Sub-tropic low affecting North Island, July 3-8th

[Tornado Tim]

It seems the North island will be greeted by another low coming from the North Island around the 3rd to the 4th of July according to the GFS.
GFS seems be quite adamant of this setup as it hasn't changed much for the past two days.

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Forecasted precip amounts are higher in the Northern Waikato, Auckland, and Southern parts of Northland on the 4th of July and spread over the BOP overnight on the 4th and dump quite a bit there too.

Since this Low is forecasted to come from the north, its seems it will be dragging a fair bit of moist air from the tropics with it while having a cold upper air temp. This posses the risk for some T-storms but it seems at this stage they will be more likely showers with possible hail instead.

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This is still 4 days out or so but still something to keep an eye out on, especially because it has remained quite consistent in the models for the last few days.

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[Richard]

Yer looking more definite now during today's updates that something like whats showing up in the models will happen.
Great weather for the school holidays

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Last 3 or 4 GFS runs have backed precipitation right off for Canterbury next Monday,Tues, Wed. Looks like it was a fluke run yesterday morning. Could change again however.

[NZstorm]

Yes, looks like Sunday will be a wet one for Auckland. Too early to make predictions on convection, doesn't look great just now but that could change. We had a thunderless June in Auckland city, I'm hoping thats not repeated in July.

[Michael]

We havent really had the warmer air inspite of it being not cold,they seem to be "cold lows" also whats required is a good NE changing to an equally strong NW for thunder.

[Dale]

Might have been thunderless for you NZstorm but I have recorded 2 thunderdays for this month.. and yeah, going to be great for the holidays, not lol.

[spwill]

yeah, going to be great for the holidays, not lol.

Looks like Gisborne to Christchurch will have the worst of the weather next week with an onshore flow for much of next week. There has not been much in the way of wintry Southerlies ( polar)so far this winter, usually Dunedin would have had a low level snow fall by now .

[NZstorm]

Yes, I had noticed the SE flow, which could mean reasonable weather for Auckland next week.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looking once again less likely that this system early next week is going to affect Canterbury. GFS lastest run now showing 1.9mm for CHCH. So practially dry! Seems a high now to the south is holding the system further to the north so it cant get dragged south between the high in the Tasman and Pacific.

[NZstorm]

Could well be some flooding issues in the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne regions next week due to persistent rain.

[Razor]

Looking once again less likely that this system early next week is going to affect Canterbury. GFS lastest run now showing 1.9mm for CHCH. So practially dry! Seems a high now to the south is holding the system further to the north so it cant get dragged south between the high in the Tasman and Pacific.

This is excellent news.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Looking once again less likely that this system early next week is going to affect Canterbury. GFS lastest run now showing 1.9mm for CHCH. So practially dry! Seems a high now to the south is holding the system further to the north so it cant get dragged south between the high in the Tasman and Pacific.

This is excellent news.

Running consistant now. Latest GFS shows 2.0mm. Almost entirely the same.

[spwill]

The affect for Canterbury will be some light rain or drizzle tending to clear inland with morning fog.

[Razor]

Charts I've seen suggest its almost completely a north island system coming with the high pushing even further north. It would be great to keep the current sunshine for a good solid couple of weeks

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Blue skies in is agreement with the GFS as well going for just 1-3mm with snow to 400m for the system. So very much looks to be a non event. Yes it can change but the last few have backed each other up. However, due to the size and complexity anything can happen in the next few runs.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The affect for Canterbury will be some light rain or drizzle tending to clear inland with morning fog.

Oh No! Not back to the 'Clagg' again

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Michael]

yes it will be ENE or NE

The affect for Canterbury will be some light rain or drizzle tending to clear inland with morning fog.

Oh No! Not back to the 'Clagg' again

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Razor]

yes it will be ENE or NE
Oh No! Not back to the 'Clagg' again

JohnGaul
NZThS

[/quote]
And you dear sir.. well we wish you a long and vigorus season of Sw flow!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

yes it will be ENE or NE

Dunno, with 'Clagg' it is usually light WSW rubbish here

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Storm Struck]

Yes looks like the usual boring stuff for here the next week or so, although i dont mind days like today full on blue dome skies just wonderful.
My pick is that from the end of July and into August we will have some unsettled and stormy times ahead, maybe a snowfall equal to the 1992 one we had which brought 30cm to sea level in Christchurch.
Reason i say that is not just my prediction but many others have said a simular outlook, perhaps one of these northern lows will collide with a southerly blast soon enough.

[NZstorm]

perhaps one of these northern lows will collide with a southerly blast soon enough.

This is certainly the season for that to be a possibility.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

The affect for Canterbury will be some light rain or drizzle tending to clear inland with morning fog.

Oh No! Not back to the 'Clagg' again

JohnGaul
NZThS

Yeah if its going to rain, then rain. None of the misty nonsense. I saw your article in the Avenues Magazine John. My father (Gerard Thomas) said he went to school with you and you were in his class and he remembers your interest in trains! Small world!

Cold one tonight!

[David]

GFS has the wind reaching SE 29knots (54kmh) average over Auckland for this upcoming low...sounds a bit high

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I saw your article in the Avenues Magazine John. My father (Gerard Thomas) said he went to school with you and you were in his class and he remembers your interest in trains! Small world!

Cold one tonight!

Cor, that's going back a few years

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Talbotm]

Lets just hope the southerly undercuts the low from up north right around wellington just what i want to see. looking possible but not hopeful of low snow level but if it does there could be some good snow above about 700-800m round here i would think.