General July Weather

[Tim S]

Thats rather big, something to keep an eye on for next Sunday. Ofcourse will probably change but anyhow will be interesting to watch the progress of it.

I'm not liking the look of this, im running the taupo half marathon that day. Just hope it changes!

But if you look at this map??? they dont seem to reconcile!???

http://metservice.com/national/maps-rai ... future-72h

Looks as though now the low forecast for mid next week will be a lot worse for that region. Although why would they schedule the half-marathon smack bang in the middle of winter in Taupo? Can't imagine the weather would be too friendly up that way at that time of year? I've run two halves in my time and I can tell you they're hard enough in a Perth winter!

[Tornado Tim]

A side note for today, the GFS is going to get an upgrade:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... aa_gfs.txt

[vinodrinker]

Looks as though now the low forecast for mid next week will be a lot worse for that region. Although why would they schedule the half-marathon smack bang in the middle of winter in Taupo? Can't imagine the weather would be too friendly up that way at that time of year? I've run two halves in my time and I can tell you they're hard enough in a Perth winter!

Hmm looks now as though we will miss the bad stuff by a few hours. Should be cloudy with winds increasing from the north during the day. Yes running in taupo this time of year is a risk but you always dream of a cool, clear day with great views. the cold is good - overheating is avoided, its just too much rain makes for heavy shoes, chaffing, and just a miserable time. Too much wind makes for slow times.

http://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast1.ph ... zni&tim=84

[Tornado Tim]

Some afternoon showers with nice dark bases around this arvo

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[Storm Struck]

We almost had simular weather here today Tim, morning started out on a very light frost which was pushed away in getting any harder because of scatterd cloud from early morning.
Although unpredicted i did see this on one of the weather maps last night and thought we would either have fog or low cloud this morning.
Then from afternoon had some weak but rugged looking CU forms even doing a slight tower, i thought this wasnt bad considering it was meant to be a blue dome day.

[Thunder]

Hi Jason

Yes I was going to say earlier but couldn't load the forum properly in the afternoon. Some sorely missed cu in the skies today, nothing amazing but was nice to see! A little instability. Tim got more up in the Waikato for sure.

Cheers
Aaron

[03Stormchaser]

Then from afternoon had some weak but rugged looking CU forms even doing a slight tower, i thought this wasnt bad considering it was meant to be a blue dome day.

Signs of spring Cu if you ask me, nice to see after an English winter so far.

[Tornado Tim]

I dont know what it is about this Winter but I just have the feeling this will be a thundery spring coming up....

Clouds like the ones i posted above rarely occur this early in winter.

[tgsnoopy]

I dont know what it is about this Winter but I just have the feeling this will be a thundery spring coming up...

Oh I hope you are right.

[David]

The weather has become quite boring here, LOL
Just day after day of clouds and sun with odd shower here and there. At least some of the sunny periods have been long enough to enjoy though
Looks as if July's rain total will end up slightly below average (about 120mm in the manual gauge)

[Michael]

That fogs taking ages to clear would imagine the airport must be closed.

[spwill]

A mix of fine weather and Fog for Auckland this morning.

A sunny and drier than normal July for Auckland, temps close to the average, 2 light frosts.
It has been a gentle winter here in the sub tropical North.

[Nev]

Yes, July temps close to average at Akld Aero. However, NIWA's Mangere site looks to be about 0.5C cooler than normal this month.

Looks like the fog at the airport has finally begun to clear.

[David]

Yeah was quite foggy here this morning, but it cleared away after 10am

[spwill]

Cold air likes to get trapped over Timaru, still only 3.6C there.

Enjoying a sunny day here, 15C.

[Nev]

Here's NIWA's preliminary July 2010 National Climate Summary

A slightly cooler than normal month overall, but mostly very dry and sunny overall.
Lowest temp was -9.6°C recorded at NIWA's Hanmer Forest site.


A couple of repeated erroneous near-record min-temp claims made in the media a few weeks ago...

It states that the -6.7°C recorded at Dunedin Aero on the 12th was its 2nd-lowest July temp since 1947. Yet NIWA's own cliflo records show that Dunedin Aero has exceeded -6.7°C in July well over 40 times since records began in 1963, the lowest being -8.8°C in 2007.

It also states that the -7.2°C recorded at Queenstown Aero on the 12th was its 3rd-lowest July temp since 1871. Queenstown Aero exceeded that 6 times just in July 1995 alone, the lowest being -12.2°C. The township itself also recorded 2 days of -8.4°C and -8.0°C that month, and in July 1968 it recorded 3 days with temps down to between -7.6°C and -7.8°C.

[spwill]

with above average daytime temperatures offset by below average nighttime temperatures (both due to the predominance of clear skies).

I think at this time of year afternoon temperatures relate more to the origins of the air mass rather than daytime heating eg. currently 15C in Auckland with dull weather. Clear frosty mornings will often bring below average temps in afternoons despite clear skies. .

[RWood]

Here's NIWA's preliminary July 2010 National Climate Summary

A slightly cooler than normal month overall, but mostly very dry and sunny overall.

It should be noted that most of the sites with record or near-record high sunshine are EWSs. Since in nearly every case EWSs are recording significantly more than the older manual equipment at those sites, and only some of that can probably be attributed to improved exposure, those records need to be treated with some caution.

What is clear is that Auckland has a large YTD sunshine lead over both Wellington and Ch'ch, and it's highly likely that it will comfortably head off both places for the annual total this year, the first time that this has happened since the late 70s.

[spwill]

What is clear is that Auckland has a large YTD sunshine lead over both Wellington and Ch'ch, and it's highly likely that it will comfortably head off both places for the annual total this year, the first time that this has happened since the late 70s.

Interesting, there is only 40hrs difference in the annual average between the Cities
Aucklands average sunshine is higher than that of Wellington/Christchurch to the end of July but spring is cloudier here with the Westerlies.

[RWood]

Depends which Auckland average you use. For 1971-2000 it's 2102 for Ch'ch, 2066 for Wellington and 2015 for Mangere, 2044 for Auckland city (both the latter incomplete records so some correlation-fitting done). The more recent 30-year spans show significant increases for W'gton and Chch (to about 2095 and 2130, to 2009). Auckland numbers at Mangere (EWS) need a recalculation with a record gap, but will also be well up.

[TonyT]

There's certainly some perceptual issues with that data for Canterbury - talk to the locals here and they will tell you they found July to be a cloudy cold and wet month. Yet, the mean temp for Chch city is only -0.4 below normal which NIWA calls "near normal", the sunshine hours were bang on normal, and the rainfall was only a little above normal. The "normal" for July seems to have gone up quite a lot.

[RWood]

There's certainly some perceptual issues with that data for Canterbury - talk to the locals here and they will tell you they found July to be a cloudy cold and wet month. Yet, the mean temp for Chch city is only -0.4 below normal which NIWA calls "near normal", the sunshine hours were bang on normal, and the rainfall was only a little above normal. The "normal" for July seems to have gone up quite a lot.

Many people can only remember back one year - July 2009 had about 25 hours more sunshine, only half the average rainfall and fewer raindays. But the Julys of 2007 and 2008 didn't do all that well - both wetter and cloudier than average.