High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

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David
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Possible thunderstorms late August

Unread post by David »

Seems parts of the country might get some thunderstorms over the next few days - the west of the South Island today and then the North Island tomorrow:
The low should move onto Waikato at night. Bands of heavy showers are expected over the northern and central North Island and there is a moderate to high risk of isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy rain 10 to 15mm/hr and hail 5 to 15mm diameter during the afternoon and evening. There could also be gusts of 70-90km/hr north of Auckland city.
A trough is forecast to form over Hawkes Bay in the afternoon and evening. This
could also trigger a few thunderstorms in the vicinity with localised heavy rain
and hail 5-15mm diameter (see chart). The risk of isolated thunderstorms is
lower in further north in the Gisborne region during the afternoon and further
south to Wairarapa, across the Ruahine ranges to northern Manawatu Wanganui and
Golden Bay in the afternoon and early evening.
No other thunderstorms forecast.
http://metservice.com/national/warnings ... rm-outlook
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High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

M/S has posted a High Risk of isolated thunderstorms for tomorrow. \:D/

Lifted Indices are hovering around 0 to -2 for most of the NI tomorrow.

Here is extract from the T-storm Outlook from M/S:
756c-12ab747f300-12abdb7e600-12ab5da373e.0.png
Valid to: 12:00am Monday 30 August 2010
Issued at: 11:20am Saturday 28 August 2010

The low should move onto Waikato at night. Bands of heavy showers are expected over the northern and central North Island and there is a moderate to high risk of isolated thunderstorms with brief heavy rain 10 to 15mm/hr and hail 5 to 15mm diameter during the afternoon and evening. There could also be gusts of 70-90km/hr north of Auckland city.
A trough is forecast to form over Hawkes Bay in the afternoon and evening. This
could also trigger a few thunderstorms in the vicinity with localised heavy rain
and hail 5-15mm diameter (see chart). The risk of isolated thunderstorms is
lower in further north in the Gisborne region during the afternoon and further
south to Wairarapa, across the Ruahine ranges to northern Manawatu Wanganui and
Golden Bay in the afternoon and early evening.
No other thunderstorms forecast.
There is unstable sounding forecast for most of the NI tomorrow but the only thing that might hinder things is the surface temp.
Screen shot 2010-08-28 at 11.28.36 AM.png
Will have to see how things start off tomorrow i think.

If things are good enough i will be out for a chase in the black beast, Jamie or anyone else keen?
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by spwill »

M/S has posted a High Risk of isolated thunderstorms for tomorrow.
Should high risk be used on a day when only isolated storms are expected, the chance of thunder at a given location being very small.
i will be out for a chase
I will head out tomorrow if the day looks okay, see what the morning brings.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by David »

Woops, I just posted a thread 2 mins earlier.... :lol: :smile:
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by jamie »

yep keen if its looking good
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZstorm »

Should high risk be used on a day when only isolated storms are expected, the chance of thunder at a given location being very small.
I tend to agree. The graphic and the text are a bit contradictory.

I quite like the SPC and Estofex graphics in that they are based on expected coverage.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Philip Duncan »

I see they've dropped it to moderate now. Agree with you too spwill
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Area51 »

Plenty of lightning and thunder about South Auckland between 4 and 5 this morning.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes distant thunder to W/SW early morn. We missed the rain here.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by GraemeWi »

We had loud but infrequent thunder in Henderson around 4am, some rain as well but not really heavy
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by jamie »

boy did it rain through the night. had a great view of a building Cb in the twighlight this morning.

looks like the next line is very close too. should be a goodie by the looks
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Dale »

I knew it rained sometime during the morning, it was enough to wake me up. No idea what time it was but I dont recall hearing any thunder or seeing any flashy stuff.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Michael »

Need some daytime heating otherwise dont think be much activity today.It was raining here well before dusk yesterday but probably in the late(early) hours again.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

great thunderstorm here at 4am ish
knocked out my internet access.....posting this from the local school
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Michael »

Never heard a thing lastnight,slept through it.Maybe going deaf
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by David »

Nothing here, but not really expecting anything anyway
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by spwill »

Manukau heads obs wrote:great thunderstorm here at 4am ish
Noticed those storms comming into the west around 3.30am on my way home from a birthday party, too tired to stay up for photos.
Nice morning here currently, Cb and Cu to the south
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Got woken up at 4 AM because of the rain, up to 144mm/hr at one point :D
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by dan »

Long time no post.. just had a massive shower here in Hamilton, long rolling thunder and hail mixed in with the rain.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

There is a very nice Cb to my North now! Looks like it has big hail shaft.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by jamie »

lost count of thunder here at Horshamdowns. Seen 1 CG and heaps of IC. had a back building anvil cloud before. Nice storm really. nice structure and such. my camera is at my flat sadly in hamilton so ive taken a few snaps with my phone and will upload them this arvo. sun shining now as the strom moves away. all this heating will help the next round!
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Ricky are you chasing today?
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Sferics are going mad atm :)
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by spwill »

Thunder here just now, brewing clouds to our west.
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Re: High Risk Thunderstorms, Sunday 29th August

Unread post by GraemeWi »

Some thunder and small hail, heavy rain here in Henderson
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