Heavy Rain/ Snow South Island 7-9 August

[Razor]

I know this is on another thread too, but it looks like a possible 'event' now rather than just General Weather- and its only 3 days out.

various charts suggesting heavy rain and sleet, snow to 300m and possibly lower on Sunday

One site I look at that seems to do a reasonable job of predictions, although worringly usually predicts it to be warmer than reality, has gone for serious snow....http://freemeteo.com/default.asp?pid=15 ... 92362&la=1


The Aussies are going to keel over in that

[gllitz]

You're not one normally to come on here and predict snow, Razor!
But, the latest GFS has the precip coming in later on SAT night and well and truly into Sunday...could be significant, who knows...

All I know is that this weekend I will be taking the wife and kids to the snow...Castle Hill FRI/SAT night and Porters during the day SAT for skiing. Here's hoping the weather holds til we come DOWN from the mountain
The kids would probably pee their pants if they got snowed in on Sunday!
(I won't, but will take lots of pics!!...not of the kids peeing their pants, but of the snow, should we get any!)

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Latest GFS showing 77mm from Sat to early Monday. How are you seeing it Glen for snow, your often the expert on that I personally think it is looking too warm and maybe snow to as low as 400m if we are lucky at this point in time but who knows I guess.

[gllitz]

Latest GFS showing 77mm from Sat to early Monday. How are you seeing it Glen for snow, your often the expert on that I personally think it is looking too warm and maybe snow to as low as 400m if we are lucky at this point in time but who knows I guess.

I've practically given up predicting snow around here...and I am no expert...I'll leave that one to the real experts (Tony T and M/S, etc)

Could be a good setup for a warm advective event for inland parts of Canty, though!

[Richard]

I've practically given up predicting snow around here...and I am no expert...I'll leave that one to the real experts (Tony T and M/S, etc)

Could be a good setup for a warm advective event for inland parts of Canty, though!

Yer i think you are right as its looking at this stage more likely to be a SE event,so often CHCH tends to miss out on the worse during such a weather event,at least this test wont be played in snow i think, as snow doesn't fall to sea level on a SE

[Razor]

I've just got a feeling about this event- not necc for ChCh though- the Peninsula effect and all that... but it could be all on elsewhere

[melja]

Looks like the air on sat,sun comes from the north and its not until monday that the air comes from the south and by this time precip is well down as is often the case because cold air is dry
Im thinking the rain will hold off till after the game and it will be around 8C with maybe even wind from the north across the top of the low.

[Storm Struck]

The colder air starts to come in Sunday Afternoon on a more S-SE flow before turning more southerly overnight, the precipitation from what i can see is good and could well increase when the southerly gets going.
Snow to 200-300m especially inland from sunday afternoon with some good steady falls likly, then perhaps the chance for a period of snow to even lower levels im not going to say sea level yet as its a few days out.
But yeah on early monday morning with that southerly, is this the storm we have been waiting for all winter or is this beast on the link below another to watch .
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/in ... 2&focus=mh
Dont often see the lows that deep over NSW 992hpa there which would likly deepen as it headed across the Tasman, but thats along way out anyways.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm off to Moonshine this WE (Upper Hutt) so will missout on the wintry stuff. Hope nothing much of an event will happen here for me to miss out on. Supposed to be wet this WE in the Wellington region.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

This system doesnt know what it is doing. The main rain now looks around Eastern Otago on the GFS with not a lot for Canterbury.

[Razor]

Yes models showing volatility. Its backed off from 81mm to 22mm for ChCh now

[spwill]

AllBlacks to win 6-3

[gllitz]

Jeepers!! The GFS has flopped again...LOTS more precip for CHCH, anyway, and more importantly, for Castle Hill, where I will be! The term DUMPING comes to mind...any bets as to how many times it will change between now and SAT/SUN?!?

[sentastorm]

I have just about lost all hope for snow in Christchurch this winter.

we most likely just get rain from this system

[Razor]

yes just looked at Metvuw and went wow!

[melja]

Maybe a south canterbury event again
Looks like a flooding event to me with rain as it just looks far to warm for snow down on the flat.
I dont like the sound of another 90mm of rain here at all.

[snowstormwatcher]

Metserivce forcasting snow to 300m in canterbury from saturday night through to monday could see some snow here if it gets cold enough but im thinking most of the snow will fall above 400m.

[gllitz]

Which is fine by me, being in Castle Hill and all! W00T!!!

[Richard]

Which is fine by me, being in Castle Hill and all! W00T!!!

Should get truck loads up there,dont forget ya camera

snowstormwatcher- how high is Fairlie above sea level??

[snowstormwatcher]

The lowest part is 295m and the highest part 310m.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I say the All whites will win by a few points

JohnGaul
NZthS

[Michael]

Doesnt look much there just another top o' the north island thing,unfortunately dont really care about the rugby.

[Razor]

This is shaping up as a really nasty little event for Canterbury farmers...get your stock in the right places folks
I have never seen this website roll out with this before....114mm of rain and about 85% of that sleet or snow. Gulp!

http://freemeteo.com/default.asp?pid=15 ... 92362&la=1

[Richard]

This is shaping up as a really nasty little event for Canterbury farmers...get your stock in the right places folks

It is and looking to hit a bit further north now than it looked around mid day

[Razor]

It will be fascinating to see how the models shape up tomorrow, Sunday could be a cracker for snow chasers especially those up high
Its a clear as a whistle here tonight for the first time in a few days too, could nudge a frost