Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

With a high set to sit over south Australia it looks like a dominant W-SW flow with several fronts and lows lining us up.
Saturday night looks like a mild night for once with gale force Northerlies developing, maybe sitting on 12-14C at midnight not sure about an overnight low if a SWer comes through later on.
This will certainly make a change from the lows coming down from the north, might help to dry out the grounds around here.
We can change the topic name once we get into the pattern.
Last edited by Storm Struck on Fri 30/07/2010 16:38, edited 1 time in total.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, as I said on another topic, there could be another "Big Blow" on August the 1st 8-o

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Michael »

Hopefully with the milder pattern we can go through the spring transition period quickly and maybe have an easterly or la nina type summer.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by spwill »

Jasestorm wrote:With a high set to sit over south Australia
A slow moving High to the east of NZ should keep the cold air off NZ so a mild week . Generally wet west /mostly dry east.


Michael wrote,
maybe have an easterly or la nina type summer.
You would think an early Spring this year due to La nina with easterlies reaching northern NZ in November due to early season troughing to our north
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Richard »

Hoping for spill over sheet lightning early Sat morning which this area is well over due for,been over 12 months since the last nighttime only event.
melja
Posts: 2202
Joined: Sun 11/06/2006 20:57
Location: Waikawa, Picton
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 74 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by melja »

NW lightning storms allways happen up your way at night :-k makes for good viewing tho.
User avatar
Richard
Posts: 8369
Joined: Tue 14/07/2009 07:32
Location: Medbury, Inland North Canterbury
Has thanked: 1656 times
Been thanked: 800 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Richard »

Only seems to happen about once a year when the West coast is experiencing an active electrical storm.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I thought that, this year, May would be an active time for lightning along the West Coast resulting with alpine displays viewed from Canterbury and other places along the eastern side of the Alps.
I was wrong, but, now, it looks like August could develop a few sparks or two along the Alps. I hope so <3

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Could quite well be an active month especially for the west coast of both islands, maybe even the odd thunderstorm chance out east as its not uncommon in August.
I think this month will be our stormiest with more chunkier systems coming through instead of the stationary low systems we have had through June and July which have really only crossed dumping alot of rain and not much in the way of big winds.
Maybe a high of 17-18C for Saturday in Canterbury, i know there is snow on the mountains and that will cool the NWer down abit but the snow isnt as low as it normally is for this time of year.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by NZstorm »

Hoping for spill over sheet lightning
Current indications are there won't be any lightning. But I've only used Hokitika data to come up with that conclusion.
The airmass flowing into Westland looks like it won't be unstable enough for thunderstorms to be triggered.
User avatar
Lukemyster
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun 03/01/2010 14:26
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Lukemyster »

Confidence now high for Canterbury
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by NZstorm »

Gfs brings some cold upper air onto the West Coast at the weekend so I take back my previous post about no instability. Sundays 500mb temps now -23C which should give the lapse rates for thunder. I seldom try and forecast West Coast weather.

As for Auckland looks like some mild conditions next week as we get stuck in a northerly flow for a few days with dps 14C.
Will help my new lawn to grow, which has only just sprouted.
Razor
Moderator
Posts: 5121
Joined: Fri 10/02/2006 15:14
Location: Halswell, Christchurch
Has thanked: 717 times
Been thanked: 923 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by Razor »

Its looking like a nasty event on Sunday....wouldn't want to be tramping in the Southern Alps!
Christchurch Rocks
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

I have renamed the topic as i said i would, we are now close enough to this weekends low system to get a feel of what its likly to bring and MS has warnings out now.
250-300mm likly for the Alps and West Coast and severe NW gales gusting 130kmh at times in exposed places for Canterbury and Marlborough especially from Sunday morning and into early Monday morning.
Should be looking at a high of around 16-17C both Saturday and Sunday meaning the overnight low on Saturday will be in double figures for sure.
It was looking like a continuing westerly pattern into next week but now its looking more stationary with shallower lows moving across the country in a more N-NE flow.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

It seems there may be an incoming deluge of lows in the forecast coming up in the week ahead!
West coast of the SI will be by far the worst out of these events it seems.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

NZstorm wrote:
Current indications are there won't be any lightning. But I've only used Hokitika data to come up with that conclusion.

Yes. Sadly due to today's contrails that look obvious :(
...but lotsa rain.

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
User avatar
Lukemyster
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun 03/01/2010 14:26
Location: Christchurch
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Lukemyster »

Jasestorm wrote:severe NW gales gusting 130kmh at times in exposed places for Canterbury and Marlborough especially from Sunday morning and into early Monday morning.
.
Pretty keen for some 29 spotting :D , hasnt been active for awhile.
Image
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: The roaring westerlies from the 31st...

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote: As for Auckland looks like some mild conditions next week as we get stuck in a northerly flow for a few days with dps 14C.
Will help my new lawn to grow, which has only just sprouted.
Just has a look at GFS, has the DP getting up to 15 and around 70mm of rain too (over several days), not looking like much instability for here though
Image
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by NZstorm »

not looking like much instability for here though
The lack of thunder over northern/western areas this winter is for the same reason there has been no snow in Dunedin - a lack of cold air advection onto NZ. This is of course due to La Nina. This non thundery trend is likely to run into our spring IMO. I have hopes for the summer storm season with humid conditions likely.

This next trough is certainly looking a wet one for the north with a stalled front.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Michael »

Looks as if its stalls and then moves south,means the north island looks like an Ipod on tuesday.
User avatar
David
Posts: 7578
Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
Location: Howick, Auckland
Has thanked: 416 times
Been thanked: 825 times
Contact:

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:This next trough is certainly looking a wet one for the north with a stalled front.
Indeed, GFS now has 100mm for Auckland, peaking in intensity on Tuesday 3rd.
Image
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by jamie »

I fly to Chch on Sunday evening. Hoping to fly into some gale force winds. Down there all week for work.
Andy
Posts: 1424
Joined: Tue 27/05/2003 14:15
Location: Alexandra
Has thanked: 131 times
Been thanked: 63 times

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Andy »

Starting to blow here temp 13.7 wind speed 40-50kph.
Dean.
Posts: 1710
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:29
Location: Ashburton
Has thanked: 425 times
Been thanked: 525 times

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Dean. »

Northwest picking up here as well,16 degrees
User avatar
Storm Struck
Posts: 4859
Joined: Wed 17/11/2004 21:25
Location: Belfast Christchurch
Has thanked: 23 times
Been thanked: 373 times

Re: Deep Low to start early August then an unsettled pattern!!

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Fresh gusty northerly here and gone up to 14C from 11C an hour ago, that because the sun came out.
Scrappy high cloud all day but more broken up with a thicker strip to the west now, maybe a few spots of rain mixed in there too.
Should be a mild night for once :mrgreen:
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
Locked