Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Still a few days away but I like the look of the upper level temperatures on the gfs.
500mb temperature forecast chart Wednesday.
500mb temperature forecast chart Wednesday.
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- NZstorm
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
As usual subsequent model runs are not as cold aloft! But this system is a typical winter system, weak on instability but strong on dynamics. Looks like a front late Tuesday has the potential to be lightning active with Taranaki/Waitomo possibly the regions most affected.
- Richard
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
and looking rather cold and wet again in the east of the SI as well.
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Next GFS round has got the thunder/hail back into the forecast
Man I miss hail, havnt had it in a while.....
500mb forecasted temperature dipping into -27°C
Man I miss hail, havnt had it in a while.....
500mb forecasted temperature dipping into -27°C
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- NZstorm
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
I am hoping daytime heating on Wednesday can tweak the instability a bit higher given the low level flow will be NW.
Is that wishful thinking in mid August! Overall this looks a good early spring instability set up, just have see how it pans out.
Is that wishful thinking in mid August! Overall this looks a good early spring instability set up, just have see how it pans out.
- Richard
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Hate the stuff,no good if you are a gardenerTornado Tim wrote:Next GFS round has got the thunder/hail back into the forecast
Man I miss hail, havnt had it in a while.....
500mb forecasted temperature dipping into -27°C
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite ... nc=3&lyf=1
The cold showery pool over Tasmania currently , particularly cold air passing over them with snow probably below 300m today.
The cold showery pool over Tasmania currently , particularly cold air passing over them with snow probably below 300m today.
- Storm Struck
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Will this be the topic for Wednesdays system over the country or is this just for the NI? perhaps a change in topic name as a cold wintry blast looks set to sweep up over the whole country.
I am picking snow to 300m in canterbury on Wednesday with models throwing out some reasonable rainfall totals for Canterbury, and down to around 200m by Thursday morning when the less rainfall is around .
THK levels around down to about 528 by Thursday morning from what i can see, so possibly once again our typical wintry showers by then with sleet and hail.
Scatterd rain on Wednesday though, its a pitty there's no daytime heating as the front arrives too early otherwise could have been a very slight thunder risk.
I am picking snow to 300m in canterbury on Wednesday with models throwing out some reasonable rainfall totals for Canterbury, and down to around 200m by Thursday morning when the less rainfall is around .
THK levels around down to about 528 by Thursday morning from what i can see, so possibly once again our typical wintry showers by then with sleet and hail.
Scatterd rain on Wednesday though, its a pitty there's no daytime heating as the front arrives too early otherwise could have been a very slight thunder risk.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
- Dale
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Got down to 250m there spwill, had a mate attempt to head up Cradle Mtn but only got as far as 600m before he had to turn back sans chains.. imgaine it right up the top 1200+.. sonde showed it well, 850hpa -5º, 750hpa -15º and 500hpa a snorter at -34º.. sleet down to 250m in Victoria as well & yesterday morning early hail in Sydney.
Dont like the cold, you mainlanders can have it all but even im impressed with those numbers!
Dont like the cold, you mainlanders can have it all but even im impressed with those numbers!
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
That's nice.
Could be really cold after the wramth of tomorrows pre winter surplace flows. The 550hPa indicates the return of pre-spring wintry conditions that could accumulate lots of wet moisture on the ground that could lead to alot od progressive mushroom growth on sunny but sheltered areas.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Could be really cold after the wramth of tomorrows pre winter surplace flows. The 550hPa indicates the return of pre-spring wintry conditions that could accumulate lots of wet moisture on the ground that could lead to alot od progressive mushroom growth on sunny but sheltered areas.
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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NZThS
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Some heavy showers /thunderstorms have been developing just west of the NI, west coast south of Auckland is in the firing line
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Yes, some pretty beefy looking showers moving into the west, south of Auckland. Lightning activity looks to have weakened.
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Main shower line has run onto land.NZstorm wrote: Lightning activity looks to have weakened
Looking unstable out in the Tasman tonight
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!
Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage
Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage
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- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!Tornado Tim wrote:The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!
Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
You lucky b'stardTornado Tim wrote:My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!Tornado Tim wrote:
Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage
JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
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- Dale
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Some pretty meaty showers came through from around 1500-1730, nice low rolling bases but no thunder, was expecting some however.
Lucky for some
Lucky for some
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
An unstable sounding for tomorrow
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
yep i was out in the thick of it all tonight. lightning was rather close for comfort too.
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Didn't think I'd ever hear you say that Jamie! how close?
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
haha no no i wasnt scared. just made me think jeepers we are pretty close to this. was about 1.5 secs between the two. enough time for me to think "wow cool lightning" then BOOM!
- tgsnoopy
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Oh, I got a solitary clap about 20 minutes ago Please let this be the start of a good spring season. Showers have passed now, was quite heavy for a little while.Tornado Tim wrote:My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!Tornado Tim wrote:The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!
Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage
- Vertigo
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Just observed s CB with supercelllular characteristics. Have pic but can't upload yet. It was over the north shore
- tgsnoopy
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Re: Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?
Interesting to observe the instability seems to exclude Tauranga. I see that all too often.