Tasman low 20-23rd July

[NZstorm]

Looking likely a low pressure system will develop in the mid Tasman this week which should bring rain to most areas mid to late week. Also looks like there should be some instability in behind the front over the NI due to cold upper air. And a cold outbreak could be on the cards behind the system at the weekend.

GFS output for midweek with 300mb jet in N Tasman.

[Twizel Dave]

That will be music to the ears of any one hoping for some interesting weather this winter because goodness knows we haven't had any yet and down in these parts if you haven't had it by now you probably won't have any at all!

This has been the nicest winter weather I can ever remember, with only 2 cold days which were -7 degrees or thereabout and the rest have barely made it down to -4! We have seen almost no snow at all save for one minor dunping in June which was gone in days.

My wife and I took some visitors up to the Ohau ski field and that was terribly disappointing for them due to the almost complete absence of snow but at least they have had fine weather because there's been nary a cloud in the sky for over a month.

If this is global warming in action I am all for it!

[spwill]

That will be music to the ears of any one hoping for some interesting weather this winter because goodness knows we haven't had any yet and down in these parts if you haven't had it by now you probably won't have any at all!
!

Perhaps some snow flurries for Twizel this week but you live in the wrong place for an interesting climate as far as stormy weather goes, very sheltered in that Mnt basin.
Lake Tekapo just up the road from you had a cold June, mean min -4.2C, mean max 4-7C, 4th lowest on record but they had a lot of snow cover.

[RWood]

The inland and western parts there had plenty of sunshine in June - 138 hrs at Tekapo, 130 at Franz Josef and 96 at Mt Cook - all above average.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

It has looked like a very good rainmaker for Canterbury and Blue skies have this with 20-50mm for two of the days next week. However, the 5pm GFS run shows a considerable backing off in this system for here. Hopefully it changes around and will have to in the next two runs as it is only a couple of days out.

[Tornado Tim]

Nice amount of CAPE in the forecast atm, particularly when the low passes over
No doubt it will change

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[tgsnoopy]

Nice amount of CAPE in the forecast atm, particularly when the low passes over
No doubt it will change

Nice, fingers crossed it doesn't.

(edit to correct formatting error)

[Razor]

That will be music to the ears of any one hoping for some interesting weather this winter because goodness knows we haven't had any yet and down in these parts if you haven't had it by now you probably won't have any at all!
!

Perhaps some snow flurries for Twizel this week but you live in the wrong place for an interesting climate as far as stormy weather goes, very sheltered in that Mnt basin.
Lake Tekapo just up the road from you had a cold June, mean min -4.2C, mean max 4-7C, 4th lowest on record but they had a lot of snow cover.

Yes I can assure you Lake Tekapo and lowland areas around Glenmore, Braemar, Two Thumbs Ranges etc are having a long cold spell, snow on the ground for several weeks.

[Twizel Dave]

Having travelled to or through Lake Tekapo at least one day a week for the last month or 2 I can say that it hasn't been anywhere near as cold as usual there this winter and the snow they had is nothing out of the ordinary either. It has been a wonderfully wild winter! I remember spring and autumn seasons in years gone by that were harsher than this year's winter! And I am not complaining because the older I get the less I will enjoy the types of winters we used to get down here.

[spwill]

Yes I can assure you Lake Tekapo and lowland areas around Glenmore, Braemar, Two Thumbs Ranges etc are having a long cold spell, snow on the ground for several weeks

Yes, early season snow falls have been followed by a long spell of frosty weather preserving the snow, the higher parts of the Maniototo ( Naseby to the Ida valley) have also had an unusually long period of snow cover, down to about 500m.

[melja]

It has looked like a very good rainmaker for Canterbury and Blue skies have this with 20-50mm for two of the days next week. However, the 5pm GFS run shows a considerable backing off in this system for here. Hopefully it changes around and will have to in the next two runs as it is only a couple of days out.

