Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

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Re: Unsettled Early July

Unread post by Razor »

I think this thread should be renamed to focus on the North Island. South Island weather looks reasonably settled for a while now by comparison.
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Re: Unsettled Early July- North Island

Unread post by Michael »

ECWMF has it dragged up the eastcoast of the SI this time next week from a secondary low including the NI low then to the chathams in the tasman with an intense anticyclone in the south tasman.
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Re: Unsettled Early July- North Island

Unread post by David »

Sure looks increasingly likely that we are going to get a very strong easterly here on Sunday night....12Z GFS tells me mean wind will reach E 59km/h
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Michael »

doesnt look much there yet,just a trough,maybe it will appear over the next 24 hours.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by NZstorm »

just a trough,maybe it will appear over the next 24 hours.
Theres a big jet stream through the North Tasman which will lead to the low development in the next 24hrs.
Sure looks increasingly likely that we are going to get a very strong easterly here on Sunday night.
Yes, we may get to gale force in Auckland overnight Sunday. Gales more possible over North Auckland region though.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by David »

Severe Weather Warning issued:
ISSUED BY MetService AT
10:34 am 03-Jul-2010

MEDIA

Heavy rain expected on Sunday for Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty.

A low is deepening over the north Tasman Sea. Its associated front is expected to move over Northland on Sunday preceded by northeast gales and a period of heavy rain. Around 80mm of rain is possible over parts of Northland in about 9 hours tomorrow and over the Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty overnight from Sunday to Monday.

People in these areas are advised to watch out for rapidly rising to streams and rivers and hazardous driving conditions.

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... r-warnings
Severe Weather Watch issued:
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND AUCKLAND WAIKATO COROMANDEL
PENINSULA

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1034hrs 03-Jul-2010

A low is deepening over the north Tasman Sea. Its associated front is
expected to move over Northland on Sunday preceded by northeast gales
and heavy rain. A heavy rainfall warning is in force for parts of
Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty.

Wind gusts of 100km/h are expected to develop ahead of the front over
Northland Sunday morning, spreading to Auckland and Coromandel
Peninsula in the afternoon and to Waikato in the lee of the Kaimai
Ranges in the evening or at night. It is possible the wind gusts will
be stronger and a watch is in force these areas for gusts 120km/h or
greater.


This Watch will be reviewed by 11am Sunday 4 July
Forecast prepared by: Erick Brenstrum

http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... ther-watch
Interesting they say NE gales. The models show the winds to be E tending SE eventually.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Michael »

1000 time BOM shows trough as 1015hpa,990 tomorrow,must be 1/2 a weather bomb according to BOM no pun intended :crazy:
needs 21 hpa??? to qualify
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by spwill »

I noticed a big cruise ship in Auckland today, I think it leaves for Brisbane tonight.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by David »

I can't understand why MS are saying NE for Auckland, all their models show an easterly :?
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Michael wrote:a weather bomb according to BOM no pun intended
....depends where it comes from. If From Brisbane could be a BOMB bomb 8-o :lol:


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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Michael »

Wednesdays looking quite suck at this time,on the entire metservice map,Auckland and one other area just NE of the hauraki gulf has 3&1/2 windroses even the southern ocean dont achieve it,hopefully it just doesnt move parallel down the eastcoast.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by NZstorm »

Is that two low pressure centres showing up in the satellite pic in the north Tasman currently. Also some elevated convection developing over the top of Northland.

GFS still indicating the Gisborne/Hawkes Bay regions will take the biggest rainfall hit. The Coromandel EW rain gauges could be interesting viewing also!
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Michael »

Strange these days we never get our rain from the NE plus the NE wind we used to get with it.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Fogged in again ;)

The Front over Northland looks good atm but it seems its dying :(
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by David »

It's like the calm before the storm....only gusting to 15km/h so far
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by CHCH Weather Chaser »

Looks like it is going to be awful conditions for the warriors match in Auckland this afternoon. The commentators said last week here at AMI Stadium that " here in the rain, mist and sleet". Ah commentators it was like 8 degrees still and a typical drizzle that the city has [-X Anyways maybe might get to watch some heavy rain in Auckland on TV later :lol:
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by spwill »

Looks like it is going to be awful conditions for the warriors match in Auckland this afternoon.
Not too bad currently, cloud cover but bright and a few rain spots,light winds,feels cold or atleast cold for us 11C.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Nev »

^11C? More like about 13C here and most other places around Ak at midday, including the airport.
Strong E'erlys out in the Gulf atm.

Not too often you see warnings in force for the Hauraki Gulf of E'erly and SE winds to 40 knots for this evening and tomorrow morn, albeit N of Whangaparaoa, with gusts to 50 knots for both of Akld's Harbours.

Our low's become pretty well organised today...
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

NZstorm wrote:
GFS still indicating the Gisborne/Hawkes Bay regions will take the biggest rainfall hit. The Coromandel EW rain gauges could be interesting viewing also!
Yep I think some those ranges could see 400mm over this entire event... if that happens that could cause significant flooding.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by David »

Still got a light breeze here, sure is taking its time moving down...
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by igaquo1 »

Sorry if asked before, but where did you get that sat pic from? thanks
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by DT-NZ »

Report from Hukerenui, strong gusty NE winds arrived here approx 20 mins ago, moderate to heavy rainfall, now only light drizzle out at moment - clouds are moving fast up there.

Did try to do a report earlier on this afternoon, however, everything is running slow on the internet - seems to be running faster now.
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by David »

Almost 5pm and still barely any wind - and to think I was expecting to break my record high gust today (61km/h) 0_o
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Nev »

igaquo1 wrote:Sorry if asked before, but where did you get that sat pic from? thanks
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Re: Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

Unread post by Nev »

David wrote:Almost 5pm and still barely any wind - and to think I was expecting to break my record high gust today (61km/h) 0_o
Sounds like you must in the lee the Coromandel/greater-landmass where you are David?
Mean E'erly winds of at least 52 km/h on the Waitemata and 74 km/h out at Tiritiri Lighthouse.

5mm of light rain here so this arvo. I see KerikeriWeather has had 47mm today.

P.S. That 13C around noon was fairly short-lived - back down to about 11C here now.
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