Thunder/hail mid week 17th-18th August?

[NZstorm]

Still a few days away but I like the look of the upper level temperatures on the gfs.

500mb temperature forecast chart Wednesday.

[NZstorm]

As usual subsequent model runs are not as cold aloft! But this system is a typical winter system, weak on instability but strong on dynamics. Looks like a front late Tuesday has the potential to be lightning active with Taranaki/Waitomo possibly the regions most affected.

[Richard]

and looking rather cold and wet again in the east of the SI as well.

[Tornado Tim]

Next GFS round has got the thunder/hail back into the forecast
Man I miss hail, havnt had it in a while.....

500mb forecasted temperature dipping into -27°C

[NZstorm]

I am hoping daytime heating on Wednesday can tweak the instability a bit higher given the low level flow will be NW.
Is that wishful thinking in mid August! Overall this looks a good early spring instability set up, just have see how it pans out.

[Richard]

Next GFS round has got the thunder/hail back into the forecast
Man I miss hail, havnt had it in a while.....

500mb forecasted temperature dipping into -27°C

Hate the stuff,no good if you are a gardener

[spwill]

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite ... nc=3&lyf=1
The cold showery pool over Tasmania currently , particularly cold air passing over them with snow probably below 300m today.

[Storm Struck]

Will this be the topic for Wednesdays system over the country or is this just for the NI? perhaps a change in topic name as a cold wintry blast looks set to sweep up over the whole country.
I am picking snow to 300m in canterbury on Wednesday with models throwing out some reasonable rainfall totals for Canterbury, and down to around 200m by Thursday morning when the less rainfall is around .
THK levels around down to about 528 by Thursday morning from what i can see, so possibly once again our typical wintry showers by then with sleet and hail.
Scatterd rain on Wednesday though, its a pitty there's no daytime heating as the front arrives too early otherwise could have been a very slight thunder risk.

[Dale]

Got down to 250m there spwill, had a mate attempt to head up Cradle Mtn but only got as far as 600m before he had to turn back sans chains.. imgaine it right up the top 1200+.. sonde showed it well, 850hpa -5º, 750hpa -15º and 500hpa a snorter at -34º.. sleet down to 250m in Victoria as well & yesterday morning early hail in Sydney.

Dont like the cold, you mainlanders can have it all but even im impressed with those numbers!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

That's nice.

Could be really cold after the wramth of tomorrows pre winter surplace flows. The 550hPa indicates the return of pre-spring wintry conditions that could accumulate lots of wet moisture on the ground that could lead to alot od progressive mushroom growth on sunny but sheltered areas.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[spwill]

Some heavy showers /thunderstorms have been developing just west of the NI, west coast south of Auckland is in the firing line

[NZstorm]

Yes, some pretty beefy looking showers moving into the west, south of Auckland. Lightning activity looks to have weakened.

[spwill]

Lightning activity looks to have weakened

Main shower line has run onto land.
Looking unstable out in the Tasman tonight

[Tornado Tim]

The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!

Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage

[Tornado Tim]

The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!

Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage

My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage

My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!

You lucky b'stard

JohnGaul
NZThS

[Dale]

Some pretty meaty showers came through from around 1500-1730, nice low rolling bases but no thunder, was expecting some however.

Lucky for some

[Tornado Tim]

An unstable sounding for tomorrow

Screen shot 2010-08-17 at 9.15.24 PM.png

[jamie]

yep i was out in the thick of it all tonight. lightning was rather close for comfort too.

[ricky]

Didn't think I'd ever hear you say that Jamie! how close?

[jamie]

haha no no i wasnt scared. just made me think jeepers we are pretty close to this. was about 1.5 secs between the two. enough time for me to think "wow cool lightning" then BOOM!

[tgsnoopy]

The heavy showers are now moving into the North/central waikato it seems, hopefully it will give out some lightning!

Update: Heavy Showers started to hit now, got up to 45mm/hr at 1 stage

My wish has been granted! Thunder!!!!!

Oh, I got a solitary clap about 20 minutes ago Please let this be the start of a good spring season. Showers have passed now, was quite heavy for a little while.

[spwill]

Some thunder for Northland, north of Dargaville.

[Vertigo]

Just observed s CB with supercelllular characteristics. Have pic but can't upload yet. It was over the north shore

[tgsnoopy]

Interesting to observe the instability seems to exclude Tauranga. I see that all too often.