Why do you want it to rain? had more than enough of that dam stuff.
Model run will allways back of the closer they get to the event, so get use to it and factor this in when thinking about the up coming events.

[Richard]

It has looked like a very good rainmaker for Canterbury and Blue skies have this with 20-50mm for two of the days next week. However, the 5pm GFS run shows a considerable backing off in this system for here. Hopefully it changes around and will have to in the next two runs as it is only a couple of days out.

Why do you want it to rain? had more than enough of that dam stuff.
Model run will allways back of the closer they get to the event, so get use to it and factor this in when thinking about the up coming events.

But does CHCH Weather Chaser say he wants to rain again??
To me the term "a good rainmaker" means one that brings lots of rain,a poor rain maker is a weather event that provides little,but thats all ,isnt??

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

I could put this into the general july thread but decided to put it in this one as it is the 20th and the prefrontal part of the incoming system for this region. At the moment outside it is a fine morning with high cloud and a drak Northwest Arch present.

[Razor]

I can categorically request on behalf of the vast majority of ChCh folk...WE DO NOT WANT MORE RAIN.

[Michael]

You "only" had 375.8mm ytd according to the herald,we had 100mm more ytd let alone Wellington has had almost double of Chch.

I can categorically request on behalf of the vast majority of ChCh folk...WE DO NOT WANT MORE RAIN.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

You "only" had 375.8mm ytd according to the herald,we had 100mm more ytd let alone Wellington has had almost double of Chch.

I can categorically request on behalf of the vast majority of ChCh folk...WE DO NOT WANT MORE RAIN.

Bare in mind though that half way through may we had only had 98mm ytd. Was a very wet second half of may and june and people liek Razor and I tend to get more persistent drizzle than the airport does living in the eastern suburbs here in Christchurch so we have probably had more than what the airport has had. I can say that surface water still sits on the paddocks around the surrouding areas. Also, sunshine hours, im not too sure about but in June we had very little sunshine with many low cloud days that brought no precipitation. It has been a dry July though so far but any rain that does fall will quickly become surface water on grass paddocks as the water table is still very high.

[Razor]

You "only" had 375.8mm ytd according to the herald,we had 100mm more ytd let alone Wellington has had almost double of Chch.

I can categorically request on behalf of the vast majority of ChCh folk...WE DO NOT WANT MORE RAIN.

Yes Michael- there in lies a compelling case not to live in Wellingotn or Auckland

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Interesting Canterbury rural forecast put out to keep an eye on for the next few days.

[Manukau heads obs]

could be some strong NW winds here on thursday by the looks with that new low forming

[spwill]

You "only" had 375.8mm ytd according to the herald,we had 100mm more ytd let alone Wellington has had almost double of Chch.

I can categorically request on behalf of the vast majority of ChCh folk...WE DO NOT WANT MORE RAIN.

Warmer rain is more tolerable and it has been sunnier up here.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Been a southwesterly here for about an hour or so. Cloud is gradually getting thicker and lower. Should see occassional rain in the next half hour to hour.

[Razor]

No rain in sight here so far (Central ChCh), just light overcast and a cool breeze. Just spent the last hour running round Hagley Park, ideal conditions to have a gallop in.

[Michael]

Mild here 16c and no rain today but the altostratus cover remains.maybe a smidgen of sun hopefully before it sets.

[snowstormwatcher]

Light rain has arrived here in the last hour only 1mm so far. Interesting that metservice have put out road snowfall warnings for 20 to 30 cm for porters pass toinight and forcasting snow above 300m on friday and saturday for canterbury. I cant see it really eventuating at this stage.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

No idea what happened to the rain that was meant to "set in". Didnt even cover the ground. Razors prayers must have paid off.

I wouldnt be surprised if Blue skies downgrade there forecast watch of 20-50mm for 3 consecutive days tomorrow. 3 day maps suggest that it should be mainly dry now until Thursday afternoon infact.