Next cold spell 22 June - ?

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Razor
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Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Razor »

Models are looking increasingly confident of some signficant action for all parts of the country next week, thought its time for a new thread.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Richard »

Razor wrote:Models are looking increasingly confident of some signficant action for all parts of the country next week, thought its time for a new thread.



Good idea :smile: ((((significant action ))))great \:D/ been too dam boring lately
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by melja »

Thats good im travelling around the lower south island and up the west coast with the caravan for the next 11 days so might get some action weather \:D/
In moeraki tonight, timaru last night and had a good frost then duners friday night then maybe te anau for the rain this weekend.
Hope to catch a ride on my uncles fishing boat across to stewet island at some stage too so i hope its not to windy :B
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Razor »

I think you'll miss the worst of this system down that way, on current projections (ie uncertain!)
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

The 21st/22nd is the Winter Solstace and the proper introduction to winter (Foggy will be back from the USA so he will be able to correct the heading for the forum) so as we move on from the shortest day, or the longest night, whichever you prefer, the real winter should come into being. >_<

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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by NZstorm »

or the longest night, whichever you prefer, the real winter should come into being.
yes, the shortest day is no more the middle of winter as the longest day (before xmas) is the middle of summer. But I think winter will end early this year due to La Nina conditions, certainly for northern regions anyway.

There is too much variability in the modeling to get a handle on this next system but it doesn't look much just now.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:

There is too much variability in the modeling to get a handle on this next system but it doesn't look much just now.
Yes I agree, but I see MS are still saying easterly gales?
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by spwill »

Looks like a cold trough moves up the country tues/wends behind the weekend sub tropical low, would be a much more interesting trough in December. :>
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Michael »

Much milder tonight too.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Razor »

Latest Metvuw and Blueskies projections looking at this event being pretty interesting Monday-Thursday, potentially.

Merservice and ECMWF not buying into it yet?
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

Metservice foracasting snow to low levels on wendnesday for Canterbury.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Richard »

snowstormwatcher wrote:Metservice foracasting snow to low levels on wendnesday for Canterbury.
Yer and Waipara looks to be the most likely place to get the snow with lowest temps forecasted ,head to an higher altitude like Darfield and the air temps look to be much warmer over Weds and Thurs going by the M/S Website,so those who look to snow chase,stay near sea level near Waipara :crazy:
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

The latest run has hardly any precipitation at all and doesnt look very exciting at all. The models have been all over the show with this system though but youd think getting closer that the one through before midnight tonight is crucial to determing what may happen.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by spwill »

Perhaps some rain with snow on the hills moving north mid week with that trough, central NZ more in the firing line, heavy showers developing upper north Island.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Talbotm »

It was looking better the other day even metservice had snow to low levels up to marlbourgh but it looks like the models have changed again and not as promising now. Just thundery rain now. I think the wind more easterly now as the other day it looked more southerly. Its still 4 days away yet but will watch closely. :-k
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by NZstorm »

The polar trough coming through Tuesday could well be a snow event for inland Otago. The ski fields will get some snow out of it but I think there is a good chance of snow falling to lower levels in inland Otago, with snow to places like Wanaka and Omarama.

The trough progresses north into the Tasman Sea catching subtropical moisture end of the week, with rain for northern areas.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by Andy »

NZstorm wrote:The polar trough coming through Tuesday could well be a snow event for inland Otago. The ski fields will get some snow out of it but I think there is a good chance of snow falling to lower levels in inland Otago with snow to places like Wanaka and Omarama.

The trough progresses north into the Tasman Sea catching subtropical moisture end of the week with rain for northern areas.
Do you think that Alexandra, Cromwell and Queenstown would be in for snow as well?
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by spwill »

Just thundery rain now
thunder risk looks end of the week when moist air is dragged down onto the NI
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Do you think that Alexandra, Cromwell and Queenstown would be in for snow as well?
I would include inland Southland through to inland Canterbury in that forecast. Just have to see how it shapes up in the next couple of model runs.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by gllitz »

I think snow to 200m and perhaps a little lower in inland parts of Canty, but for coastal parts just lots of wintry showers, as we typically have with these events.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by snowstormwatcher »

At this stage its looking more like an easterly flow so im picking frezzing levels will be to high for any real snow below 600m. But that could change as we get a bit closer in.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by spwill »

easterly flow so im picking frezzing levels will be to high for any real snow below 600m
Snow can fall to sealevel on an easterly as it can on a westerly , I have seen wintry showers on a NorthEasterly. :smile:
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by melja »

Warm down here in southland with it around 10C most of today and just light rain, drove through from pounawea in the catlins to te anau today and there is bugger all snow about down this way and the locals say there wont be any in over a week so dont think this will be a snow event for down here.

Heres some pics and i know its of topic but it shows the sun ;-) they have been resized so are crap but im useing moble internet to upload and its slow.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by tich »

Cold, driving rain out on BP this morning, with a light dusting of snow above about 600-650m.
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Re: Next cold spell 22 June - ?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Latest run of the gfs is going for a slightly less cold scenario for the South Island. Otago ski fields however will still get some top up snow.
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