, isolated lightning activity.

Yes. I did notice some CB forms along the Alps on the way home from work this afternoon but not very sexy looking. This incoming system dosen't look very interesting at all, considering the incoming anticyclone moving in behind it to add more uninteresting weather. Mind you we get frosts this time of year from anticyclones if it is fine and no rubbish 'clagged' gets trapped under it .

JohnGaul
NZThS

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Yes. I did notice some CB forms along the Alps on the way home from work this afternoon but not very sexy looking. This incoming system dosen't look very interesting at all, considering the incoming anticyclone moving in behind it to add more uninteresting weather. Mind you we get frosts this time of year from anticyclones if it is fine and no rubbish 'clagged' gets trapped under it .

JohnGaul
NZThS

Not looking forward to the coming hard rosts,though it appears by the M/S website that there wont be any anywhere in Canterbury in the coming days.
My focus now is on the next system as there's no point pinning any hopes on this one

Have to admit, I dont think ive ever seen the forecast change so many times before than what it has over the last few days.

Only things I can really think will happen is; some sort of moisture(maybe), something really cold, something that would be best spent indoors.

Today was pretty nice though, well except for the cold wind but hey, cant win all the time

Heck! that Cb passing over me hit hard!!!
The Red/Purple on the radar hit directly Matangi! giving a rain rate up to 202mm/hr!!!!
The Weather Station started beeping
a jump from 3.0mm to 7.2mm in a matter of around 2 minutes!!!

Hasn't been much going on here so far, precipitation too patchy and scattered. Hoping for some squalls tomorrow as today has been a 'dud'