Troughs and Depressions to end June

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Michael
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Troughs and Depressions to end June

Unread post by Michael »

Looks at this stage a large depression will affect much of the country for nearly a week from Wednesday,heres fridays prognosis from metservice.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, looks like a polar low stalls over the north of the country. It struggles to pull in subtropical moisture according to 00Z gfs but given steep lapse rates (cold upper air) the air will be unstable. To early for detail but obviously some wet weather for the north with thunderstorms/hail likely.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, it looks like it. I think we are buggered for any more anticyclones, once the 1040hPa passes over us. :-(
This high could be, what they call, an "Anticyclonic Blowout" 8-o

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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by David »

Well MS thinks Auckland are in the firing line:
Issued by MetService 10:04am 22 June 2010

Thursday

North Island, a few showers everywhere, turning to rain in the north and east, possibly heavy in Auckland and Coromandel. South Island, rain or drizzle in the east and Nelson, but fine spells increasing elsewhere.

Friday

North Island, rain possibly heavy in Auckland and Gisborne, and spreading to most other places. South Island, mainly fine, but areas of rain or drizzle in Marlborough and Canterbury.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

This is looking rather interesting, The big intense high pushes the low up to the top of country and then starts to progress down the country and deepens.
Meanwhile the high leaves the south island and then another low starts to take its place.

Will have to keep an eye out on the models :)
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by NZstorm »

A few t/cu bubbling up today, enough to produce local showers. I got caught in one over Manukau. Will see more t/cu bubble up again tomorrow with isolated cb developing given steep lapse rates and minimal diurnal warming. Isolated small hail but I doubt thunder as there just won't be the lift tomorrow. Friday we see some stronger frontal forcing over the Auckland region, if that comes off then thunder possible. Certainly more in the way of rain Friday.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

NZstorm wrote:A few t/cu bubbling up today, enough to produce local showers. I got caught in one over Manukau. Will see more t/cu bubble up again tomorrow with isolated cb developing given steep lapse rates and minimal diurnal warming. Isolated small hail but I doubt thunder as there just won't be the lift tomorrow. Friday we see some stronger frontal forcing over the Auckland region, if that comes off then thunder possible. Certainly more in the way of rain Friday.
Yea saw that too, the odd mature cumulus around the Kaimai's.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by jamie »

yep definitely the sky had an unstable look. have not seen t/cu since USA. even though today was pathetic it was a nice change. even caught a shower on the way home from work.

oh Tim...FYI i work at newstead now so nice and close to you if we ever decide to run off and chase one day.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, some lazy afternoon Cb development in our skies today, weak showers over land, radar showed better showers out to sea.
Photo, shower cloud over South Auckland
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Crap, Just ran through the GFS and there is a Beast of a low forecast!

Way too far out atm but it is quite exciting to see! :D
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looks like a cold wet day tomorrow for Auckland (friday). GFS indicates a max of 11 or 12C with rain.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:Looks like a cold wet day tomorrow for Auckland (friday). GFS indicates a max of 11 or 12C with rain.
Not looking forward to it, but about time....haven't had a single 'cold' day yet!
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Nev »

I'm hoping for some clear skies on Saturday night for this year's first partial lunar eclipse. Peaking at around 11:40pm, NZ will be well placed for one of the best views in the world. And even though only up to 54% of the moon's diameter gets covered by the Earth's shadow at its peak, the moon should still be tinged with a slight mixture of faint orange and reddish hues, due to the filtered glows of sunsets and sunrises occurring around the rim of the Earth at the time.

At this stage it's looking a bit touch and go for Akld, with our merged lows sitting over central NZ. The S and W of the South Island is looking more promising though.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by spwill »

I think passsing clouds for Auckland Saturday night.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Michael »

Well we havent anything like last winter especially may to 3rd week of july yet or near it.
David wrote:
NZstorm wrote:Looks like a cold wet day tomorrow for Auckland (friday). GFS indicates a max of 11 or 12C with rain.
Not looking forward to it, but about time....haven't had a single 'cold' day yet!
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by David »

Wonder where our easterly is, its gone southerly here. Sun is starting to come out after a drab morning :)
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by jamie »

by jeez its cold outside. raining and just damn cold at 8 degrees. ill probably piss off some SI people on here for saying rain and 8 degrees is cold. doesnt help that im out working in it.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, it looked like a wet day in the Waikato on the radar. I see Mercer had 24mm whereas Auckland only got a trace.
The gfs yesterday just did not pick up on the Waikato rain. And for tomorrow the 00Z gfs keeps the rain south of Auckland city again! Not sure what to make of that, previous runs have had Auckland wet.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by David »

Yes the GFS has been highly variable recently, hard to trust what it is saying for the next 24 hours even! >_<
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by RWood »

It's fair to say now that NIWA's May-July outlook as far as rainfall goes looks to be well off the mark, with the east-west divide quite wrong so far.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by Michael »

We had an easterly in the morning and SSE this arvo,drizzle A.M typical sun came out proper in the late afternoon when its heating value was virtually useless.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by jamie »

rain is either on or off. when its on its heavy. Tim seems to be a little too far south and missing it. He is only on 6mm yet im nearing 20mm.

hmm got developing rain above me right now with sporadic really big drops on the roof. classic summer thunderstorm type rain drops.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by jamie »

we are going to end up with well over 40mm if this keeps up. the front has hardly moved all day. constantly building right over us.
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Re: Troughs and depressions to end june

Unread post by David »

Still no rain here, but check out the latest warnings:
Heavy rain in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay easing before dawn Friday. Heavy rain for Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty.

A broad trough of low pressure over northern New Zealand is expected to remain slow moving for much of Friday, directing a moist east to southeast flow across the North Island. Heavy rain over the ranges of northern Hawkes Bay and Gisborne is expected to ease overnight tonight(Thursday). Periods of heavy rain are expected for the western Bay of Plenty and Coromandel Peninsula tonight(Thursday) and Friday, with 100 to 150mm of rain likely in this period. In addition periods of heavy rain are likely for Auckland from about Takapuna southwards during Friday, where up to 90mm of rain may accumulate.

People in these areas are advised that streams and rivers will rise quickly, and surface flooding and slips may occur.
Not often Auckland has a heavy rain warning ;)
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Re: Troughs and Depressions to end June

Unread post by NZstorm »

A bit of rain in Auckland overnight. GFS has the front moving south of us by early afternoon. The front doesn't look overly active right now but no doubt more convection will fire on it during the day. I see Waihi has had 120mm. Closer to Auckland I see both Mercer and Haunua have recorded 45mm.
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