High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

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Tornado Tim
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Even though M/S has a zilch risk for t-storms I have to disagree with that,
My forecasting suite has thunderstorms forecast and the GFS has a nice cold pool crossing the Waikato into the BOP, cloud is less and as a result higher temps are forecast compared to today.

Today Waikato had a problem with the surface temperatures, more storms would have developed if the sun was out more. (this was evident in previous GFS run's and I made a mention of the temps being a little too low)

The thing is we had a high amount of general showers which made the surface temps go down as they passed by.
Heating wasn't applied for a decent amount of time to have a difference.

Tomorrow the situation seems way better (in terms of the temperature and cloud cover).

I have attached a GFS chart for your refrence:
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Don't be too impatient, Tim. :|
Wait and see. At least you jokers got some thunderstorms whereas we had to put up with grey skies and boring drizzle. :-S

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Tornado Tim
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Don't be too impatient, Tim. :|
Wait and see. At least you jokers got some thunderstorms whereas we had to put up with grey skies and boring drizzle. :-S
Im not impatient, LOL hahaha :mrgreen: ;)

If your sick of grey skies come over here for a while, LOL

It might help your thunder drought! :lol:
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZstorm »

Even though M/S has a zilch risk for t-storms I have to disagree with that,
I had noticed the instability there Tim and wondered about the ts risk there. GFS shows some weak forcing along the kaimais/southern Coromandel ranges so some cb showers developing there. I think if there is any lightning it will be more into the western BOP. I would have to rate the ts risk as low at this stage. But we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Last edited by NZstorm on Sun 29/08/2010 20:19, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by spwill »

More small hail here this evening, mixed in the rain.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by kaimaikid »

Here is what it looked like @ 1525, sadly it fell apart by the time it got to me...
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Tornado Tim wrote:
It might help your thunder drought! :lol:
We have had thunder twice on the plains this Month, just none of it very chase-able!
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yeah the odd clap here and there, to be expected for august though in canterbury but great none the less.
Proper chances start booting in around mid October, or will they be earlier this year :-k whats that i see at the end of this week :-$ .
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Towering Cumulus going up and a CB Incus visible to the WSW :)
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Weetbicks »

Things are looking quite dark out to the NW of Chch city right now. There has been some nice big CU over town all morning but nothing has really come of it.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Richard »

I was thinking the same thing too,but i just dont think there's much in them other an some heavy showers that fall out this way this afternoon.
Man that sky is looking threatening now though.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by tich »

Raining again out on Banks Peninsula from about an hour 1/2 ago, after a partial clearance from midmorning.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by jamie »

Few pics from the last two days. crappy images off my cell phone.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

They're not crapppy, some good on the spot, shots, there, Jamie :smile:

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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, some interesting pics, the last one would have been taken today. Jim Hickey showed a similar shot from Raglan way today.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Weetbicks »

I think the "crappy" was probably more in reference to cell phone photo quality than just bad pictures - tho the quality isn't that bad on some of them.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by jamie »

yea the last one was taken on monday. was such a nice day.

yea the crappy was in reference to the picture quality.
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